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PSU VS UCLA

WiViking

WiViking

Active member
I've posted how I think PSU might fare against the mighty Bruins.

http://www.bigskyfans.com/2007/11/05/psu-vs-ucla

PSU VS UCLA
UCLA is #2 in the nation. Does that mean that they’ll beat PSU by 40? Perhaps. However, if J.R. Moore is healthy by this weekend, PSU should have match ups that seem favorable for the game to stay close. Rather than match up the starters, then the bench, I’ll just go by position.

Center: Kevin Love/Lorenzo Mata/ VS Scott Morrison/J.R. Moore
Morrison will have the height advantage, however, the question is whether he can compete with Love’s power and whether he is mobile enough to cover his outside shots. Most likely, UCLA will outscore PSU, however, PSU might be able to compete on the boards. Morrison cannot get into foul trouble if PSU wants to have a chance.
Advantage: UCLA

Power Forward: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute/Alfred Aboya VS Tyrell Mara/Julius Thomas
If there is anywhere where UCLA really outclasses PSU, it is here. Any one of the three for UCLA would start at PSU. If Mara can stay out of foul trouble, it would greatly help the Vikings’ chances. Again, UCLA will outscore PSU here, so the Viks will have to make the points up somewhere else.
Advantage: UCLA

Small Forward: Josh Shipp/Chace Stanback VS Deonte Huff/Kyle Coston
This position is one that the Viks need to win the battle at if they expect to win. However, I think Huff will need to use his physical tools to score, because his outside range doesn’t appear to have arrived yet this year. Shipp, on the other hand, is a shooter, and Huff will need to press to try to lock him down. If Huff gets into foul trouble, Coston’s outside shot will be essential.
Advantage: Push

Shooting Guard: Russell Westbrook/Nikola Dragovic VS Dupree Lucas/Andre Murray
PSU should outscore the Bruins here. The Viks will need the same type of effort they got from Lucas and Murray in the exhibition with 20 points each. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but they should both do well.
Advantage: PSU

Point Guard: Darren Collison VS Jeremiah Dominguez/Mickey Polis
Dominguez should get some steals, but Collison is far too strong for him to cover. Dominguez should be able to keep up, but Collison will likely force him into foul trouble.
Advantage: UCLA

Prediction: UCLA wins 84-61Last edited by on 2007-11-06, 12:53; edited 2 times in total
 
Interesting…but you don’t really know much about the Bruins, do you?

Let me fill you in about a few parts of the puzzle you’re missing…and therefore way off about:

First, note that James Keefe and Michael Roll are both out injured until mid-December…You won’t see them…

Neither will you see DeAndre Robinson…until mop-up time. DeAndre is a walk-on who doesn’t get close to cracking the depth chart…

The starting 2-guard is Russell Westbrook…and he has been simply sensational. Rumor is he may be headed straight to the NBA after THIS (his sophomore) season. Last night against Chico State, Collison was out with a minor injury, so Russell ran the point…scored 22 points and simply blew past people…some incredible dunks that you won’t see from anyone else’s PG…or even off-guard…

Starting at the 2-guard last night, we had 6′ 7″ Nikola Dragovic…and he is a terror from behind the 3-point line…and difficult for any 2-guard to defend…and after him, we brought in 6′8″ Chase Stanback, last year’s LA City Player of the Year…who scored in double figures and played an all-around great game…

So, if you were expecting to have an advantage match-up over Roll and Robinson, forget it…The 3 guys playing the position will run rings around your guy…

What you will see is a starting five of Collison, Westbrook, Shipp, Mbah a Moute and Love…Which, in my thinking, gives the Bruins a substantial edge at EVERY position…That’s a complete starting five of likely future NBA players (unfortunately, a few leaving for the NBA sooner than we would like)…

BTW, whatever gave you the idea you had a “push” at the small forward spot with Shipp? Huff may be your best player…and he was a dangedgood JC player (But, we aren’t in JC land anymore)…but Shipp was a Top 50 national recruit out of high school, has a height and weight advantage over Huff and will likely be the Bruins’ leading scorer and “go-to” guy this year…

Anyway, back to the rotation…When Collison or Westbrook goes out, Howland is likely NOT putting in a back-up guard (Roll would have possibly come in, but, he’ll be out)…The Bruins will simply get BIGGER…either putting in Dragovic or Stanback at the 2-guard…or moving Shipp to the 2-guard and “super-sizing” the front line with Aboya or Mata and moving Mbah a Moute to the small forward slot (Luc, BTW, can defend or play ALL FIVE positions…He was a PG in high school, if you can picture that)…

I usually won’t go out on a limb like this…and don’t mean to disrespect your team–they are a very good team on the level of basketball you guys are at…BUT, in this case, I am expecting a ROUT…

Not only do I see a large advantage on each one-on-one match-up, I also know that basketball is not a one-on-one game…especially the way Howland’s Bruin teams play it…

The Bruin defense is the real key…and you guys have undersized, inconsistent guards…Collison and Westbrook are a pair of future NBA guards…they are incredibly quick and athletic…You will have trouble getting into your offense…

The other key to the Bruin defense is the rotation and double-teaming in the post…the traps are sufficating and the other team usually gets flustered into a high number of turnovers…and this year’s Bruin team has great height and size and depth inside…and Kevin Love is very agile fr a big guy…

And of course, the other issue is DEPTH…even with a couple of guys out injured, we’ve got reserves who would start at most other schools…We have walk-ons who some mid-majors would have considered top recruits…

I’ve just sat through the Bruins’ two “exhibition” games–111-61 over an Azusa Pacific team ranked in the top 10 in their division…and 93-55 over Chico State while playing the entire game without Collison, Shipp, Roll or Keefe…and neither game was THAT close…The Bruins cleared the bench and had a team of walk-ons playing with several minutes to go in each…

This team is primed for the season…picture last season’s Final Four team with everyone back except Arron Afflalo (and the guy replacing him is maybe just as good, but FASTER and more athletic)…and the addition of Love and Stanback–two extremely high level recruits…Now, picture last year’s defensive and perimeter-oriented offensive half court team…but suddenly able to RUN and with a scoring threat in the low post…

Sorry, Vikings…but, don’t worry, you’ll have better nights than this Friday…
 
Bruin Steve said:
Interesting…but you don’t really know much about the Bruins, do you?
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This is totally unnecessary, I'm not a journalist, or the official team blogger. You clearly know just as little about the Vikings. As to the rest of your comments:

I edited the post, but I am not convinced that UCLA will dominate at every position. As a fan of college basketball, you should know that on any given night, different players step up, and sometimes the less talented one wins the battle. As to Shipp, I am convinced he has great talent, and should dominate most of the season. However, I don't see that happening in this particular game.

Huff is not the Vikings' best player. He has been in a few games, but Lucas is usually the better of the two.
 
I really appreciate Bruin Steve's insights and didn't take offense from his post. UCLA is tough, and I'll be looking for a moral victory in this one.
 
WiViking said:
Bruin Steve said:
Interesting…but you don’t really know much about the Bruins, do you?
Click to expand...
/users/31/07/37/smiles/246125.gif
This is totally unnecessary, I'm not a journalist, or the official team blogger. You clearly know just as little about the Vikings. As to the rest of your comments:

I edited the post, but I am not convinced that UCLA will dominate at every position. As a fan of college basketball, you should know that on any given night, different players step up, and sometimes the less talented one wins the battle. As to Shipp, I am convinced he has great talent, and should dominate most of the season. However, I don't see that happening in this particular game.

Huff is not the Vikings' best player. He has been in a few games, but Lucas is usually the better of the two.
Click to expand...

I'm sorry about that opening...I guess it came off sounding a bit rough...and I really didn't intend it that way. I was really just trying to point out that there were a few injuries/posoitions changes/depth chart issues you clearly weren't aware of. I meant no ill will and actually appreciated that at least one Portland State fan took the time out to post something of substance regarding the game and thus inviting comment and debate. It's the sort of stuff I love about the internet...and minus the errors I enjoyed reading your post.

I have no problem with the concept that, on a given night, a lesser player...or even an entire lesser team, might outplay the more talented player or team...That's a big part of the excitement of sports...and it's why they play the games...otherwise, we might as well just let a computer simulate the outcomes.

I thought your assessment showed a little of your bias (which is, afterall, only natural) in looking for some areas to claim an edge for PSU...or at least a "push"...I may have come across a biut of the same in my direction...but, to be completely honest, I really do think that a rational evaluation would give UCLA a fairly reasonable edge at each of the five positions as well as in the "bench" and in "coaching".

True, I don't know a whole lot about your team. I don't really follow them closely. But I do check out all of MY team's opponents...and I have followed recruitng, especially West Coast recruiting very closely over the years...So, I know a lot of the players, who recruited them out of high school, where the consensus was regarding their talent...and try to follow them at times thereafter to see how they measured up...

As an example, when we played Azusa Pacific--a team some of you may think was a total pushover, I recognized, not only were they the NAIA Championship Finalist, but that several of their players were actually big name recruits who were pursued by high majors--most notably David Burgess, theiir 6'10" center (brother of Chris Burgess, who went to Duke then transferred to BYU)...The younger Burgess actiually signed out of High School with BYU, then transferred to Gonzga before somehow ending up at Azusa Pacific...The kid is actually a formidable player who had more in the way of personal issues than any question of his playing ability...

In any event, I knew of Huff because he played JC ball down here in my neck of the woods...but, I don't think he was ever considered a "high D1 recruit"...

My concept of comparing match-ups is to look at the player's rankings out of high school (assuming they've lived up to those expectations) and their reputation among NBA scouts and GMs and their abilities, as assessed by knowledgeable scouts...

My assessment of the individual matchups is based largely on the various rankings of each of the Bruin players out of high school, their attainment of Mc Donalds and Parade Magazine high school teams, all-conference, all-conference freshman team and all-American teams, individual accolades and awards and NBA draft predictions and assessments...and the relative obscurity of the Viking players.

Yes, in a way it is not fair...But, clearly, there is a group of NCAA Universities that recruits t an entirelty different level than everyone else. Thanks to the AAU tournaments, the shoe camps and other similar events, nowadays everyone knows who the top prospects are, year in and year out...And 90% of those most elite players go to the same few schools...An outsider school may, from time to time, pull off a coup with maybe one recruit...And, of course, at times, a great player may develop late or somehow fall through the cracks...

But, for the most part, when you get a match-up like this one, it's one of the top programs in the nation hosting one of the "mid-majors" and it's sort of a mis-match...
Yes, someone might step up and have a big game for you guys...somebody's got to score the points...but there really isn't a position where PSU has even close to competitive situation, at least on paper...and, obviously, that does not mean some Viking at some position won't outscore his opposite player...but, even that won't mean they've really outplayed them...

I really am just trying to be realistic here...I think if you were equally as realistic, you'd admit that edge and just hope that your guys play their hearts out and outperform their relative abilities...
 
I wasn't offended, I just didn't like the wording of the first sentence. I came to my evaluations based on how the Viks played against PAC 10 opponents last year.

L 116-68 against Oregon -Porter's best game of the year 40+ pts, foul trouble for every player on the Vikings
W 71-67 against Arizona State
L 105-73 against Washington -This game was close most of the way

They also kept it close against a very talented Gonzaga with Josh Heytvelt. They are a much deeper team than last year, (10-11 man rotation vs. 7-8 last year) and appear to be much more talented.

Without bias, I think I agree that the Bruins should be much more balanced than last year, especially with two inside scoring possibilities. However, I think that they may struggle to replace Afflalo's scoring. Though it hasn't appeared that way in the scores of their two exhibitions, it may change against better competition. Was Westbrook the backup PG last year? If Roll had been the starter, do you really think he is better than Lucas?

Since you follow West Coast recruiting closely, can you tell us anything we don't know about Jason Conrad?

Please invite more Bruin fans to come if they want to talk about the game.
 
I don't really think Roll would be the starter...he's basically a very solid player off the bench...an excellent passer and a pretty good shooter, but not the stud athlete Westbrook is...Soi, it' really sort of a moot point...it's hard to compare Roll to an opponet because what Roll brings to the game sort ofgets hidden in the larger team concept...Even still, Roll was considered a Top 300 player in high school and has excellent size for a 2-guard...

As to replacing Afflalo's scoring, I really don't think that's going to be any kind of problem...It's basically a whole new offensive game...

Last couple of years, the team relied on "half-court" game...they wereone of the lowest scoring teams in the NCAA Touranment...The team was really sort of one dimensional on offense--usually worked the ball around the perimeter, ran down the shot clock , then took the best outside shot--which was usually Afflalo...

Part of the problem was that the post players--Mata and Aboya--are not the most deft offensive players nor are either great passing big men...They do have their strengths--tough defense, rebounding, pushing people around...but you simply can't run an "inside/outside offensive game plan with those guys...

The addition of Love and the much -improved shooting of Mbah a Moute plus the increased use of Dragovic gives the Bruins a substantially better inside scoring punch...and Love is the best passing big man since Bill Walton...

The other factor is that a backcourt of Collison and Westbrook (yes, Westbrook was the back-up at the point last year...and will be again this year--both guys woin't be out of the game at the same time often) is much quicker and much better ball-handling than last year's squad...

So, with two ball handling and speedy guards and a big man who can catch the ball on the run and who passes well, this team simply will run MUCH better than the last couple of years ...they'll make up for Afflalo's scoring with EVERYBODY's scoring...

You know far more about Conrad than I would...All I know is tht he's tall, but very thin...He really didn't make a blip on any major school's radar...

He plays at Gilroy...which isn't exactly big-time basketball or against major competition...Gilroy is a small, out-of the way farming town in Central California, miles away from anywhere "serious" basketball is played...There's only one other 6'11" kid in the entire league...and he's on Conrad's team...no one else in the league last year was over 6'7" and only a couple of players were over 6'4"...Conrad was only the fourth best scorer on his own team last season at 8.5 ppg (no, I didn't know that...I had to look it up)...

The bottom line though, is that he's played against an extremely low level of competition...and is likely a "project"...Doesn't mean he can't develop into a good player...but, this sort of underscores what I was saying about the difference in the level of recruits PSU can get and the ones UCLA signs...

The Bruins four commits for next year are all ranked in the Top 30 nationally...They're kids who play on nationally ranked high school teams and have played in the highest level basketball camps.

The three Pac-10 teams you are using as your measuring stick, BTW, were a combined 21-33 in conference...The one team you beat was the conference doormat at 2-16...The only one of those teams with a winning record in the Pac-10 beat you by 48 points...and the Bruins are a better team than that...
 
We know Kevin Love, he's from a suburb of Portland.

I'm not trying to debate the talent levels of the respective recruits. At a Big Sky school, we're happy to see anybody from a Pac-10 school transfer our way. PSU doesn't even put a strong effort into recruiting the top local players. Obviously, Portland and the surrounding area cranks out high major recruits as well as any state outside the big basketball states.

I'm also aware of Conrad's lack of an offensive game. However, I think he'll fit into the system here in a couple of years.

The key factor in my analysis is depth. PSU had no big men last year outside of Morrison. Their next two biggest players were both rail-thin SFs. Therefore, there was no way they could match up with any opponents' big men. I think UO was vastly superior, but also way too quick. The Vikings are also a much quicker team this year, and Dominguez would probably match up much better against Tajuan Porter. Given this year's rosters, I think the Viks could keep it really close, especially since Aaron Brooks is gone.

You noted that this year's UCLA squad would run a lot more, but I think the half court style would put the Vikings in more trouble. Sure, fast breaks beat a slow squad like last year's Vikings into submission, but it doesn't allow the vastly superior non-athletic tools the Bruins have to take effect. I don't see them having any problems going back to that style, I was just pointing out that is another reason why the match ups aren't as bad as they could be.
 
I like WiViking's comments but I agree with Bruin Steve. The Bruins will be wicked good this year and are a final four team again. I don't think PSU has any real match-up advantages at any position and we'll get torched at the guard positions and inside. I hope a couple of our players step up and have one of their better nights so we can show some of our athleticism.

Still, it is a big thrill to get to play UCLA.
 
I went to the Tournament last year and saw UCLA first hand when they worked Weber, This team is good! There players are unbelivable at the things they do with the ball. Portland will not get much closer then about 15 the entire night.
 
FatWildCat said:
I went to the Tournament last year and saw UCLA first hand when they worked Weber, This team is good! There players are unbelivable at the things they do with the ball. Portland will not get much closer then about 15 the entire night.
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I predict PSU will be within 15 at tip-off!
 
Hope the Viks can be competitive tonight. I would feel a little more confident if Tiefenthaler and Hammond were playing. I'll be listening intently tonight on the radio and hope for a huge upset.
 
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