I'm pretty sure Cal Poly ran the triple option before Baldwin. It probably took some time to get players that fit his scheme especially with the academic standards players have to meet to even be able to play at Cal Poly. It may have been part of the problem at Cal Berkeley when he was OC, that and Justin Wilcox prioritizing defense. Cal Poly seems to be doing a lot better this season which could be due in part to Baldwin recruiting and hiring of coaches. Baldwin is probably why Paul Wulff is head coach.
As far as Arizona State goes he was not given a fair chance. He inherited a shitty offense from the previous coaching staff. They had a ton of injuries at QB and oline, they were down to their third string QB at one point. He was on an entirely new staff. Dillingham took over play calling after 3 games after they failed to score 0 points against Fresno State and he did not do a lot better the rest of the season. They got blown out by Utah, Arizona and Oregon.
I don't see how you see one year in the CFL as a failure. Might want to explain that one. He quit for health reasons, I don't see any reason to think differently. If he stayed he'd literally be coaching Vernon Adams. I don't think that dude needs much coaching. The dude that replaced Baldwin was Dakota Prukop, the QB from Montana State who has significantly less coaching experience.
I don't know this Charlie Rangle and Idaho State situation is. Looking at his record I don't know why you bring him up. He had no head coaching experience or even FCS experience before Idaho State. He never coached at Idaho State before becoming HC. I don't see how he fits into this scenario at all except the dropped down from FBS.
I think a lot more apt analogy would be Bobby Hauck. He went to UNLV for 4 seasons, went 15-48, objectively failed at HC there. Then coached special teams at San Diego State for a few seasons, returned to Montana and is doing great. It did take him a season to turn things around though and get back to the playoffs. The same reasons Hauck is doing well are the same reasons Baldwin could do well coming back. He is a known commodity at Eastern and the state of Washington so he could jump right back into recruiting. He knows the culture, he knows expectations and how things work. At Eastern he would be given the freedom to recruit who he wants away from academic restrictions or the approval of a head coach. If anything his time in the FBS will be an asset. Also, call it what it is, some people just do better at lower levels of competition.
Could Baldwin not work out? That's a definite possibility. But anyone they hire could not work out. If they hired Chris Fisk maybe he can't handle the pressure of D1. Maybe Troy Taylor harasses female staffers at Eastern like at Stanford and has to be fired. Its the risk you take with any hire. Also, I don't have to explain to anyone here that Eastern doesn't have a ton of money to make a big hire either.