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Week 8 - (RV) SAC (4-3, 3-1 Big Sky) vs. (#4) Montana (7-0 3-0 Big Sky)
- Thread starter Kadeezy
- Start date
Kadeezy
Active member
We have 5 games left:
vs. UM
@ EWU
@PSU
vs. Idaho
@UCD
If we end up 7-5, with our last two losses against UM and UCD, I don't think we make the playoffs. But, if we beat either UM or UCD and end up 7-5, we have a shot.
I think we have to finish 4-1 in these last 5 which means we either need to clip UM or UCD. That would leave us at 8-4 with a Top 10 win. That is hosting round 1 territory.
Go 5-0, we are 9-3, possibly CO-Big Sky champs, two top 10 wins, and a lock for a seed.
vs. UM
@ EWU
@PSU
vs. Idaho
@UCD
If we end up 7-5, with our last two losses against UM and UCD, I don't think we make the playoffs. But, if we beat either UM or UCD and end up 7-5, we have a shot.
I think we have to finish 4-1 in these last 5 which means we either need to clip UM or UCD. That would leave us at 8-4 with a Top 10 win. That is hosting round 1 territory.
Go 5-0, we are 9-3, possibly CO-Big Sky champs, two top 10 wins, and a lock for a seed.
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The 4th ranked Montana Pandas (7-0, 3-0 BSC)...err I mean Grizzlies come to town for their 2nd road game of the year for an ESPN2 Friday night matchup. The Griz had a comeback 24-23 win against 16th ranked North Dakota in week 3, a dominant 41-30 win over 8th ranked Idaho in week 5, a second half 28-9 comeback win against Cal Poly 2 weeks ago, and come into this game off of a big 43-21 win over Sacred Heart last week. Montana is in a very strong position to make a run at the BSC title.
Offensively, quarterback Kealii Ah Yat (155/227, 2042 yds, 14 TD, 6 INT, 40 car, 92 yds, 3 TD) is a scrappy player that has done a good job of managing the offense. Ah Yat excels at extending plays with his legs and is quick and shifty enough to pose a threat on the RPO. Ah Yat has a good arm and good accuracy on the quick short throws that keeps the chains moving. Receivers Michael Wortham (42 rec, 610 yds, 5 TD, 28 car, 134 yds, 3 TD) and Brooks Davis (26 rec, 350 yds, 2 TD) are the main targets in the passing game. Five other players have at least 11 receptions). In the backfield, Eli Gillman (122 car, 776 yds, 11 TD, 15 rec, 116 yds, 2 TD) is their big play running back with Stevie Rocker Jr (31 car, 195 yds, 2 TD, 14 rec, 125 yds) getting notable carries. Wortham and Gilman are playmakers and the Griz get creative in getting the ball into their hands. The Griz run a lot of short quick hitter passes and then work in some shots down the field to stretch the defense. This approach helps the Griz offensive line who are decent but not nearly as good as past Griz teams the Hornets have seen in recent past.
On defense, Montana has been pretty stingy and has only given up 30 or more points twice this season. They are able to give a bunch of different looks from their 3-3-5 alignment. The Griz are an aggressive front that pursues the ball well and has forced 11 turnovers (9 INT, 2 fum) and has 15 sacks on the year. Linebacker Elijawah Tolbert (50 tak, 2.5 TFL, 0.5 sac) leads UM in tackles and defensive end Hunter Peck (20 tak, 5 TFL, 3.5 sac) is constantly in the backfield as he leads the defense in tackles for loss and sacks. Linebacker Peyton Wing (30 tak, 2.5 TFL, 0.5 sac, 2 INT) leads the defense in interceptions.
On special teams, kicker Ty Morrison (5/7 FG, 34/34 PAT) struggles with accuracy beyond 40 yards but has a long of 42 on the year. Morrison also punts and he averages 43 yards per punt. In the return game, Wortham is a dangerous returner who is averaging almost 27 yards a return.
The Hornets will have their hands full on both sides of the ball. The Hornet defense has a propensity of giving up big plays and UM has the players that can make a house call on any given play. I think the Hornet defensive front is up to the task of clogging up the running lanes on the interior but the quick pass plays will limit the opportunities for the Hornets to get sacks.
On offense, the Hornets are going to need to pass the ball to keep the UM defense honest. Otherwise they will load the box and make it hard to run the ball. It does appear to be a favorable matchup for the Hornet offensive line, but the quickness of the linebackers will make things interesting.
Preseason I had this as a Montana win, but there has been too much smack talk and vitriol to not pick the Hornets in an all or nothing game like this. There is some rain in the forecast so weather may come into play on Friday night. The atmosphere should be electric, looking forward to an entertaining game.
Stingers Up!
Offensively, quarterback Kealii Ah Yat (155/227, 2042 yds, 14 TD, 6 INT, 40 car, 92 yds, 3 TD) is a scrappy player that has done a good job of managing the offense. Ah Yat excels at extending plays with his legs and is quick and shifty enough to pose a threat on the RPO. Ah Yat has a good arm and good accuracy on the quick short throws that keeps the chains moving. Receivers Michael Wortham (42 rec, 610 yds, 5 TD, 28 car, 134 yds, 3 TD) and Brooks Davis (26 rec, 350 yds, 2 TD) are the main targets in the passing game. Five other players have at least 11 receptions). In the backfield, Eli Gillman (122 car, 776 yds, 11 TD, 15 rec, 116 yds, 2 TD) is their big play running back with Stevie Rocker Jr (31 car, 195 yds, 2 TD, 14 rec, 125 yds) getting notable carries. Wortham and Gilman are playmakers and the Griz get creative in getting the ball into their hands. The Griz run a lot of short quick hitter passes and then work in some shots down the field to stretch the defense. This approach helps the Griz offensive line who are decent but not nearly as good as past Griz teams the Hornets have seen in recent past.
On defense, Montana has been pretty stingy and has only given up 30 or more points twice this season. They are able to give a bunch of different looks from their 3-3-5 alignment. The Griz are an aggressive front that pursues the ball well and has forced 11 turnovers (9 INT, 2 fum) and has 15 sacks on the year. Linebacker Elijawah Tolbert (50 tak, 2.5 TFL, 0.5 sac) leads UM in tackles and defensive end Hunter Peck (20 tak, 5 TFL, 3.5 sac) is constantly in the backfield as he leads the defense in tackles for loss and sacks. Linebacker Peyton Wing (30 tak, 2.5 TFL, 0.5 sac, 2 INT) leads the defense in interceptions.
On special teams, kicker Ty Morrison (5/7 FG, 34/34 PAT) struggles with accuracy beyond 40 yards but has a long of 42 on the year. Morrison also punts and he averages 43 yards per punt. In the return game, Wortham is a dangerous returner who is averaging almost 27 yards a return.
The Hornets will have their hands full on both sides of the ball. The Hornet defense has a propensity of giving up big plays and UM has the players that can make a house call on any given play. I think the Hornet defensive front is up to the task of clogging up the running lanes on the interior but the quick pass plays will limit the opportunities for the Hornets to get sacks.
On offense, the Hornets are going to need to pass the ball to keep the UM defense honest. Otherwise they will load the box and make it hard to run the ball. It does appear to be a favorable matchup for the Hornet offensive line, but the quickness of the linebackers will make things interesting.
Preseason I had this as a Montana win, but there has been too much smack talk and vitriol to not pick the Hornets in an all or nothing game like this. There is some rain in the forecast so weather may come into play on Friday night. The atmosphere should be electric, looking forward to an entertaining game.
Stingers Up!
Kadeezy
Active member
Sac State Gets its “Prove It” Chance vs. Montana on National TV
The Hornets can make a big statement on Friday.
www.underdogdynasty.com
Kadeezy
Active member
Must Watch FCS Game on Friday Night
What was an already important Big Sky Conference game on Friday night has become must watch TV because of several comments
mikefarrellsports.com
Kadeezy
Active member
Montana Football Coach Blasts Sacramento State President As 'Kind Of A Clown' After Violent Brawl
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It will come down to:
a. Can Williams find an arm and accurately deliver the ball to the good guys?
b. Can Sac secondary contain the opposing QB?
c. No turnovers, no completed hail Mary TD bombs down the sideline and no stupid PF penalties.
Kadeezy
Active member
The penalties will be the delta in this match. We are the most penalized program in the BSC and we always get flagged for breathing towards the Montana QB.a. Probably not.
b. I think so.
c. No you're getting greedy.
SochorField
Active member
I'm glad this one is on Friday night. I'll be able to tune into some of it.
This is going to be a good & entertaining game and highly charged emotionally.
A few thoughts:
Montana is going to present significant challenges for Sac's ground game. (conference-only stats) Montana is #3 in scoring defense and #2 in rushing defense. Whether they've "played nobody" or not, they are really good. They did allow 202 on the ground to North Dakota (another good team).
I think Sac's general sloppiness could catch up to them against a really strong opponent. It nearly caught up to them against a really well coached team least week.
(conference-only stats) Sac is #1 in rushing offense and #12 in passing offense.
Obviously the game plan is to stack the box and force C. Williams to complete an 8 yard pass.
I will say though, Sac is improving and I'm guessing will be their strongest by Causeway. But I have the Pandas winning by 7.
This is going to be a good & entertaining game and highly charged emotionally.
A few thoughts:
Montana is going to present significant challenges for Sac's ground game. (conference-only stats) Montana is #3 in scoring defense and #2 in rushing defense. Whether they've "played nobody" or not, they are really good. They did allow 202 on the ground to North Dakota (another good team).
I think Sac's general sloppiness could catch up to them against a really strong opponent. It nearly caught up to them against a really well coached team least week.
(conference-only stats) Sac is #1 in rushing offense and #12 in passing offense.
Obviously the game plan is to stack the box and force C. Williams to complete an 8 yard pass.
I will say though, Sac is improving and I'm guessing will be their strongest by Causeway. But I have the Pandas winning by 7.
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When the biggest argument against Montana's weak schedule is to attack the messenger's vernacular (saw it on Twitter constantly), then there is no real argument. Nobody knows how good Montana truly is this year, including Montana.
Two of our three loses have come down to the passing game. Lack of passing against SDSU and INTs against Cal Poly. Nevada was on coach and the refs. This game may indeed come down to Williams completing simple passes.
Nothing else about the team worries me. Not talent wise. Big plays against our team happen because everything is predicated on qb pressure. Our corners stay on an island and can get burned as a result. The coaching staff is going to have to decide if it's worth it by halftime and adjust accordingly.
But if Sac State can overpower Montana's defensive line and get their 300 yards rushing, then it will be a close no matter what our passing game looks like.
Two of our three loses have come down to the passing game. Lack of passing against SDSU and INTs against Cal Poly. Nevada was on coach and the refs. This game may indeed come down to Williams completing simple passes.
Nothing else about the team worries me. Not talent wise. Big plays against our team happen because everything is predicated on qb pressure. Our corners stay on an island and can get burned as a result. The coaching staff is going to have to decide if it's worth it by halftime and adjust accordingly.
But if Sac State can overpower Montana's defensive line and get their 300 yards rushing, then it will be a close no matter what our passing game looks like.
ClarkWGrizwald
Active member
But to be fair, that's not the only argument regarding UM's schedule. Sac has played a more difficult schedule (albeit with some absolute cupcakes tossed in), but the difference is Sac hasn't beaten any good teams. Montana has a win against #8 North Dakota, and has a solid win over a team that beat Sac in Sacramento. And of course UM beat a highly ranked (at the time) Idaho team as well. They're 2-0 against the Mo Valley.
We'll obviously know much more late Friday night, but the "hasn't played anyone" argument is simply a nonstarter.
LoveSacState
Member
I find it comical that people think Dr. Wood’s words mean so much to this game. He doesn’t suit up. The players for Sac State aren’t making the comments, and neither is Coach Marion or his staff. The fixation on Dr. Wood’s words is just that—a fixation. In the big scheme of things, it’s all about what happens in the trenches. I believe Sac State’s O-line is better than Montana’s D-line. The secondary needs to be A-1 this week for Sac State, because Montana can pass the ball well with QB Ah Yat. If Sac can run the ball, they’ll win the game; if they can’t, they’ll lose. It’s that simple to me. I think it will be an absolute battle.
If Montana needs bulletin-board material to get pumped for a conference game against a solid Sac State team, then they’re in trouble. Not once have you heard any coach or player from Sac State say a word. I think Marion understands what they need to do, and they’ll be ready to go. Should be a great game.
If Montana needs bulletin-board material to get pumped for a conference game against a solid Sac State team, then they’re in trouble. Not once have you heard any coach or player from Sac State say a word. I think Marion understands what they need to do, and they’ll be ready to go. Should be a great game.
Fair enough. Idaho didn't turn out to be who we thought they were, but you can only play who's on the schedule.
Sac State had their tough games right in the beginning while they had no identity and were still tinkering. It wasn't until after the Cal Poly loss that the coaches learned, we're just going to have to run it.
So I think the matchup is coming at the right time for a national audience. Not sure Sac State is strong enough yet to beat a more well rounded Montana team, but it will be fun and probably close.
The narrative that Sac or Montana isn't good is just internet banter. No real fan that watches games/highlights can make such a statement with a straight face. Lots of talent on the roster for both programs.
I do like how well the Hornets matchup in the trenches on both sides. I want to see a power football approach from the Hornet offense and hope Coach Marion doesn't over think this one. No frills, no pulling linemen or long developing misdirection plays. Just straight hand in the dirt, hat on hat blocking and just power up the gut and off tackle. I hope to see lots of use of Norris and big tight ends on wham blocks with lots of violence on at the point of attack. Force the Griz defense to muscle up and over commit to the interior and then work some plays on the edge for chunk yards and work in the occasional deep shot to Campbell. If the Hornets have to rely on Williams to win the game with his arm then this will be a loss.
Hornet defense needs to contain Ah Yat and force him to throw from the pocket. I don't think the Griz will call a lot of deep drop/slow route developing plays so hands up and containment on the edge will be critical for the defensive front. Open field tackling will be huge, unfortunately the Hornet defense has struggled with this a lot this season. There will be a lot of plays underneath with reliance of YAC abilities of their quick and shifty skilled players. Honestly I'm not sure how to really stop this. Maybe the Hornets just press the line of scrimmage and hope the line can get to Ah Yat before he connects on a deep one, which is pretty much what we saw against UNC. I expect the Griz offensive approach to be death by a thousand paper cuts as they dink and donk their way down the field.
I do like how well the Hornets matchup in the trenches on both sides. I want to see a power football approach from the Hornet offense and hope Coach Marion doesn't over think this one. No frills, no pulling linemen or long developing misdirection plays. Just straight hand in the dirt, hat on hat blocking and just power up the gut and off tackle. I hope to see lots of use of Norris and big tight ends on wham blocks with lots of violence on at the point of attack. Force the Griz defense to muscle up and over commit to the interior and then work some plays on the edge for chunk yards and work in the occasional deep shot to Campbell. If the Hornets have to rely on Williams to win the game with his arm then this will be a loss.
Hornet defense needs to contain Ah Yat and force him to throw from the pocket. I don't think the Griz will call a lot of deep drop/slow route developing plays so hands up and containment on the edge will be critical for the defensive front. Open field tackling will be huge, unfortunately the Hornet defense has struggled with this a lot this season. There will be a lot of plays underneath with reliance of YAC abilities of their quick and shifty skilled players. Honestly I'm not sure how to really stop this. Maybe the Hornets just press the line of scrimmage and hope the line can get to Ah Yat before he connects on a deep one, which is pretty much what we saw against UNC. I expect the Griz offensive approach to be death by a thousand paper cuts as they dink and donk their way down the field.
I think Idaho had their starting QB get hurt prior to the UNC game a few weeks back. Nonetheless, at some point I expected them to come off their program high once Coach Eck left...just surprise their fall came within half a season.
