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Playoffs?

Most playoff projections have SUU and Weber as locks from the big sky and either UM or NAU in, some have them both in, nine have EWU in. We need some help next weekend....I think the worst thing for us would be NAU and UM both winning and finishing 8-3 because I don’t think they will take 5 from the big sky, I do think they take 4
 
marceagfan5 said:
Most playoff projections have SUU and Weber as locks from the big sky and either UM or NAU in, some have them both in, nine have EWU in. We need some help next weekend....I think the worst thing for us would be NAU and UM both winning and finishing 8-3 because I don’t think they will take 5 from the big sky, I do think they take 4
Click to expand...

Agreed, if both lose and we win, we're in. I think we're even in if they split, but if both win, we are in trouble.
 
It'd a guarantee that UM gets in at 8-3 if they win the Brawl. They get in on name recognition and selling 25k tickets, fair enough. NAU should get in on record if they finish strong next week at 8-3 against SUU. SUU losing to NAU puts them at 8-3 and they deserve to be in too.

If we had beat Weber at home or SUU on the road we would be the lock right now.

I'd argue that NAU doesn't beat SUU, SUU is in and we have a good shot to get in over NAU on name recognition.
 
I don't think we'll make the playoffs this season at 7-4. Too many good teams on the bubble. But this won't even be a discussion if we don't take care of business on Saturday. FTV! Go Eags!
 
ewueagfan said:
I don't think we'll make the playoffs this season at 7-4. Too many good teams on the bubble. But this won't even be a discussion if we don't take care of business on Saturday. FTV! Go Eags!
Click to expand...

We're a 13 team conference that has historically gotten 4 bids since moving to such a huge format. We really could use some help with NAU losing to SUU. If that happens, I'd make us as a lock if we win on Saturday. Winning convincingly and some other action around the country would help cement the playoff bid. If NAU beats SUU, we're in a bit of trouble.

I've railed for years on how stupid we schedule. The argument in favor of scheduling ridiculously tough has been that 7-4 gets you in. If 7-4 proves not to get us in, we need to really rethink playing a BCS-conference team and a top FCS power each and every year. It's devastating to lose two non-con games in that scenario. That said, I'd sure as hell rather make the playoffs than win an argument.
 
Playoff Locks:

Big Sky: SUU, Weber
Big South: Winner of Kennesaw State v. Monmouth
CAA: JMU, SBU, Elon
MVFC: NDSU, SDSU
NEC: CCSU
OVC: JSU
Patriot: Lehigh
Pioneer: San Diego
SoCon: Wofford
SLC: UCA, SHSU

So 15 spots are spoken for.

Win and in:

Big Sky: NAU @ SUU (8-2)
CAA: UD @ Nova (4-6), UNH @ Albany (3-7)
MVFC: UNI @ ISUb (0-10), WIU @ SIU (4-6)
SoCon: Winner of Furman @ Samford (7-3)

If all these teams win that gets us to 21 spots taken, leaving 3 spots to be filled by:

Bubble:

Big Sky: EWU (6-4) v. PSU (0-10), Montana (7-3) @ MSU (4-6), Sac State (6-4) v Davis (5-5)
MVFC: ISU (6-4)) v. NDSU (9-1), USD v. SDSU (8-2)
Socon: Loser of Furman (7-3) @ Samford (7-3)
Big South: Loser of Monmouth (9-1) @ Kennesaw (9-1)
SLC: Nichols (8-3) @ SELA (5-5), McNeese (2-8)
OVC: Austin Peay (7-4) v. EIU (6-4). APSU is considered because they played 3 FBS, have a 12 game schedule and would finish 8-1 against FCS competition. Not likely, but the committee has been kind to the OVC #2 in the past.

The big question comes down to how the committee treats the two 9-2 SLC's and Big South compared to 7-4's from power conferences (like us). The SoS's for McNeese, Nicholls, Kennesaw, and Monmouth are not good, ranking from 73-83 in Massey. The best wins among all 4 are NSU beating McNeese, KSU beating Montana State, and KSU and MU beating Charleston Southern and Liberty. Still, multiple teams from these two conferences have won multiple games in the playoffs recently. Despite the weak schedules, they may not be regarded the same as 9-2 Patriot League runner ups that were left home in the past. These two conferences are more like the OVC (who has sucked in the playoffs other than JSU and a Jimmy Garoppolo led EIU). Hell, the committee gave a 7-4 EIU an at-large in 2015 not to mention many 9-win OVC runner-ups.

If NAU and Montana both lose it would be hard to imagine the committee not taking the BSC #3. However if they take even 1 from the SLC/BS it narrows the bubble and if they take all 3 we're in serious trouble. So on one hand, we want Montana to lose but on the other they're our best win at 8-3 and a playoff team which is important especially if we're being compared for one of the last 1 or 2 teams in.

If the favorites all win this week and the committee regards SoS and quality wins ahead of 9-2 records from weaker schedules, that leaves 4 spots to be divvied up between...

7-4 USD: best wins: 8-3 WIU, 6-5 YSU, 2-8 BGU (fbs) SoS: 6
8-3 Montana best wins: 7-4 NAU SoS: 30
7-4 EWU best wins: 8-3 Montana, 7-4 CSUS SoS: 4
7-4 NAU best wins: 6-5 ISUr, 7-4 CSUS SoS: 13
7-4 Furman best wins: 7-5 WCU, 7-4 Colgate, 6-5 Mercer SoS: 36

or

7-4 Samford best wins: 9-2 Wofford, 10-1 Kennesaw. SoS: 38

If you throw the rest into the mix:

8-3 Nichols best wins: 9-2 McNeese. SoS: 73 Most likely out now.
9-2 McNeese best wins: 7-3 Alcorn State SoS: 77
9-2 Kennesaw best wins: 6-4 Libery, 5-5 CSU SoS: 83

or

9-2 Monmouth best wins: 6-4 Liberty, 5-5 CSU SoS: 88
8-4 Lets Go Peay best wins: 6-5 EIU, 6-5 UTM, 6-5 TNST SoS: 41
 
kalm said:
Playoff Locks:

Big Sky: SUU, Weber
Big South: Winner of Kennesaw State v. Monmouth
CAA: JMU, SBU, Elon
MVFC: NDSU, SDSU
NEC: CCSU
OVC: JSU
Patriot: Lehigh
Pioneer: San Diego
SoCon: Wofford
SLC: UCA, SHSU

So 15 spots are spoken for.

Win and in:

Big Sky: NAU @ SUU (8-2)
CAA: UD @ Nova (4-6), UNH @ Albany (3-7)
MVFC: UNI @ ISUb (0-10), WIU @ SIU (4-6)
SoCon: Winner of Furman @ Samford (7-3)

If all these teams win that gets us to 21 spots taken, leaving 3 spots to be filled by:

Bubble:

Big Sky: EWU (6-4) v. PSU (0-10), Montana (7-3) @ MSU (4-6), Sac State (6-4) v Davis (5-5)
MVFC: ISU (6-4)) v. NDSU (9-1), USD v. SDSU (8-2)
Socon: Loser of Furman (7-3) @ Samford (7-3)
Big South: Loser of Monmouth (9-1) @ Kennesaw (9-1)
SLC: Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5), McNeese (2-8)
OVC: Austin Peay (7-4) v. EIU (6-4). APSU is considered because they played 3 FBS, have a 12 game schedule and would finish 8-1 against FCS competition. Not likely, but the committee has been kind to the OVC #2 in the past.

The big question comes down to how the committee treats the two 9-2 SLC's and Big South compared to 7-4's from power conferences (like us). The SoS's for McNeese, Nicholls, Kennesaw, and Monmouth are not good, ranking from 73-83 in Massey. The best wins among all 4 are NSU beating McNeese, KSU beating Montana State, and KSU and MU beating Charleston Southern and Liberty. Still, multiple teams from these two conferences have won multiple games in the playoffs recently. Despite the weak schedules, they may not be regarded the same as 9-2 Patriot League runner ups that were left home in the past. These two conferences are more like the OVC (who has sucked in the playoffs other than JSU and a Jimmy Garoppolo led EIU). Hell, the committee gave a 7-4 EIU an at-large in 2015 not to mention many 9-win OVC runner-ups.

If NAU and Montana both lose it would be hard to imagine the committee not taking the BSC #3. However if they take even 1 from the SLC/BS it narrows the bubble and if they take all 3 we're in serious trouble. So on one hand, we want Montana to lose but on the other they're our best win at 8-3 and a playoff team which is important especially if we're being compared for one of the last 1 or 2 teams in.

If the favorites all win this week and the committee regards SoS and quality wins ahead of 9-2 records from weaker schedules, that leaves 4 spots to be divvied up between...

7-4 USD: best wins: 8-3 WIU, 6-5 YSU, 2-8 BGU (fbs) SoS: 6
8-3 Montana best wins: 7-4 NAU SoS: 30
7-4 EWU best wins: 8-3 Montana, 7-4 CSUS SoS: 4
7-4 NAU best wins: 6-5 ISUr, 7-4 CSUS SoS: 13
7-4 Furman best wins: 7-5 WCU, 7-4 Colgate, 6-5 Mercer SoS: 36

or

7-4 Samford best wins: 9-2 Wofford, 10-1 Kennesaw. SoS: 38

If you throw the rest into the mix:

9-2 Nichols best wins: 9-2 McNeese. SoS: 73
9-2 McNeese best wins: 7-3 Alcorn State SoS: 77

edit: Have to take a break, will complete the rest in a short while,
Click to expand...

Kalm right now:

o-SIMPSON-MATH-facebook-1t7ocrb.jpg
 
With Kalm's equation out of the way it is about time to get Dopa stirred up in one word......
SCHEDULE :coffee:
 
FormerEag said:
kalm said:
Playoff Locks:

Big Sky: SUU, Weber
Big South: Winner of Kennesaw State v. Monmouth
CAA: JMU, SBU, Elon
MVFC: NDSU, SDSU
NEC: CCSU
OVC: JSU
Patriot: Lehigh
Pioneer: San Diego
SoCon: Wofford
SLC: UCA, SHSU

So 15 spots are spoken for.

Win and in:

Big Sky: NAU @ SUU (8-2)
CAA: UD @ Nova (4-6), UNH @ Albany (3-7)
MVFC: UNI @ ISUb (0-10), WIU @ SIU (4-6)
SoCon: Winner of Furman @ Samford (7-3)

If all these teams win that gets us to 21 spots taken, leaving 3 spots to be filled by:

Bubble:

Big Sky: EWU (6-4) v. PSU (0-10), Montana (7-3) @ MSU (4-6), Sac State (6-4) v Davis (5-5)
MVFC: ISU (6-4)) v. NDSU (9-1), USD v. SDSU (8-2)
Socon: Loser of Furman (7-3) @ Samford (7-3)
Big South: Loser of Monmouth (9-1) @ Kennesaw (9-1)
SLC: Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5), McNeese (2-8)
OVC: Austin Peay (7-4) v. EIU (6-4). APSU is considered because they played 3 FBS, have a 12 game schedule and would finish 8-1 against FCS competition. Not likely, but the committee has been kind to the OVC #2 in the past.

The big question comes down to how the committee treats the two 9-2 SLC's and Big South compared to 7-4's from power conferences (like us). The SoS's for McNeese, Nicholls, Kennesaw, and Monmouth are not good, ranking from 73-83 in Massey. The best wins among all 4 are NSU beating McNeese, KSU beating Montana State, and KSU and MU beating Charleston Southern and Liberty. Still, multiple teams from these two conferences have won multiple games in the playoffs recently. Despite the weak schedules, they may not be regarded the same as 9-2 Patriot League runner ups that were left home in the past. These two conferences are more like the OVC (who has sucked in the playoffs other than JSU and a Jimmy Garoppolo led EIU). Hell, the committee gave a 7-4 EIU an at-large in 2015 not to mention many 9-win OVC runner-ups.

If NAU and Montana both lose it would be hard to imagine the committee not taking the BSC #3. However if they take even 1 from the SLC/BS it narrows the bubble and if they take all 3 we're in serious trouble. So on one hand, we want Montana to lose but on the other they're our best win at 8-3 and a playoff team which is important especially if we're being compared for one of the last 1 or 2 teams in.

If the favorites all win this week and the committee regards SoS and quality wins ahead of 9-2 records from weaker schedules, that leaves 4 spots to be divvied up between...

7-4 USD: best wins: 8-3 WIU, 6-5 YSU, 2-8 BGU (fbs) SoS: 6
8-3 Montana best wins: 7-4 NAU SoS: 30
7-4 EWU best wins: 8-3 Montana, 7-4 CSUS SoS: 4
7-4 NAU best wins: 6-5 ISUr, 7-4 CSUS SoS: 13
7-4 Furman best wins: 7-5 WCU, 7-4 Colgate, 6-5 Mercer SoS: 36

or

7-4 Samford best wins: 9-2 Wofford, 10-1 Kennesaw. SoS: 38

If you throw the rest into the mix:

9-2 Nichols best wins: 9-2 McNeese. SoS: 73
9-2 McNeese best wins: 7-3 Alcorn State SoS: 77

edit: Have to take a break, will complete the rest in a short while,
Click to expand...

Kalm right now:

o-SIMPSON-MATH-facebook-1t7ocrb.jpg
Click to expand...

:rofl:

You don't know how much I identify with Homer!
 
That's not a playoff selection formula. I've seen IT before. This is an actual post game calculation to create the formula for a counter clockwise pass thrown by a right handed QB into a up-drafting 7.96 MPH 107 degree side wind, tipped four times by the defense and five times by the offense and bounced off the ref's head before being intercepted in the right hand by left handed weak safety. Result: Eags win!
 
tomq04 said:
It'd a guarantee that UM gets in at 8-3 if they win the Brawl. They get in on name recognition and selling 25k tickets, fair enough. NAU should get in on record if they finish strong next week at 8-3 against SUU. SUU losing to NAU puts them at 8-3 and they deserve to be in too.

If we had beat Weber at home or SUU on the road we would be the lock right now.

I'd argue that NAU doesn't beat SUU, SUU is in and we have a good shot to get in over NAU on name recognition.
Click to expand...

This.
 
LDopaPDX said:
ewueagfan said:
I don't think we'll make the playoffs this season at 7-4. Too many good teams on the bubble. But this won't even be a discussion if we don't take care of business on Saturday. FTV! Go Eags!
Click to expand...

We're a 13 team conference that has historically gotten 4 bids since moving to such a huge format. We really could use some help with NAU losing to SUU. If that happens, I'd make us as a lock if we win on Saturday. Winning convincingly and some other action around the country would help cement the playoff bid. If NAU beats SUU, we're in a bit of trouble.

I've railed for years on how stupid we schedule. The argument in favor of scheduling ridiculously tough has been that 7-4 gets you in. If 7-4 proves not to get us in, we need to really rethink playing a BCS-conference team and a top FCS power each and every year. It's devastating to lose two non-con games in that scenario. That said, I'd sure as hell rather make the playoffs than win an argument.
Click to expand...

Big sky has only gotten in 4 teams twice since the expansion, so not all that common. We normally get 3 and with the Sky ranked behind both the mvfc and the caa this year for conference rank, I think we will only get 3 again. Some losses could happen to bubble teams to change that. In hoping for 4 because even a 8-3 Griz team isn't a lock when the committee starts comparing a 8-3 NAU or a 7-4 EWU.
 
We're both (Griz and Eags) scoreboard watching a bit this weekend. It is a bit interesting comparing the Griz and EWU resumes this season. EWU has the head to head road win plus a one to two game tougher OOC schedule. Considering we both win this weekend, UM and EWU will have identical conference records with EWU missing NAU and UM missing SUU. Tough call for the committee.

Looks like SE LA is going to knock of Nichols. Thats a plus for the big sky bubble teams.
 
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