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The Future

A

Alan1

Active member
The Vikings, in this decade, have won more conference games in a season than they have lost exactly twice. Two out of ten. Under Barnum they are 14 and 28 in conference games with one winning season.

In Hillsboro our 2019 attendance was again the worst in the Big Sky and it seems to me that each with each passing year Viking football is a little more diminished; a little more off the community's radar.

Canzano predicted we would be 9 and 3 in 2019 and @bigskyconf predicted 7 and 5. Not to be. For the second year in a row we were 3 and 5 in conference. in 2019 we had two non-conference loses to FBS teams and non-conference wins over a NAIA team and a D2 team.

Next season? If our last 10 years is any example, I'd say we have a 1 in 5 chance at a winning conference record in 2020. If we look at just the last 5 years under Barnum, again I'd say we have a 1 in 5 chance.

What about attendance at Hillsboro Stadium? In a recent article David Carter, a USC marketing professor and sports-marketing specialist, commenting on building football attendance, said if he were consulting with a university on how to bring fans to the stadium, he’d tell them a vibrant, energetic game-day experience is essential: from the football team’s on-field performance, to the tailgate, to the in-stadium experience.

Making the resources available to improve the game-day experience in Hillsboro will be difficult if not impossible. In fy 2019 the Athletic Department experienced a cash loss of approximately $4.2 million with the problem expected to continue in fy 2020.

The future? More of the same.
 
Alan said:
The Vikings, in this decade, have won more conference games in a season than they have lost exactly twice. Two out of ten. Under Barnum they are 14 and 28 in conference games with one winning season.

In Hillsboro our 2019 attendance was again the worst in the Big Sky and it seems to me that each with each passing year Viking football is a little more diminished; a little more off the community's radar.

Canzano predicted we would be 9 and 3 in 2019 and @bigskyconf predicted 7 and 5. Not to be. For the second year in a row we were 3 and 5 in conference. in 2019 we had two non-conference loses to FBS teams and non-conference wins over a NAIA team and a D2 team.

Next season? If our last 10 years is any example, I'd say we have a 1 in 5 chance at a winning conference record in 2020. If we look at just the last 5 years under Barnum, again I'd say we have a 1 in 5 chance.

What about attendance at Hillsboro Stadium? In a recent article David Carter, a USC marketing professor and sports-marketing specialist, commenting on building football attendance, said if he were consulting with a university on how to bring fans to the stadium, he’d tell them a vibrant, energetic game-day experience is essential: from the football team’s on-field performance, to the tailgate, to the in-stadium experience.

Making the resources available to improve the game-day experience in Hillsboro will be difficult if not impossible. In fy 2019 the Athletic Department experienced a cash loss of approximately $4.2 million with the problem expected to continue in fy 2020.

The future? More of the same.
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Sometime in the future I predict that Alan will attend a PSU football game, other than when we play against WOU. :D
 
From Oregon Live: https://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/2020/01/opinion-its-time-for-portland-state-to-punt-on-football.html
 
Broaden the perspective for a bit.

https://www.si.com/college/2020/01/10/college-football-attendance-decline-ncaa
 
Ken Goe follows up the Edward Hershey opinion piece with his own few hundred words.

https://trib.al/cboXkGF

While I might be suffering confirmation bias visa vie his mention of No Football, No Big Sky, it is noticed that he pretty much whispered GNAC.
 
Pounder said:
Ken Goe follows up the Edward Hershey opinion piece with his own few hundred words.

https://trib.al/cboXkGF

While I might be suffering confirmation bias visa vie his mention of No Football, No Big Sky, it is noticed that he pretty much whispered GNAC.
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I must have missed something.

"The best solution would be for PSU to stay in the Big Sky, play football games in a venue close to campus and the center of town, field a competitive team and hope that would lead to more fan appeal."

I don't see the GNAC reference. I also don't see Goe advocating for PSU to leave DI or the Big Sky. Four items listed and all four make sense. Being competitive in the Big Sky is a must, and most of the DI football talent in the metro area is at the FCS level. We have four more years of trying to figure out the venue situation. As far as more fan appeal, we saw in 2015 (and Sac State realized this past year) that you win and people will come out and watch you play. Everybody loves a winner, while losing puts a strain on even the most die-hard fan out there.
 
What you missed, part 1:

The best solution would be for PSU to stay in the Big Sky, play football games in a venue close to campus and the center of town, field a competitive team and hope that would lead to more fan appeal. But if you take Providence Park out of the equation, there isn’t such a venue.
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If you understand Merritt Paulson as being a guy who likes money (which is more true than what he thinks of soccer), then I present you with the chicken-and-egg issue. The coach says other coaches are using Hillsboro to recruit against Portland State. Is the program going to get better that way, thus making it more appealing for the bigger stadium to bring back Portland State? Try having any sort of sense of realism about this, please. The program was supposed to be a beneficiary of the 2011 renovation and have nothing to show for it.

Now, part 2 requires a “reading between the lines” understanding.

One reason PSU joined the Big Sky was because scheduling at the Division II level had become difficult and expensive due to the dearth of Division II programs on the West Coast. How happy would the Division II Great Northwest Athletic Conference, which includes Concordia and Western Oregon, be to include PSU and its approximately 21,000 students?
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The inference isn’t that this is where PSU is headed. The inference, as I read it, if you add it to when John Canzano made a big splash about the drop count (actual attendance instead of announced) for a conference football game a handful of years ago, is that what little media exists in town leaves clues to lead people to think that the GNAC may be PSU’s proper operating level.
 
Pounder said:
What you missed, part 1:

The best solution would be for PSU to stay in the Big Sky, play football games in a venue close to campus and the center of town, field a competitive team and hope that would lead to more fan appeal. But if you take Providence Park out of the equation, there isn’t such a venue.
Click to expand...

If you understand Merritt Paulson as being a guy who likes money (which is more true than what he thinks of soccer), then I present you with the chicken-and-egg issue. The coach says other coaches are using Hillsboro to recruit against Portland State. Is the program going to get better that way, thus making it more appealing for the bigger stadium to bring back Portland State? Try having any sort of sense of realism about this, please. The program was supposed to be a beneficiary of the 2011 renovation and have nothing to show for it.

Now, part 2 requires a “reading between the lines” understanding.

One reason PSU joined the Big Sky was because scheduling at the Division II level had become difficult and expensive due to the dearth of Division II programs on the West Coast. How happy would the Division II Great Northwest Athletic Conference, which includes Concordia and Western Oregon, be to include PSU and its approximately 21,000 students?
Click to expand...

The inference isn’t that this is where PSU is headed. The inference, as I read it, if you add it to when John Canzano made a big splash about the drop count (actual attendance instead of announced) for a conference football game a handful of years ago, is that what little media exists in town leaves clues to lead people to think that the GNAC may be PSU’s proper operating level.
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I was being realistic. I did not include the statement about Providence Park because I felt that was understood. But let me spell it out. Unless something unforeseen happens within the next four years, Providence Park is not an option for American football.

Also, a given that the GNAC would be "happy" if PSU dropped (excuse the pun) in their lap. It is a sure bet that the GNAC would be "happy" with any increase in membership. But the scheduling problem still exists out here in DII. How many times did WOU have to go to Texas this year? Also, WOU had a great season this year, but did they get any reward with a playoff berth? And while it is true that PSU went to Arkansas, it is my understanding that we got paid handsomely for it. Would that happen to PSU making these trips to Texas and such?

Ultimately, the best option would be creating our own DII conference with WOU, CWU, Simon Fraser, and bring along SOU and EOU from the Frontier, possibly adding College of Idaho and Azusa, but I don't see that happening.

We've got four years to figure out what direction we are heading. Until then. I'm going to sit back and enjoy PSU football. In Hillsboro.
 
After sifting through all the options, I'll say this: the only thing that ends in four years is the lease in Hillsboro. That's the one thing that's easy to renew.

I can't see PSU committing to anything else.
 
Pounder said:
After sifting through all the options, I'll say this: the only thing that ends in four years is the lease in Hillsboro. That's the one thing that's easy to renew.

I can't see PSU committing to anything else.
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It is easy to renew, but is playing the games in Hillsboro truly the best option? These next four years are probably the most important time in PSU football history as we will all have a better understanding of where the program is heading after that, good or bad.
 
A letter to the editor: https://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/2020/01/readers-respond-psu-doesnt-need-football.html
 
Anyone know who the head of Duke University's well-known medical center is? Hello? Hello? Anyone?

Now, does anyone know the head of Duke's much renown basketball team? Anyone?

Sports can put your school in front of others who would not otherwise know who you are.

Maybe I'll write a letter to the editor. Makes sense now that OLive removed the comments section.
 
I know the writer of that letter. He probably wants another fountain where he can skinny dip with some chick.
 
bigskyconf said:
Anyone know who the head of Duke University's well-known medical center is? Hello? Hello? Anyone?

Now, does anyone know the head of Duke's much renown basketball team? Anyone?

Sports can put your school in front of others who would not otherwise know who you are.

Maybe I'll write a letter to the editor. Makes sense now that OLive removed the comments section.
Click to expand...

And, do you know the head of Georgetown University's football team? How about the University of Chicago's? Have you heard the news? Seattle University, the University of Portland, Gonzaga, San Francisco State, UC Santa Barbara, Long Beach State, and many other schools nation-wide are closing their doors for the lack of a football team!

Do write that letter to the editor.
 
Another letter to the Oregonian: https://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/2020/01/readers-respond-dont-like-football-dont-go.html
 
This item may be scarier than any "state of Viking football" screed.

https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/sports/bobcats/montana-state-in-works-to-potentially-offer-cost-of-attendance/article_baa98c14-dbeb-582a-a8b5-77c782c9d20b.html

Not that there's unanimity among Cat fans as to whether such a promise could actually be fulfilled. You figure that if Montana State is considering this, then Montana might be further along.
 
Interesting news of sorts from around the conference. Here is a story from KREM-2 in Spokane as well as NBC Sports about a report being sent to EWU's board of trustees about eliminating their whole athletic department (hmm, sounds familiar)

https://www.krem.com/article/sports/ewu-faculty-senate-group-suggests-heavy-athletic-cuts-including-football/293-894d8000-e611-4b61-a29b-f4f12c2bd37b

https://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/02/14/fcs-football-could-be-on-the-chopping-block-at-eastern-washington/

Now before you decide that the Big Sky is becoming a conference of haves (Montana, Montana State) and the have-nots (the rest of the conference), may I present to you an article from the Missoulian from last October about Montana's severe decline in enrollment for this school year.

https://missoulian.com/news/local/university-of-montana-enrollment-decline-severe-but-montanans-see-signs/article_64a9aa85-e85a-571b-80a8-d7c34d051921.html

The reason why I am presenting this is not because I think there is a dumpster fire brewing in the conference, but just to point out that the problems in our little fishbowl that people seem to want to make such a big deal about are not unique to just us, but are problems that every school at every level deals with. To even infer that the only solution to these problems is to eliminate athletic programs (or all athletics) is preposterous.
 
On one hand, I believe the San Jose State faculty made a similar recommendation while I lived down there... 27 years ago. I also recall, at some point after (with thanks to those silly early interwebs) that San Diego State faculty were at least giving strong consideration to same. At least in San Jose's case, we're all still waiting for a mercy killing, while San Diego State seems to be going full steam ahead on plans to raze the old Chargers stadium and build something with 35,000 seats.. I'm not expecting EWU to do much... though their budget and available donor cash is historically left wanting. Point is... faculty recommendations don't usually drive policy on these matters.

Montana has the most aged population in the West, so the enrollment numbers are not surprising. Thing is, Montana is the flagship, Montana State is the Land Grant, and depending on what you think of Carroll College, there's not many other discretionary sports dollar distractions. Those two schools are that state's little babies and, unless they're really dim about the situation (a possibility I won't discount), some money spent to improve that situation probably could be had. Maybe.

Perhaps that's why you DO apply cost of attendance as long as the donor base and the money are there at Montana. Evidence shows this area doesn't have that kind of commitment unless you're in Phil Knight's good graces.

Meanwhile, here's an interesting article today in the wake of the Concordia closing...

https://www.oregonlive.com/education/2020/02/as-colleges-struggle-to-survive-linfield-says-it-has-recovered-and-will-expand.html

So Linfield has had four years of decline and say they've recovered this year after a series of enhancements. The article mentions significant decline at Southern Oregon. Guess which two schools in the state have had the best small college football programs in that time. However, more important from the article...

Nationally, college enrollment dropped to 17.2 million as of last spring, the 8th straight year of decline.
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Jane Oates, former executive director of the New Jersey Commission on Higher Education, said other states are hurting worse than Oregon. Wisconsin intends to consolidate several campuses, she said, while Pennsylvania seems headed in the same direction.

“The numbers just aren’t’ working,” Oates said. “The number of 18- to 22-year-olds keeps going down for the next 15 years.”
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That's just demographics. Portland State is still dealing with flat overall ticket sales. Are we sure the students who will come through here expect to see a football program?
 
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