PREDICTION THREAD EWU 48 @ MONTANA 41 FTG

[luckyintheorder]

Know many are feeling that the ship may have righted itself after putting a beating on Fordham in NY Saturday. Not looking for a TOYA argument.

Not unhappy with the result but a couple of key points:
D gave up several big pass plays against a HS team without a running game
5 TURNOVERS (-7 this season, 119th in FCS)
Stupid penalties
Key injuries on DL, LB, DB, WR at a minimum, not sure about the OL

Good points:
May have found a returner in Dorton (finally someone who looked like they wanted to make a play)
OL play hasn't sucked
No one wants to lose to the Griz

Expect Montana to focus for this home contest especially on Defense. Their games to date don't give us much data except their QB went down and is likely out for the season. Going to make the assumption they are better this year. We know they have enough athlete's to beat the Eags.

In order for Eastern to go in here and get a win, 1st downs have to be productive with some good first down throws and runs, no drops by the WR's on catchable balls to keep the sticks moving, protect the ball and score TD's inside the red zone. Defense should put early pressure on the new QB and LB's need to stay in their zones to reduce large gains on misdirection running plays. THIS LIST IS SHORT AND THERE IS NO INDICATION THIS TEAM CAN MINIMIZE MISTAKES. If they play loose, make some big plays and get help on special teams there is a chance.

I believe Eastern has plenty of talent, but with so many key injuries it is going to take a special effort from the defense line to get a W. Special like 5 sacks, 11 hurries and 10 TFL's

Wish the ship was righted, don't think we can know that. Expect a close contest unless we turn the ball over.

Based on the season to date, Montana wins this game 3 out of 5 times.

EWU 40% chance, Montana 60% chance and those are homer odds. If we score 35 and win the TO's battle the game is a coin flip.

Given any new information, insight or inspiration will update with a score later this week.

 

[LDopaPDX]

Yeah, we have a lot of things to clean up. Injuries are at critical levels. You'd have to think most of these guys will come back, but it seems like our injuries always take more weeks than you'd expect.

Montana is an enigma. They've played two very soft teams and done what they were supposed to do. The only legit team they played absolutely clobbered them, but UW may be so good this year that isn't much of a measuring stick either.

I'd say the game, on paper, assuming our injury situation doesn't improve, is a coin toss on a neutral field. Missoula refs are always good for two or three absurd calls in a game, so that likely pushes the game slightly into their favor. We can tip the scales by putting our best bodies on the field.

 

[tomq04]

I think turnover margin is going to be the primary factor. Our playmakers can score, and defense can make stops, but if we are fumbling and throwing silly picks it will be too much to over come.

As long as we don't beat ourselves in theory we should have a 50/50 shot at their house.

 

[wrrolling]

I don't think there is any drop off with the RS Freshman QB that they have. EWU will need to be able to get pressure again with 4 guys. They get the ball out fast and blitz's would need to be disguised. They will still dink and dunk, but have a few more deep threats this year.

On defense I think they are pretty weak. They do have their DUI linebacker back, but their DBs have given up passing yards to some pretty weak teams. Their game against UW was interesting, they effectively did not score (1 TD on a INT that was a result of a no call PI) but they moved the ball some. Their pass game bogged down as the field would shrink. I think EWU can make it hard for them in the redzone, so don't give up the big plays.

I think everyone here has said it, but this game is pretty impossible to predict with the injuries, new players and inconsistent results and schedules for both teams thus far. The one thing that is for sure though, if the Eags are -5 in the TO margin in this game like they were this past weekend, for a night game in Montana, it won't be pretty.

 

[luckyintheorder]

Why does this one feel like... although there is plenty of doubt on the UM board as to the outcome..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r21CMDyPuGo

 

[joemon10]

Just looked at the depth chart for Montana, Matt Meyer is out, Lavao is out for the season, a backup TE is now a backup tackle and a redshirt OT is now a backup Guard. Tiuli is still out on the DL.....Not looking good. I'll never understand why EWU doesn't recruit more lineman. Hard to see EWU winning this one.

 

[ewueagle2010]

I really don't understand the doom and gloom so far on this thread. If both teams play to their capabilities, EWU is the better team.

 

[GoldenEagle]

I think the EAGS are going to control this game. I’ve watched every game Montana has played this season. First, throw out the UW game because the Huskies toyed with UM like a cat with a mouse. In the other two games when they played weak teams I noticed how easily the opposing QBs burnt the UM secondary. UM is so desperately thin at safety they are playing two injured safeties, one safety with a club cast on his hand, the kind you see an O Lineman wear.

Early in the Savannah State game the SSU offense moved the ball and burnt the UM secondary. When UM started blitzing LBs and hitting the SSU QB the SSU offense folded. The EAGS offense will not fold and Gage Gubrud will pick the blitzes up, adjust and torch the UM secondary. I think receivers will make the catches. I think the UM DC will have to pick his poison and decide which way he wants to see his secondary get beat, with little pressure and a slow death or blitz and get burnt big. The UM DLine pass rush looks pretty anemic, so I think any pressure will have to come from their LBs which opens up the middle of the field.

I was surprised at how often the Savannah State DLine was able to collapse the UM OL. I think our DLine could have a good game. I think the EAGS need to stunt early and combined with good DLine penetration, pressure their young QB. He is untested and the EAGS need to get to him early.

EAGS control this game.

EAGS 35
UM 17

 

[EWU98]

I think all the doom and gloom comes from our last performance in Montana. That game still leaves a sour taste in my mouth. I am surprised my TV survived.

 

[mtgrizfankb1]

I think the EAGS are going to control this game. I’ve watched every game Montana has played this season. First, throw out the UW game because the Huskies toyed with UM like a cat with a mouse. In the other two games when they played weak teams I noticed how easily the opposing QBs burnt the UM secondary. UM is so desperately thin at safety they are playing two injured safeties, one safety with a club cast on his hand, the kind you see an O Lineman wear.

Early in the Savannah State game the SSU offense moved the ball and burnt the UM secondary. When UM started blitzing LBs and hitting the SSU QB the SSU offense folded. The EAGS offense will not fold and Gage Gubrud will pick the blitzes up, adjust and torch the UM secondary. I think receivers will make the catches. I think the UM DC will have to pick his poison and decide which way he wants to see his secondary get beat, with little pressure and a slow death or blitz and get burnt big. The UM DLine pass rush looks pretty anemic, so I think any pressure will have to come from their LBs which opens up the middle of the field.

I was surprised at how often the Savannah State DLine was able to collapse the UM OL. I think our DLine could have a good game. I think the EAGS need to stunt early and combined with good DLine penetration, pressure their young QB. He is untested and the EAGS need to get to him early.

EAGS control this game.

EAGS 35
UM 17

I think you are misleading your peers here. UM secondary had 3 blown coverages vs valpo with those safety's you mentioned out. The DC adjusted the D accordingly and we got the 2 starters back. We then didn't give up any balls over the top to UW or SSU. SSU got picked on their first drive of the game. Then picked up 3 points before the half and that was it. Yes they got 160 yards passing with 44% completion and sacked 8 times. Not exactly tearing up the secondary. That being said EWU is way better than anything SSU had but to assume EWU is gonna burn us deep because of our play so far I think would be incorrect. EWU has not been very successful deep this year. They were great this last week on crossing routes and under routes and YAC. I think it will be a god matchup on both sides of the ball and EWU probably has the slight advantage

 

[ewueagle2010]

I think all the doom and gloom comes from our last performance in Montana. That game still leaves a sour taste in my mouth. I am surprised my TV survived.

I think that may have something to do with it. I was there in person, and it was one of the worst sporting experiences I've ever had. However, this is a new year and I don't think that game will effect this one.

 

[GoldenEagle]

I think the EAGS are going to control this game. I’ve watched every game Montana has played this season. First, throw out the UW game because the Huskies toyed with UM like a cat with a mouse. In the other two games when they played weak teams I noticed how easily the opposing QBs burnt the UM secondary. UM is so desperately thin at safety they are playing two injured safeties, one safety with a club cast on his hand, the kind you see an O Lineman wear.

Early in the Savannah State game the SSU offense moved the ball and burnt the UM secondary. When UM started blitzing LBs and hitting the SSU QB the SSU offense folded. The EAGS offense will not fold and Gage Gubrud will pick the blitzes up, adjust and torch the UM secondary. I think receivers will make the catches. I think the UM DC will have to pick his poison and decide which way he wants to see his secondary get beat, with little pressure and a slow death or blitz and get burnt big. The UM DLine pass rush looks pretty anemic, so I think any pressure will have to come from their LBs which opens up the middle of the field.

I was surprised at how often the Savannah State DLine was able to collapse the UM OL. I think our DLine could have a good game. I think the EAGS need to stunt early and combined with good DLine penetration, pressure their young QB. He is untested and the EAGS need to get to him early.

EAGS control this game.

EAGS 35
UM 17

I think you are misleading your peers here. UM secondary had 3 blown coverages vs valpo with those safety's you mentioned out. The DC adjusted the D accordingly and we got the 2 starters back. We then didn't give up any balls over the top to UW or SSU. SSU got picked on their first drive of the game. Then picked up 3 points before the half and that was it. Yes they got 160 yards passing with 44% completion and sacked 8 times. Not exactly tearing up the secondary. That being said EWU is way better than anything SSU had but to assume EWU is gonna burn us deep because of our play so far I think would be incorrect. EWU has not been very successful deep this year. They were great this last week on crossing routes and under routes and YAC. I think it will be a god matchup on both sides of the ball and EWU probably has the slight advantage

Read my post again. I did not say the UM secondary got beat deep. I said SUU moved the ball by passing on UM early. When the QB for SUU had time they moved the ball against your secondary. Once UM started blitzing him (hence the 8 sacks) he could not handle the pressure and game over. He could not adjust the way Gubrud will. So, I think your DC will have to pick his poison. The EAGS will not need to beat your secondary deep to score.

 

[SeattleBobcat]

I hope you guys beat the pink out of their panties. UM's D is atrocious this year and their offense is pedestrian.
Good luck Eags

EWU- 63
UM- 27

 

[DefendtheRed]

With a banged up o line and missing several key players on defense I don't think we're going to have the horses to win this race. Going with UM 48 EWU 24.

 

[mtgrizfankb1]

I think the EAGS are going to control this game. I’ve watched every game Montana has played this season. First, throw out the UW game because the Huskies toyed with UM like a cat with a mouse. In the other two games when they played weak teams I noticed how easily the opposing QBs burnt the UM secondary. UM is so desperately thin at safety they are playing two injured safeties, one safety with a club cast on his hand, the kind you see an O Lineman wear.

Early in the Savannah State game the SSU offense moved the ball and burnt the UM secondary. When UM started blitzing LBs and hitting the SSU QB the SSU offense folded. The EAGS offense will not fold and Gage Gubrud will pick the blitzes up, adjust and torch the UM secondary. I think receivers will make the catches. I think the UM DC will have to pick his poison and decide which way he wants to see his secondary get beat, with little pressure and a slow death or blitz and get burnt big. The UM DLine pass rush looks pretty anemic, so I think any pressure will have to come from their LBs which opens up the middle of the field.

I was surprised at how often the Savannah State DLine was able to collapse the UM OL. I think our DLine could have a good game. I think the EAGS need to stunt early and combined with good DLine penetration, pressure their young QB. He is untested and the EAGS need to get to him early.

EAGS control this game.

EAGS 35
UM 17

I think you are misleading your peers here. UM secondary had 3 blown coverages vs valpo with those safety's you mentioned out. The DC adjusted the D accordingly and we got the 2 starters back. We then didn't give up any balls over the top to UW or SSU. SSU got picked on their first drive of the game. Then picked up 3 points before the half and that was it. Yes they got 160 yards passing with 44% completion and sacked 8 times. Not exactly tearing up the secondary. That being said EWU is way better than anything SSU had but to assume EWU is gonna burn us deep because of our play so far I think would be incorrect. EWU has not been very successful deep this year. They were great this last week on crossing routes and under routes and YAC. I think it will be a god matchup on both sides of the ball and EWU probably has the slight advantage

Read my post again. I did not say the UM secondary got beat deep. I said SUU moved the ball by passing on UM early. When the QB for SUU had time they moved the ball against your secondary. Once UM started blitzing him (hence the 8 sacks) he could not handle the pressure and game over. He could not adjust the way Gubrud will. So, I think your DC will have to pick his poison. The EAGS will not need to beat your secondary deep to score.

Sorry I thought when you said "burnt the secondary" and "get burnt big" you were referring to getting beat over the top. My bad. I like how you got defensive when I even said that EWU played well last week underneath and with YAC and EWU had the advantage. Forgive me for not thinking that what EWU WRs and Oline has shown so far has just been amazing and will easily beat the crap out of UM. Every opponent we have played...and yes it's only 2 bad FCS teams and a FBS team...all said the Montana Dline played great. If you watched the savanna game as you suggest you did you would know that most Montana pressure was with 4 lineman or maybe one linebacker. We very rarely have been blitzing 6+ like years past. However we did often run a spy with an extreamly mobile QB, who collapsed and got stops and sacks. Anyways...I still think EWU has an advantage and will be a close game it will come down to T.Os from EWU cause I know Montana will give it away atleast once. Does EWU play clean for the first time this year? Or do they continue to make mental mistakes and lose to a team they should probably beat? Time will tell

 

[Griz til I die]

I hope you guys beat the pink out of their panties. UM's D is atrocious this year and their offense is pedestrian.
Good luck Eags

EWU- 63
UM- 27

Oh really? Coming from the team that's currently 0-2 and a QB who's one big hit away from never playing the game again. I'll put money on it right now that Jensen will have better stats then Murray this year cause he's trash. Your just lucky SDSU played their worst half of football ever in the 2nd half against you losers, because I can tell you right now that's not gonna happen against UND especially at their house.

 

[GoldenEagle]

I hope you guys beat the pink out of their panties. UM's D is atrocious this year and their offense is pedestrian.
Good luck Eags

EWU- 63
UM- 27

Oh really? Coming from the team that's currently 0-2 and a QB who's one big hit away from never playing the game again. I'll put money on it right now that Jensen will have better stats then Murray this year cause he's trash. Your just lucky SDSU played their worst half of football ever in the 2nd half against you losers, because I can tell you right now that's not gonna happen against UND especially at their house.

Thank you SeattleBobcat!

 

[Get'emGriz]

I hope you guys beat the pink out of their panties. UM's D is atrocious this year and their offense is pedestrian.
Good luck Eags

EWU- 63
UM- 27

Oh really? Coming from the team that's currently 0-2 and a QB who's one big hit away from never playing the game again. I'll put money on it right now that Jensen will have better stats then Murray this year cause he's trash. Your just lucky SDSU played their worst half of football ever in the 2nd half against you losers, because I can tell you right now that's not gonna happen against UND especially at their house.

SDSU is known for having 2nd half collapses in Montana...

2009 playoffs...

 

[SeattleBobcat]

I hope you guys beat the pink out of their panties. UM's D is atrocious this year and their offense is pedestrian.
Good luck Eags

EWU- 63
UM- 27

Oh really? Coming from the team that's currently 0-2 and a QB who's one big hit away from never playing the game again. I'll put money on it right now that Jensen will have better stats then Murray this year cause he's trash. Your just lucky SDSU played their worst half of football ever in the 2nd half against you losers, because I can tell you right now that's not gonna happen against UND especially at their house.

Looks like someone's already spotting a little bit. Take 2 midol and go find a pillow you can cuddle and have a good cry dude.

 

[Griz til I die]

I hope you guys beat the pink out of their panties. UM's D is atrocious this year and their offense is pedestrian.
Good luck Eags

EWU- 63
UM- 27

Oh really? Coming from the team that's currently 0-2 and a QB who's one big hit away from never playing the game again. I'll put money on it right now that Jensen will have better stats then Murray this year cause he's trash. Your just lucky SDSU played their worst half of football ever in the 2nd half against you losers, because I can tell you right now that's not gonna happen against UND especially at their house.

Looks like someone's already spotting a little bit. Take 2 midol and go find a pillow you can cuddle and have a good cry dude.

K I guess your not man enough to bet me then. Let me know how the rest of your season goes dude.