Game-by-game predictions (remaining 10 regular-season games)
Sep 13 —
Prediction: Sacramento State
W 45–10 —
Rationale: FCS (Big Sky) vs Division II/Lower-level FCS opponent; Hornets should dominate offensively and rotate younger players.
Confidence: 95%
Sep 20 —
Prediction: Sacramento State
W 28–24 —
Rationale: Central Arkansas is a solid FCS program (physical, good QB play). Home field and Sacramento State talent edge a close game. Expect a late defensive stop or short scoring drive.
Confidence: 65%
Sep 27 —
Prediction: Sacramento State
W 34–17 —
Rationale: Cal Poly typically struggles on the road; Hornets win by establishing run game and limiting turnovers.
Confidence: 80%
Oct 11 —
Prediction: Sacramento State
L 21–31 —
Rationale: Weber State (at home in Ogden) is one of the tougher Big Sky road environments; altitude and Weber’s balanced offense make this a tough spot. Expect a competitive game but Sac State comes up short.
Confidence: 60%
Oct 18 —
Prediction: Sacramento State
W 38–14 —
Rationale: Homecoming, matchup favors Hornets; should be a relatively comfortable win.
Confidence: 85%
Oct 24 (Fri) —
Prediction: Sacramento State
W 27–24 —
Rationale: Friday night home game vs traditionally strong Montana. Tight, physical Big Sky matchup decided by special teams or late defensive play — favor Sacramento State at home.
Confidence: 55%
Nov 1 —
Prediction: Sacramento State
L 20–28 —
Rationale: EWU’s air-raid / spread attack at Roos Field is a nightmare for visitors; expect a shootout where turnovers/one big drive decide it. I lean EWU.
Confidence: 60%
Nov 8 —
Prediction: Sacramento State
W 31–20 —
Rationale: Road but manageable — Hornets execute better and win a controlled road game.
Confidence: 70%
Nov 15 —
Prediction: Sacramento State
W 30–23 —
Rationale: Idaho is talented but Sac State at home has the edge. Close game; Hornets win in 4th quarter.
Confidence: 60%
Nov 22 —
Prediction: Sacramento State
L 24–27 —
Rationale: The rivalry is tight, often comes down to turnovers and special teams. On the road in Davis, give the slight edge to UC Davis in a one-possession game.
Confidence: 55%
Regular-season summary / final regular record (projected)
- Predicted regular-season record: 7–5 (Big Sky record: 5–3)
(Wins: Mercyhurst, Central Arkansas, Cal Poly, Northern Colorado, Montana, Portland State, Idaho. Losses: South Dakota State, Nevada, Weber State, Eastern Washington, UC Davis.)
FCS Playoffs projection (predicted path & outcomes)
I project Sacramento State
earns an at-large bid to the 24-team FCS Playoffs (Big Sky normally gets multiple berths; the Hornets’ resume with a 7-5 regular season and key wins at home should be enough for an at-large).
Projected playoff finish: reach the Second Round.
- First Round (Predicted opponent): Host a mid-seed at-large team (example: Samford or Richmond-type opponent).
Prediction: Sacramento State W 31–24 — Rationale: Home game, favorable matchup vs a mid-seed; Hornets use home crowd and balanced offense to advance.
- Second Round (Predicted opponent): Run into a top-seed/near top-seed (example: South Dakota State or another 1–4 seed).
Prediction: Sacramento State L 17–34 — Rationale: Top seeds (SDSU, etc.) are elite FCS programs; Sacramento State falls to a stronger, deeper team in round two.
Final overall record (including playoffs): 8–6 (lose in Second Round)
Quick summary & confidence
- Regular season: 7–5 (projected).
- Playoffs: Win first round at home, lose in Second Round. Final record 8–6.
- Most likely limiting factors: depth vs elite FCS teams (SDSU), road losses (Weber, EWU, UC Davis).
- Upside: If QB play clicks and turnover margin is positive, Sacramento State could flip 1-2 of those close losses (Weber / UC Davis) and reach deeper into the playoffs.
