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Week 5 - #10 Sac State at Northern Arizona

SDHornet

SDHornet

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Week 5 - #10 Sac State at Northern Arizona

The 10th ranked Hornets (2-2) head to Flagstaff to open conference play against the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (2-2). Head Coach Brian Wright was brought in during the offseason from the D2 ranks to get NAU back into winning form.

The Jacks are a well rounded team and have had some solid performances on the year. Week 2 featured a tough battle against in-state rival Arizona. NAU held a narrow halftime lead until the Wildcats were able to get some 4th quarter scores that resulted in a 10-22 loss. In week 3, the Jacks took care of business on the road against an inferior Utah Tech team with a 45-17 blowout win. Last week NAU traveled to San Antonio and gave 15th ranked Incarnate Word all they could handle for a half, unfortunately turnovers and lack of execution in the passing game led to a 2nd half rout and an eventual 14-38 loss.

The NAU offense runs standard run-pass option out of the shotgun/pistol, primarily in 11 and 12 personnel. The Jacks are a run-first team that favors the run about 60% of the time and will push tempo if they get into rhythm. NAU is also aggressive in short yardage situations, expect a lot of 4th down attempts in a close game. The Jacks like to pull linemen on both the run and play action. Quarterback Ty Pennington (49/82, 568 yds, 4 TD, 34 car, 138 yds, 3 TD) is a dual threat that can extend plays with his legs. Pennington has an accurate arm and makes good decisions who also has no issue throwing on the run. Wide receivers Ta’ir Brooks (9 rec, 183 yds, 3 TD) and BJ Flemming (9 rec, 163 yds, 1 TD) are the leading targets. Tight end Bryzai White (7 rec, 113 yds, 1 TD) also plays a significant role. In the backfield, running backs Darvon Hubbard (34 car, 231 yds, 2 TD, 3 rec, 26 yds) and Seth Cromwell (34 car, 150 yds, 2 TD) split the carries alongside Pennington. The Jacks offensive line has good size and athleticism and mirrors that of the Hornets.

Offensive Team Stats
  • Points scored per game: 33.3 (3rd BSC / 18th FCS)
  • Total Offense: 412.3 ypg (207.3 rushing ypg / 205.0 passing ypg) - 4th (3rd / 7th) BSC
  • Sacks Allowed: 8 (T-8th BSC)
  • Turnovers: 1/5 (INT/Fum)
  • Red Zone: 12/17 - 10/2 (TD/FG) - 11th BSC
Defensively, the Jacks operate out of the 3-3 and have performed well so far this season. Last week got out of hand a bit but the Jacks defense has good pursuit and sound tackling. The Jack defense blitzes from various positions and gets after the quarterback often. Linebackers Ammon Allen (26 tak, 4 TFL, 2 sac) and Tommy Ellis (25 tak, 2 TFL, 1 sac, 1 INT) lead the defense with free safety Alex McLaughlin (25 tak, 1.5 TFL, 1.5 sac) anchoring the secondary. Nose tackle Micah Carreon McLaughlin (22 tak, 4 TFL) is a disruptor up front. 10 different players on the NAU defense have a sack this season.

Defensive Team Stats
  • Points allowed per game: 20.8 (4th BSC / 25th FCS)
  • Total Defense: 308.0 ypg (155.8 rushing ypg / 152.3 passing ypg) - 3rd (7th / 1st) BSC
  • Sacks : 11 (4th BSC)
  • Turnovers: 3/2 (INT/Fum)
  • Red Zone: 7/8 - 6/1 (TD/FG) - 6th BSC
On special teams, NAU has not attempted many field goals. Kicker Marcus Lye (2/3 FG, 14/14 PAT) has a long of 38 yards on the season. Punter Ben D’Aquila (9 pnt, 45.2 ypp) has a long of 55 yards on the season and has 2 punts downed inside the 20. The Jacks have not returned many kicks this season, but J’Wan Evans is averaging 24 yards per return and their kickoff coverage is only allowing 13 yards per return.

Hornet Team Stats
  • Points scored per game: 30.5 (5th BSC / 29th FCS)
  • Points allowed per game: 23.8 (7th BSC / T-40th FCS)
  • Total Offense: 411.8 ypg (173.3 rushing ypg / 238.5 passing ypg) - 5th (7th / 4th) BSC
  • Total Defense: 317.0 ypg (63.5 rushing ypg / 253.5 passing ypg) - 5th (1st / 9th) BSC
  • Turnovers: 5/6 (INT/Fum)
  • Turnovers Forced: 6/4 (INT/Fum)
  • Red Zone Offense: 15/21 - 10/5 (TD/FG) - 9th BSC
  • Red Zone Defense: 8/12 - 7/1 (TD/FG) - T-1st BSC
Position Advantage
  • Quarterback: Jacks. Ty Pennington can both run and pass effectively whereas the Hornets only have a quarterback that can do one or the other. I’d have this as a push if the Hornet coaches platooned the quarterbacks accordingly.
  • Running Backs: Hornets. Elijah Tau-Tolliver will be the best running back on the field, however the Jacks have better depth.
  • Wide Receivers: Hornets. Hornet receivers have better numbers but the Jack receivers have comparable talent. If NAU cleans up the drops, these two units would be pretty even.
  • Tight Ends: Jacks. Bryzai White is more effective in the passing game than Coleman Kuntz.
  • Offensive Line: Hornets. Both lines have good athleticism to go with their size. They are mirror images of each other but the Hornets protect the quarterback better.
  • Defensive Line: Hornets. The Jacks have a stout front 3 but the Hornets have impressed all season long.
  • Linebackers: Push. Ammon Allen and Tommy Ellis have a slight edge in the stats over Will Leota and Nakian Jackson, but not by much.
  • Defensive Backs: Jacks. The Jack secondary plays the run better, but the Hornets have forced more turnovers. Alex McLaughlin will be the best defensive back on the field.
  • Punters: Jacks. Ben D’Aquila has a slight edge in punt average and has dropped a few less inside the 20 on fewer attempts than Cal McGough.
  • Kickers: Hornets. Zach Schreiner has a better body of work than Marcus Lye.
  • Kick Returners: Push. This game is at elevation so every kickoff should be a touchback.
NAU is usually a tough game for the Hornets, especially at elevation in Flagstaff. The last time the Hornets played in Flagstaff in 2019, a miracle happened and the Hornets stole a win by scoring 2 touchdowns in the final 2 minutes of the game. In that game, the Hornets were pretty banged up and missing key players due to injury. This season, the Hornets are similarly banged up and will have to dig into the depth chart looking for someone to step up. Last season the Hornets needed a red zone interception to seal the win against a surging Lumberjacks team looking to turn their season around. This season, the Jacks will be looking to get back on track following some sloppy ball control.

There are a lot of positive signs from this NAU team so far and they appear to be on track to be a contender in the BSC in the coming years. I thought NAU would be working out more kinks given the coaching changes but this team looks ready for the tough schedule ahead. This will be a tough game for the Hornets.

This game concerns me a lot more now than it did before the season began. I can’t help but think that the Hornets are going to need the versatility of KB to win this game as the NAU defensive front will key in on the RPO-less Hornet offense. I’m not confident that vintage early 2000’s play calling will be effective in Flagstaff, but I’m sticking with a Hornet win as I expect Coach Thompson to have this impressive Hornet defense amped to play in his former stomping grounds.

Stingers Up!

NAU at Arizona Highlights:

NAU at Utah Tech
 
Curious who the platoon QB is in your eyes? Baker can run, but he is tiny and I worry about his longevity. Carter Kraft is tiny and playing defense right now. Everyone else that is healthy is a pocket passer.
 
stingthemgood said:
Curious who the platoon QB is in your eyes? Baker can run, but he is tiny and I worry about his longevity. Carter Kraft is tiny and playing defense right now. Everyone else that is healthy is a pocket passer.
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Assuming KB can run and at least throw the ball 10 yards, him and Conklin. If KB can't go, then ignore the platoon idea and hand the keys to Conklin.
 
I am concerned more about this game than the Nicholls game. Jacks got rid of the clown coaches and now look pretty solid in all aspects. Our defense front rotation of 4 in 4 out will help keep the front part of the D from getting gassed from the elevation.
 
Sounds like Conklin is the horse we are going to have to ride through the rest of the season. Baker and Craft, are they remotely ready? This has historically been a tough game, same with ISU. We generally have trouble in these barns.
 
Green Cookie Monster said:
Sounds like Conklin is the horse we are going to have to ride through the rest of the season. Baker and Craft, are they remotely ready? This has historically been a tough game, same with ISU. We generally have trouble in these barns.
Click to expand...

I would like to see Jordan Barton in the redzone maybe if KB is unavailable. They should have a handful of plays queued up for him inside the 25 in case the moment arises. He rushed for 7 TDs at Riverside CC last year, and is a legit throwing on the move threat. His YPC isn't impressive, but you have to account for the sack yards lost.
 
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