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Week 9: Bye Discussion...

Kadeezy

Kadeezy

Active member
PLAYOFFS!?!?!?!?!?! Why not???? :clap: We likely have to win out to have a shot (we'd have 7 DI wins).



REVISED SEASON PROJECTION

@SJSU - L (0-1)
@ASU - L (0-2)
SOU - W (1-2)
SUU - L (1-3)
@WSU - W (2-3, 1-0)
UNC - W (3-3, 2-0)
NAU - L (3-4, 2-1)
@UND - W (4-4, 3-1)


UM - W (5-4, 4-1)
@CP - W (6-4, 5-1)
@PSU - W (7-4, 6-1)
UCD - W (8-4, 7-1)
 
The biggest thing we need to do this week is to heal! We really need Graham and the rest of the other backs
and the OL healthy. I don't see any of the remaining teams as unbeatable if we play a solid game and are at full strength.
Montana apparently lost their starting RB with a high ankle sprain for at least for this week and it sounds like their QB is having shoulder problems. I think that Montana will have a real war with EWU Saturday, I wouldn't be surprised if EMU takes it. Who knows what Montana will bring to town on the 2nd.
 
I’ll play the pessimistic role here. I honestly don’t see a reason to get excited or even discuss the playoffs. We haven’t beaten any respectable teams this season and have not shown to have what it takes to hang onto a lead against a good team. All the Hornets have proven as that they are still just a middle of the road BSC team that can beat the crappy teams and compete (but not win) against the good teams. Nothing new to see here folks.
 
I thought about it the other day, figuring out what I thought might happen if we won out. Given likely surrounding game scenarios, that would put us in second place at 8-4/7-2. Remember that one of those 8 wins won't count for much because it's an NAIA win. If my scenarios work out, we'll be in a two-way tie for second with NAU. UM, MSU, and CP will be the other teams in the conversation. While we'll be ahead of UM and MSU in the standings, they will be ranked the entire way, and we will likely not sniff the Top 25; as such, they will get at larges before we're even looked at. That leaves CP and NAU. We lose head-to-head with NAU, and CP might have rankings before then. We're probably looking at 4th or 5th choice at best. I don't think we're going to get 5 teams in, even if we go to 24 teams this season (I'm still not sure if we're still on 20 or not.) There will be at least three or four one-bid leagues that will eat up valuable spots (Pioneer, Patriot, etc.) Heck, the Big South MIGHT swing two for the first time in ages (and no, it won't be Liberty).

I think we're on the outside looking in even if we win out, barring some major miracles. It seems as if we blew the season with the NAU game, not to mention the OOC overscheduling. See SD's very cogent points, as well. We're done....
 
I'm not thinking playoffs right now but anything is possible. I still don't see a totally dominant team in the BSC this season. All teams seem to have specific strengths and weaknesses, games will be decided on how teams match up and how well they execute that day. Who knows, maybe 1 BSC loss will win it outright! Right now we need to focus on giving the Montana School for Felons their second or third BSC loss!
 
SDHornet said:
I’ll play the pessimistic role here. I honestly don’t see a reason to get excited or even discuss the playoffs. We haven’t beaten any respectable teams this season and have not shown to have what it takes to hang onto a lead against a good team. All the Hornets have proven as that they are still just a middle of the road BSC team that can beat the crappy teams and compete (but not win) against the good teams. Nothing new to see here folks.
Click to expand...

I will echo this comment

:dead: Playoff topic. There are at least 30 teams ahead of us with quality wins. I will chalk this up to finding Jawalrus Russell's Purple drank stash.

I would add to SD's comment, "Move along citizen"
 
HornetHope said:
SDHornet said:
I’ll play the pessimistic role here. I honestly don’t see a reason to get excited or even discuss the playoffs. We haven’t beaten any respectable teams this season and have not shown to have what it takes to hang onto a lead against a good team. All the Hornets have proven as that they are still just a middle of the road BSC team that can beat the crappy teams and compete (but not win) against the good teams. Nothing new to see here folks.
Click to expand...

I will echo this comment

:dead: Playoff topic. There are at least 30 teams ahead of us with quality wins. I will chalk this up to finding Jawalrus Russell's Purple drank stash.

I would add to SD's comment, "Move along citizen"
Click to expand...

Some more echoing here. Sperb has only beaten the woefully bad teams. Any team with even a faint pulse, he has managed to lose to. Sadly, he will win out enough to keep his job.
 
We've seen this movie far too many times to believe that the Hornets have any realistic shot of winning out. Even 3-1 is far too unrealistic, especially considering the level of the opposition. I'd take 2-2 if you offered it to me right now, but 6-6 still gets the Hornets nowhere. I don't even think 7-5 gets them in. We have to hope for an unprecedented miracle right about now.
 
BuckeyeHornetFan said:
We've seen this movie far too many times to believe that the Hornets have any realistic shot of winning out. Even 3-1 is far too unrealistic, especially considering the level of the opposition. I'd take 2-2 if you offered it to me right now, but 6-6 still gets the Hornets nowhere. I don't even think 7-5 gets them in. We have to hope for an unprecedented miracle right about now.
Click to expand...

I'll certainly grant you this. But as I noted above, even with the expando-playoffs, I'm not certain 8-4 will get the job done, either. There are just too many other good teams this season....
 
GoldenEagleHornet said:
Some more echoing here. Sperb has only beaten the woefully bad teams. Any team with even a faint pulse, he has managed to lose to. Sadly, he will win out enough to keep his job.
Click to expand...
This is what it is shaping up to be. :ohno:

I will say that if we win out we will get a playoff bid...but we won't win out.
 
SDHornet said:
I’ll play the pessimistic role here. I honestly don’t see a reason to get excited or even discuss the playoffs. We haven’t beaten any respectable teams this season and have not shown to have what it takes to hang onto a lead against a good team. All the Hornets have proven as that they are still just a middle of the road BSC team that can beat the crappy teams and compete (but not win) against the good teams. Nothing new to see here folks.
Click to expand...

Amen brother!
 
I can't believe I'M the voice of optomism... lol

I think I've just gone completely insane or something and entered some alternate reality... I do agree that we need to win out to make the playoffs... I believe we'll be underdogs against UM and CP, and slight favorites over PSU and UCD.

Est. % Chance of Victory

UM - W (5-4, 4-1) - 40% CHANCE
@CP - W (6-4, 5-1) - 45% CHANCE
@PSU - W (7-4, 6-1) - 60% CHANCE
UCD - W (8-4, 7-1) - 65% CHANCE

P.S. We are receiving votes in the TSN Poll for the first time in a while. I think winning out would land us in the 20-25 range, playing on the road in Rd. 1. I look forward to the day when I can actually spend the money to attend a playoff game, no matter where it is!
 
If the Hornets finish 8-4, including a 7-1 league record, and don't make the playoffs .. the entire system needs to be scrapped. You go 7-1 in your league, I don't care how weak it may be, you have to be in. If not, what is the point of being affiliated with a league?
 
I agree with you, Buckeye, but knowing ECB as it is, plus the extended funk with which we opened the season, we will likely be so far under the radar that we will escape the notice of the selection committee. That's ESPECIALLY given the unwritten conference quotas; they consistently deny the existence of them, but everyone knows they're there. Rarely do they go over that, and then only for good reason, and usually for a school that would normally be in but screwed up. The question then arises: who would get dropped? And that's where the debate begins, and given ECB, that's likely where it will end for us. The BSC teams with playoff experience will get it before we do. We likely have to get the auto-bid to establish the precedent, and THAT is NOT going to happen this year....
 
Kadeezy said:
I can't believe I'M the voice of optomism... lol

I think I've just gone completely insane or something and entered some alternate reality... I do agree that we need to win out to make the playoffs... I believe we'll be underdogs against UM and CP, and slight favorites over PSU and UCD.

Est. % Chance of Victory

UM - W (5-4, 4-1) - 40% CHANCE
@CP - W (6-4, 5-1) - 45% CHANCE
@PSU - W (7-4, 6-1) - 60% CHANCE
UCD - W (8-4, 7-1) - 65% CHANCE

P.S. We are receiving votes in the TSN Poll for the first time in a while. I think winning out would land us in the 20-25 range, playing on the road in Rd. 1. I look forward to the day when I can actually spend the money to attend a playoff game, no matter where it is!
Click to expand...

Est % chance coaching staff messes the bed and invent new ways to take the foot off the gas? 100%

BTW Brian Berger voting for the Hornets to get us votes is not actually getting TSN votes

FWIW we have an excellent shot at going 5-7, and a decent shot 6-6.
 
Will enjoy seeing what happens in the games this weekend.

Hope all the Hornets heal up in the next week and get ready to take on the Griz.

Go Hornets!!
 
talked tonight to a UC Davis buddy who asked me about the 60th annual Causway Classic. He said that he got an email from the Davis athletic dept. about buying tickets for the game. Hope the Sac State marketing dept. is on it as well.
 
Bye week = zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz :lol:

Sorry, just had to put a little levity on the board.

At this point, I think I want to see EWU, NAU and MSU all win tomorrow. Im not sold on Montana being completely back and as for Poly, I just don't think that are a great team.
 
MSU, EWU and NAU do indeed win. All the ranked teams nationally. Montana is the lone ranked team that falls but will likely still be ranked with their overall record.

Go Hornets!!
 
Through week 9, here are the standings... Interesting...


Eastern Washington 4-0 6-2
Montana State 4-0 6-2
Northern Arizona 4-1 6-2
Sacramento State 3-1 4-4
Montana 3-2 6-2
Southern Utah 3-2 6-3
UC Davis 3-2 3-6
Cal Poly 2-2 3-5
Portland State 1-3 4-4
North Dakota 1-4 2-6
Idaho State 1-4 3-5
Northern Colorado 0-4 1-7
Weber State 0-4 1-7
 
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