Well... hmm. I guess the way I look at it, (admittedly I do not know as much detail about other teams then some of you, but I do know some) is that I feel we are a much better team this year then we were last year. Our defense has some very key players back, and our offense has a QB that has been here learning ISU football for 3 years. That's now equal to the time as Justin Arias. Running more, and slowing down a bit is going to help keep the defense more fresh in addition to just being a better defense than last year. We're deep at running back, and solid in the middle with receivers (Josh Cook, KW, etc) I think we will have some surprise skill at outside WR, X with Pat Carter, and Hagen Graves plus a few more. There's so much more to mention, but the short is I feel were better then last year. Now, that takes me to everyone else. Other than NAU, I don't really feel anyone else has grown a ton. So considering my opinion (just an opinion) that we have improved a decent amount, then we are making headway in the Win column. The main reason why, is last year (as bad as only one conference win is) we had #5 in the nation EWU right where we wanted them, until Kramer I think gave into peer pressure and tried to have a 2 minute offense just before half and tried to score and push a dagger instead of taking a knee and going into the locker room at half sitting pretty. Then EWU scored on us instead. The point being, we can play with those guys. We played them pretty well even so. We played EWU REALLY well in 2014 away as well. Next, we as a "bad" team last year all but beat Montana. (We all know that lose too well) the point being, we played two top teir teams pretty well last year, and we're much better this year. And we did beat North Dakota. I feel they are much the same teams in skill level then they were last year. You can say the same with Portland.
So, I say we beat SFU, Sac States, North Dakota, SUU, Weber, then we steal one of the NAU, EWU, Montana, or Portland. I don't know what one, but we will take one of those wins.
I know it sounds hopeful UFTC, but it makes sense on some small level. I think you're right about winning that first Sac State game, and then we need to use that as momentum into Portland. If we can steal that one on the road, then we are primed to have a GREAT season EVEN with a tough schedule.