UM vs. PSU Game Analysis

[CrunchGriz]

My game analysis:

Lines: Both teams have very good lines, both offense and defense. Montana's offensive line was a question mark at the beginning of the season, but they are gelling. PSU's lines, defensive in particular, are very good. Hard to call this one. Call it a draw.

Montana's pass offense vs. PSU's pass defense: PSU is athletic but small at the corners; UM is athletic and tall at WR. Swogger has a very live arm. Advantage UM, if the OL can keep Swogger vertical. I'll call this a small advantage to the Griz; large advantage if Swogger isn't consistently pressured.

Montana's run offense vs. PSU's run defense: Montana runs fairly well, and the OL is improving its run blocking. UM is without its best RB and player (Lex Hilliard), though, so UM is not as capable here as they were last year. PSU has been good against the run this season, so we'll give PSU a small advantage here.

PSU's pass offense vs. Montana's pass defense: UM has been good against the pass this year, but PSU has a couple of dynamic pass catchers, probably better than any I-AA team the Griz have faced this year. If Smith is playing, this might be a slight advantage to PSU. With Freeman, who didn't exactly light it up against WSU (and I think Montana's pass defense is better than WSU's), advantage to UM.

PSU's run offense vs. Montana's run defense: PSU seems to have a stable of good runners, but Ali would provide a type of runner they don't otherwise have. Montana has been good against the run, even against Iowa. If PSU has a healthy Ali, we'll call it a draw to a small advantage for PSU. Otherwise, small advantage to Montana.

Special teams: Montana is very good in all phases of special teams--blocking punts, setting up kickoff and punt returns, pulling off fake punts/field goals, and punting/kicking. The last time UM played in Portland, they virtually handed the game to the Viks with poor punting (two shanked punts under 5 yards). I wouldn't count on that happening again. Advantage Montana.

Coaching: Coach Walsh always seems to come up with a good plan for the Griz in the Portland games, and I think he's pulling a Hauck by keeping either Smith's or Ali's return a closely-held secret. Coach Hauck always pulls a Hauck, so expect the unexpected. Montana fans, while nearly giddy after the Sac State shellacking, are still waiting for proof of OC Rob Phenicie's talents against the better teams. PSU would definitely be one of them. Advantage: Even.

Home field advantage: To PSU for the inferior carpet that they know so well; arguably to Montana because their crowd will rival PSU's in PSU's own stadium. Advantage: Slight to PSU.

Here's to a good game, with no major injuries!

I'll be there, with about 15 other Griz fans in tow.

 

[martymoose]

Good analysis...

That UM special teams is pretty darned good on the stats sheet.

The Ali situation is an odd one. We know he's good, you know he's good, but he's had zero snaps in a PSU game thus far. All I know is what I saw in the spring game and the beginning of practice, but there is a big difference between a game situation and practice.

I really wish it was Friday today, I can't wait for this game...

 

[Kodiak]

I really don't think the Griz will be able to run on PSU. They will have to pass the ball effectively to win the game, which they will do although not as easily as against Sac. Griz will also have an advantage with depth. That depth should prove itself in the second half. If PSU is able to control the line of scrimmage though and run at will like in 04 then it could be a long day for UM.

 

[martymoose]

I really don't think the Griz will be able to run on PSU. They will have to pass the ball effectively to win the game, which they will do although not as easily as against Sac. Griz will also have an advantage with depth. That depth should prove itself in the second half. If PSU is able to control the line of scrimmage though and run at will like in 04 then it could be a long day for UM.

Depth on what? The D line? We're eight deep.

 

[Proud Griz Man1]

My game analysis:


Montana's run offense vs. PSU's run defense: Montana runs fairly well, and the OL is improving its run blocking. UM is without its best RB and player (Lex Hilliard), though, so UM is not as capable here as they were last year. PSU has been good against the run this season, so we'll give PSU a small advantage here.

That could be the biggest key to this game. Good analysis Cruncher.

 

[grizbeer]

good Analysis Crunch. I don't think the Griz can run straight into the PSU D-Line. I think the Griz will counter this, and the very good PSU D-backs, with a bunch of quick slant passes to Ferriter and Schulte (while the D-backs are locked tight on A-B-C. after ripping off a number of 7 - 10 yard gains the d-backs will start laying off A-B-C, and Swogger will be able to hit the deep pass, or the Linebackers will drop back to stop the slant, opening up the running game for Bradshaw.

Ultimately I believe the game will come down to who has a short field most often (special teams) and turnovers.

 

[GreenDay17]

Ultimately I believe the game will come down to who has a short field most often (special teams) and turnovers.

Very true. Turnovers that result in short fields for the other offense will be a huge factor.

If UM has an average beginning field position like they enjoyed last week against SAC (+44 yard line) then it will be a long night for the Vikings. The Grizzly offense is definitely better than Weber's and PSU cannot survive a quarter against UM like their 3rd quarter against Weber.

 

[Turner Brown]

the Griz O line is far superior to the Weber O line this year. I know our QB, WR, and RB's even without Lex Hilliard is out of the universe better than Weber Griz will ROLL!

 

[Turner Brown]

And our D as a whole is light years better than Weber's D. We are Bigger, Stronger and way mor athletic than the Weber D.