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The Bengal Women are in if...

S

Skippy

Active member
...They win one of two on the road this weekend against EWU and Idaho, or....

Southern Utah and Weber State lose one of two. If both Weber and SUU lose a game this weekend, they can finish no better than 7-11.

If Idaho State tied for eighth with Southern Utah at 8-10, the T-birds get in over us by virtue of having swept the season series. If we tie for eighth with Weber State at 8-10, that would mean the Wildcats beat Eastern this weekend while we lost to them, so Weber would get the tiebreaker by virtue of having a better head-to-head record against the Eagles.

I can't figure out any way Idaho beats us in an 8th place tiebreaker (thanks to our win over Northern Colorado and the Vandals' loss to the Bears).


If we get into a three-way tie for 8th with Idaho and Montana State at 8-10, we win by virtue of having a 3-1 record against those three teams (they would each be 1-2). If we get into a three-way tie with Southern Utah and Weber State at 8-10, Southern Utah and Weber State would be 2-2 and ISU would be 1-3, so we'd lose out.

If we get into a three-way tie at 8-10 with Southern Utah and Montana State, Southern Utah would win the tiebreaker by virtue of going 3-0 against ISU and MSU.

If we get into a three-way tie with for seventh with NAU and SUU at 8-10, SUU would win the tiebreak by virtue of its 3-1 record among those teams, NAU would get the 8th seed by having gone 2-2, and ISU would lose out because it went 1-3 among the three teams.

Best scenario for ISU, of course, is to just get a win this weekend and we'll be in thanks to the tiebreaker we hold over Montana State.
 
Regarding Brad's post... Thursday night Weber is at Idaho, So. Utah is at Sac. St. and NAU is at Port. St.

On paper, Idaho, Sac. St. and NAU should all win which if Brad's computations are correct would put ISU in regardless of what they do. But that's on paper of course...I mean So. Utah should have been eliminated with a loss Saturday...so they promptly beat up North Dakota! Trying to predict the way this year has gone is a fool's game.

PBP
 
Thanks Skippy:

Most likely scenario:
Montana State is 8-9 and they have one game left with Montana. If Montana wins that game, MSU finishes 8-10. If ISU loses both games, they finish 8-10 but have the tie breaker over MSU.

I am counting on Southern Utah to lose to Sac State (this eliminates them). Eastern Washington should beat Weber State, that eliminates them. I think NAU will win one.

Thus, I predict that Montana, Sac State, NC, EWU, ND, NAU, Idaho, ISU all make the tourney.

I think ISU has a 50/50 chance of beating Idaho on Saturday and that would pretty much clinch a spot.

Current Standings
Montana 14-3
Sacramento St 11-5
Northern Colorado 11-6
Eastern Washington 10-6
North Dakota 9-8
Idaho State 8-8
Northern Arizona 8-8
Montana St 8-9
Southern Utah 6-10
Idaho 6-10
Weber State 6-10
Portland State 1-15
 
The question is, will Montana who gains nothing either way Saturday... play hard, play to win against Montana State? Or will Robin take things easy to give his team some rest before the tournament?

For ISU a lot can hinge on how UM approaches that game.

The other key game will be So. Utah at Sac. State. Will the Hornets take things seriously? If So. Utah somehow wins Thursday night, they'll hammer Portland State Saturday which would give them eight wins on the year. That could be a problem for ISU given that the T-Birds hold the tiebreaker.

PBP
 
PBP said:
The question is, will Montana who gains nothing either way Saturday... play hard, play to win against Montana State? Or will Robin take things easy to give his team some rest before the tournament?

For ISU a lot can hinge on how UM approaches that game.

The other key game will be So. Utah at Sac. State. Will the Hornets take things seriously? If So. Utah somehow wins Thursday night, they'll hammer Portland State Saturday which would give them eight wins on the year. That could be a problem for ISU given that the T-Birds hold the tiebreaker.

PBP
Click to expand...
I don't think there is any question Montana plays to win against their instate rival MSU. But the Bobcats are not really the big concern since ISU has the tiebreaker over them. I think SUU is our biggest concern since they hold all tiebreakers over ISU. But ISU controls its own destiny -- one win and they are in.
 
spudbowl said:
Thus, I predict that Montana, Sac State, NC, EWU, ND, NAU, Idaho, ISU all make the tourney.
Click to expand...

I don't think that's possible. Since MSU swept Idaho, I don't believe there's any way Idaho can get in without MSU being ahead of them.

I think NAU will finish 9-9 while ISU, MSU, and Idaho will tie for 7th. at 8-10; that leaves Idaho as the odd team out.
 
You don't have to worry about Sac playing to win......they only have one speed FAST FAST FAST....they will not take it easy on anyone at home...trust me
 
sacstateman said:
You don't have to worry about Sac playing to win......they only have one speed FAST FAST FAST....they will not take it easy on anyone at home...trust me
Click to expand...

Not to mention taking second gives them a WNIT auto-bid if Montana wins the tourney.
 
Yeah, you are correct. Maybe Idaho won't have that much to play for then.

mvem said:
spudbowl said:
Thus, I predict that Montana, Sac State, NC, EWU, ND, NAU, Idaho, ISU all make the tourney.
Click to expand...

I don't think that's possible. Since MSU swept Idaho, I don't believe there's any way Idaho can get in without MSU being ahead of them.

I think NAU will finish 9-9 while ISU, MSU, and Idaho will tie for 7th. at 8-10; that leaves Idaho as the odd team out.
Click to expand...
 
Skippy said:
I can't figure out any way Idaho beats us in an 8th place tiebreaker (thanks to our win over Northern Colorado and the Vandals' loss to the Bears).

If we get into a three-way tie for 8th with Idaho and Montana State at 8-10, we win by virtue of having a 3-1 record against those three teams (they would each be 1-2). If we get into a three-way tie with Southern Utah and Weber State at 8-10, Southern Utah and Weber State would be 2-2 and ISU would be 1-3, so we'd lose out.
Click to expand...

http://www.govandals.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=17100&ATCLID=209925123" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Idaho says they're in if we lose to EWU and they win both games. It's not that simple, is it? Because like you said, ISU, Idaho, and MSU could all be tied at 8-10. ISU is 3-1, MSU is 2-2, and UI would be 1-3.
 
This is one of those times I miss Frank. He'd know every possible scenario for ISU.

I think one way that Idaho could beat out ISU in a tie-breaker is if the two teams are tied alone in 8th place and EWU finishes above Northern Colorado. It's possible, because EWU hosts ISU and Weber, while Northern Colorado plays its final game at North Dakota, a team it lost to already. ISU would have lost twice to EWU, and Idaho split with them.

Oh Frank, where art thou?
 
Sin City Spudhead said:
Skippy said:
I can't figure out any way Idaho beats us in an 8th place tiebreaker (thanks to our win over Northern Colorado and the Vandals' loss to the Bears).

If we get into a three-way tie for 8th with Idaho and Montana State at 8-10, we win by virtue of having a 3-1 record against those three teams (they would each be 1-2). If we get into a three-way tie with Southern Utah and Weber State at 8-10, Southern Utah and Weber State would be 2-2 and ISU would be 1-3, so we'd lose out.
Click to expand...

http://www.govandals.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=17100&ATCLID=209925123" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Idaho says they're in if we lose to EWU and they win both games. It's not that simple, is it? Because like you said, ISU, Idaho, and MSU could all be tied at 8-10. ISU is 3-1, MSU is 2-2, and UI would be 1-3.
Click to expand...
If both ISU and Idaho tied at 8-10, the first tiebreak is head to head, and that's a wash. Then you go down how you did against the top team in the league and keep going down until you break the tie. This is the way I see it:

Vs. Montana: Both lost twice.
vs. Sac State: Idaho lost both, ISU only played them once and lost. (Does that mean we win the tiebreaker here?) If not,
vs. Northern Colorado: Idaho lost its only game with Northern Colorado, ISU won. So ISU wins the tiebreaker here.
If Eastern Washington wins both games this week (vs. ISU and Weber) and ties Northern Colorado for third at 12-6, Northern Colorado is still the third seed because they beat Eastern in their only head-to-head.
If Eastern wins both games this week and UNC loses its only game at North Dakota, then EWU will move ahead of UNC for third place. In that case, Idaho would win the tiebreaker because they split with Eastern and ISU would have lost both times.

So, to summarize, the only way Idaho wins a tiebreaker with ISU is Northern Colorado loses at North Dakota. Update: Big Sky site says head to head is based on winning percentage, so it would not matter if a team was 0-1 vs an opponent or 0-2. So ISU would not win a tiebreaker with Idaho based on the teams' records against Sac.
 
I don't claim to understand how but according to the Big Sky web site tonight, both Northern Arizona and Montana State clinched berths in the post season tournament.

How MSU could do that after being swept by ISU is a mystery to me.

So one spot remains and it is between ISU and Idaho. Idaho says if they win Saturday they are in but I've asked for confirmation of that claim from the conference office and if there is any way ISU still gets in via tiebreaker if they lose Saturday.

When I get a response I'll pass it along.

Team showed a lot of heart and guts tonight. Started the game 1-10 from the field yet fought back to take a 49-48 lead with about four minutes to go before losing 62-58. Eastern made the plays with their experienced players when they had to. Difference may have been the fact that Eastern got to the line 20 times compared to ISU's 11.

Takes nothing away from ISU's effort tonight though.

PBP
 
OK...just got a late night call from Matt Gittens from Sports Information. He burned the midnight oil and has shown that Idaho's claims of "win and in" are wrong.

More importantly he contacted the Big Sky office and they confirmed this as well. So here you go.

ISU makes the post season tournament if ANY of these four scenarios take place:

1. ISU beats Idaho on Saturday.
2. If ISU loses they still get in if Montana beats Montana State.
3. If ISU loses they still get in if Northern Colorado beats North Dakota.
4. If ISU loses they still get in if Weber State beats Eastern Washington.

Thanks again to Matt for his work on clearing this up.

PBP
 
PBP said:
OK...just got a late night call from Matt Gittens from Sports Information. He burned the midnight oil and has shown that Idaho's claims of "win and in" are wrong.

More importantly he contacted the Big Sky office and they confirmed this as well. So here you go.

ISU makes the post season tournament if ANY of these four scenarios take place:

1. ISU beats Idaho on Saturday.
2. If ISU loses they still get in if Montana beats Montana State.
3. If ISU loses they still get in if Northern Colorado beats North Dakota.
4. If ISU loses they still get in if Weber State beats Eastern Washington.

Thanks again to Matt for his work on clearing this up.

PBP
Click to expand...

Yes, that's right. Idaho can only get in if they beat ISU, MSU wins (UI is left out in the 3-way tie), and EWU finishes ahead of NoCo outright (it wouldn't matter if they tied with Sac).

Could happen, but unlikely.

I don't claim to understand how but according to the Big Sky web site tonight, both Northern Arizona and Montana State clinched berths in the post season tournament.

How MSU could do that after being swept by ISU is a mystery to me.
Click to expand...

MSU clinched because SUU lost. The Bobcats swept both Idaho & Weber, so being swept by ISU wouldn't have been enough to leave them out in any possible tie scenario.
 
http://www.govandals.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=17100&ATCLID=209928995" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thursday’s win combined with Idaho State’s loss at Eastern Washington keeps the Vandals’ Big Sky Tournament hopes alive, setting up an important win-and-in game against Idaho State on Saturday.
Click to expand...

Does anybody in Vandal Land maintain contact with the Big Sky office? :dunce:

The best scenario is to win, obviously, OR hope MSU loses. Then we wouldn't have to play Montana in the first game, right?
 
Sin:

I believe you are correct although drawing Sacramento State isn't going to be easy either...not with their unique style of play.

PBP
 
Yes. If Montana beats Montana State tomorrow, those two will play each other again in the quarters.
 
According to Mark Liptak, we are in because Northern Colorado beat North Dakota. Unfortunately, Idaho is blowing us out in Moscow.
 
The only thing that matters is they got in. Regardless of what happens this upcoming week the experience of going through this will prove very useful next season.

Keep in mind folks, the media in the preseason said the team wouldn't get in, not with 12 underclassmen...yet they did. The same group by the way picked Idaho 3rd or 4thin the preseason. UI is home next week.

Not going to be easy to say the least against Montana...not with them getting beat by Montana State today and with their all time record when hosting 36-1...but at least ISU has a shot, that's all you can ask for right now.

Game time by the way is slated for 8PM either Wednesday or Thursday.

Congrats to Seton, his staff and a bunch of kids who played hard and put themselves in this position.

PBP
 
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