Week 12 - Sac State at Cal Poly
The Hornets (3-7, 1-5 BSC) finish the regular season road slate at the Cal Poly Mustangs (2-7, 1-5 BSC) in a battle for who can avoid the BSC basement. The Mustangs have continued to struggle under 2nd year Head Coach Paul Wulff but have some promising talent on their roster.
Cal Poly has not won a game since week 5 at Northern Colorado, 28-7, for their lone D1 win. The Mustangs put up a valiant effort in a 29-34 week 8 loss at Idaho. Much like the Hornets, the Mustangs come into this game being on the wrong side of some lopsided losses.
The Mustang offense operates out of the shotgun in 11 personnel and mixes in some read option looks. CP is pretty balanced and slightly favors the pass 52%-48%. The Mustangs have played a handful of quarterbacks this season with Bo Kelly (110/169, 1162 yds, 6 TD, 6 INT) seeing the most time as starter. Richie Watts (15/23, 195 yds, 3 TD, 45 car, 176 yds, 4 TD) see a lot of use in running situations. Giancarlo Woods (43 rec, 593 yds, 4 TD) and Michael Briscoe (22 rec, 414 yds, 3 TD) are the leading receivers with Logan Booher (27 rec, 273 yds) getting key targets as well. The Mustang running game has struggled to have an impact this season with running back Aiden Ramos (95 car, 304 yds, 1 TD, 14 rec, 86 yds) being the main ball carrier. Up front the CP offensive line does a good job of giving Kelly time to throw the ball.
Offensive Team Stats
Defensive Team Stats
Hornet Team Stats
Offensively, the Hornets will need to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers. Cal Poly does a decent job getting to the quarterback, and the Hornet offensive line didn’t have a particularly strong game a week ago. ETT should get the ball early and often and his ability to carry this offense will likely be the difference in SLO. If Conklin continues to make good decisions with the ball, the Hornet odds of a road win are strong.
Defensively, the question will be if the Hornets even bother to make the trip to the central coast. The Hornet defense has been MIA the last few weeks, but even if they do show up will still likely get diced up by CP’s passing attack. The Hornet front should have a good showing against the run given that is not CP’s strength.
Hornets desperately need a win to shake itself out of the funk it is in. If the Hornets play to their strengths, there is a good chance the Hornets get a win. The question is can the Hornets get in the right headspace and take care of business on the road? I think the Hornets will.
Stingers Up!
Montana at Cal Poly Highlights:
Cal Poly at Idaho Highlights:
The Hornets (3-7, 1-5 BSC) finish the regular season road slate at the Cal Poly Mustangs (2-7, 1-5 BSC) in a battle for who can avoid the BSC basement. The Mustangs have continued to struggle under 2nd year Head Coach Paul Wulff but have some promising talent on their roster.
Cal Poly has not won a game since week 5 at Northern Colorado, 28-7, for their lone D1 win. The Mustangs put up a valiant effort in a 29-34 week 8 loss at Idaho. Much like the Hornets, the Mustangs come into this game being on the wrong side of some lopsided losses.
The Mustang offense operates out of the shotgun in 11 personnel and mixes in some read option looks. CP is pretty balanced and slightly favors the pass 52%-48%. The Mustangs have played a handful of quarterbacks this season with Bo Kelly (110/169, 1162 yds, 6 TD, 6 INT) seeing the most time as starter. Richie Watts (15/23, 195 yds, 3 TD, 45 car, 176 yds, 4 TD) see a lot of use in running situations. Giancarlo Woods (43 rec, 593 yds, 4 TD) and Michael Briscoe (22 rec, 414 yds, 3 TD) are the leading receivers with Logan Booher (27 rec, 273 yds) getting key targets as well. The Mustang running game has struggled to have an impact this season with running back Aiden Ramos (95 car, 304 yds, 1 TD, 14 rec, 86 yds) being the main ball carrier. Up front the CP offensive line does a good job of giving Kelly time to throw the ball.
Offensive Team Stats
- Points scored per game: 20.6 (11th BSC / 95th FCS)
- Total Offense: 346.3 ypg (108.9 rushing ypg / 237.4 passing ypg) - 11th (12th / 4th) BSC
- Sacks Allowed: 11 (T-5th BSC)
- Turnovers: 12/3 (INT/Fum)
- Red Zone: 17/21 - 15/2 (TD/FG) - 8th BSC
Defensive Team Stats
- Points allowed per game: 32.6 (7th BSC / 101st FCS)
- Total Defense: 427.9 ypg (143.6 rushing ypg / 284.3 passing ypg) - 8th (6th / 11th) BSC
- Sacks : 17 (T-6th BSC)
- Turnovers Forced: 5/6 (INT/Fum)
- Red Zone: 30/35 - 23/7 (TD/FG) - 7th BSC
Hornet Team Stats
- Points scored per game: 28.9 (7th BSC / 35th FCS)
- Points allowed per game: 34.9 (9th BSC / 105th FCS)
- Total Offense: 406.4 ypg (160.4 rushing ypg / 246.0 passing ypg) - 7th (8th / 3rd) BSC
- Total Defense: 417.5 ypg (188.3 rushing ypg / 229.2 passing ypg) - 7th (8th / 7th) BSC
- Sacks Allowed: 11 (T-5th BSC)
- Sacks: 23 (2nd BSC)
- Turnovers: 12/9 (INT/Fum)
- Turnovers Forced: 9/9 (INT/Fum)
- Red Zone Offense: 34/42 - 25/9 (TD/FG) - 7th BSC
- Red Zone Defense: 32/41 - 26/6 (TD/FG) - 2nd BSC
- Quarterback: Hornets. Carson Conklin is a better passer and decision maker than Bo Kelly.
- Running Backs: Hornets. Elijah Tau-Tolliver has much greater big play potential and is better all around compared to Aiden Ramos.
- Wide Receivers: Push. The Hornet receivers have more big play making potential but the Cal Poly receivers are better route runners underneath.
- Tight Ends: Push. If Coleman Kuntz doesn’t play, there won’t be a notable tight end on the field.
- Offensive Line: Push. The Hornets are pretty banged up in the trenches and Cal Poly’s offensive line is much improved from a season ago. Hard to lean one way or the other.
- Defensive Line: Mustangs. The Hornet defensive line has been subpar ever since Brandon Knott went down with injury. Elijah Ponder will be the best defensive lineman on the field.
- Linebackers: Hornets. Will Leota and Nakian Jackson (assuming he plays) have more of an impact on defense compared to Judaea Moon and Je’kob Jones.
- Defensive Backs: Mustangs. The Hornet secondary is statistically better but they have been horrendous for most of the season. They are so painful to watch that I am giving the Mustangs the nod here.
- Punters: Push. Cal McGough and Ryan Collins have nearly identical numbers on the year.
- Kickers: Hornets. Zach Schreiner gets the nod over Noah Serna by virtue of volume.
- Kick Returners: Push. Neither returner stands out on either team.
Offensively, the Hornets will need to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers. Cal Poly does a decent job getting to the quarterback, and the Hornet offensive line didn’t have a particularly strong game a week ago. ETT should get the ball early and often and his ability to carry this offense will likely be the difference in SLO. If Conklin continues to make good decisions with the ball, the Hornet odds of a road win are strong.
Defensively, the question will be if the Hornets even bother to make the trip to the central coast. The Hornet defense has been MIA the last few weeks, but even if they do show up will still likely get diced up by CP’s passing attack. The Hornet front should have a good showing against the run given that is not CP’s strength.
Hornets desperately need a win to shake itself out of the funk it is in. If the Hornets play to their strengths, there is a good chance the Hornets get a win. The question is can the Hornets get in the right headspace and take care of business on the road? I think the Hornets will.
Stingers Up!
Montana at Cal Poly Highlights:
Cal Poly at Idaho Highlights:
