2018 Season chances of winning

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bigskyconf
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Something I do on other FCS sites, a sort of preview of the schedule for this season with my opinion of a chance of winning (a scale of 1-10 with 1 being no chance of winning to 10 being no chance of losing).

At Nevada (3)---It is always hard to predict an FCS win over an FBS team but Idaho State got by the Wolfpack last year. Can we make it two in a row? Sidenote, they play the Beavers two weeks after they play us.

At Oregon (2)---It seems like the Ducks love to feast on Big Sky opponents. But, a new coach and new schemes for them may open the door for us to be competitive. But it is still the Ducks, however.

College of Idaho (8)---An NAIA team (when I was at NAIA Rocky Mountain College, we considered ourselves to be between DII and DIII) with a fairly short football history. They may be tough, but this should be an easy win.

Montana State (5)---I'm glad we are playing the Bobcats right away. I think they will be tougher as the season goes on. Losing Murray is going to hurt them and conference road games are tough, no matter who you play.

At Idaho (3)---Vandals conference home opener and they will want to show their fans they are so much better than the rest of the conference. The Kibbie Dome can get loud and rocking. We will need to play with poise.

At Montana (4)---Like Idaho, a nightmare for opposing teams to play in Missoula. Teams generally lose their poise and discipline as the game goes on. There have been some defections so far. Hard to tell if that is good or bad.

Northern Colorado (7)---Like us, a team relegated to near the bottom of the standings. We are better on paper, and the game is in our second home (at least this year anyway). We should get this one.

at Sacramento State (5)---This game could go either way, as long as we remain disciplined. Hornets are supposed to be good this year but we have the talent (on paper anyway) to match them. We could surprise them.

Idaho State (6)---Bengals have some athletes but we are playing at home so we should have the edge in this one. Once again, a game against another bottom feeder team. This is ours for the taking.

at North Dakota (4)---Hard to tell how the Hawks will play, with no chance at a conference championship. We are one of the unlucky ones to play them and at this point in the season, it could be tough.

Eastern Washington (4)---For the Dam Cup and we get them at home. They are loaded and at this point will most likely be playing for a seed in the playoffs. They will be hungry. But I have a feeling, so will we.
Alan
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Joined: July 27th, 2015, 3:10 pm
Favorite School: OCE

A little less optimistic estimate from the Massey Ratings: https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6302&s=300937
The chance of a PSU win:
@ Nevada 6%
@ Oregon 0%
College of Idaho 87%
Montana State 18%
@ Idaho 6%
@ Montana 9%
N. Colorado 43%
@ Sacramento State 11%
Idaho State 44%
@ N. Dakota 18%
E. Washington 10%
bigskyconf
Posts: 1631
Joined: September 6th, 2014, 4:09 pm
Favorite School: portland state

Alan wrote:
July 22nd, 2018, 2:16 pm
A little less optimistic estimate from the Massey Ratings: https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6302&s=300937
The chance of a PSU win:
@ Nevada 6%
@ Oregon 0%
College of Idaho 87%
Montana State 18%
@ Idaho 6%
@ Montana 9%
N. Colorado 43%
@ Sacramento State 11%
Idaho State 44%
@ N. Dakota 18%
E. Washington 10%
Will we get an apology from Massey when we beat the Rubber Duckies? :lol:

From what I recall, no one gave us a chance against Wazzu in 2015, mainly due to us losing to them 59-21 in 2014. :D
Alan
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Joined: July 27th, 2015, 3:10 pm
Favorite School: OCE

Mark Nelke, Sports Editor of The Coeur d'Alene Press takes a look at the strength of schedule for each of Big Sky teams: http://www.cdapress.com/sports/20180722 ... n_football
faithinviks
Posts: 128
Joined: December 4th, 2013, 1:06 pm
Favorite School: PSU

Based on history, leadership and changes from last year I see us with a 50% chance or better with only two teams this year - College of Idaho at 75% and No. Colorado at 50%.

Come on @bigsky conf to say we have basically a 70% chance to beat No CO is a big stretch even being a home game. I do like your Nevada with a 3 ranking though (the only hope for a shock this year is that first game, no film, overconfidence on the other side, and a weak D1). :thumb:
bigskyconf
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Joined: September 6th, 2014, 4:09 pm
Favorite School: portland state

faithinviks wrote:
July 24th, 2018, 11:24 am
Come on @bigsky conf to say we have basically a 70% chance to beat No CO is a big stretch even being a home game. I do like your Nevada with a 3 ranking though (the only hope for a shock this year is that first game, no film, overconfidence on the other side, and a weak D1). :thumb:
Not much faith there. :D

What I've been hearing about NoCo is that they brought in a "boatload" (not my words) of new people. Most publications have them #12 just above us. We at least have some good returnees and the game is at home (well, Providence Park anyway). You'd have to agree this is our best shot at a conference win. Similar to our game at Cal Poly last year, it would be a shock if the home team did not win this game. Based on that, I like our chances in this game (much better than 50-50). Of course I could be wrong...(but I doubt it, Charles Barkley voice).
Alan
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Joined: July 27th, 2015, 3:10 pm
Favorite School: OCE

Here is your "boatload": http://uncbears.com/news/2018/2/7/footb ... h=football.

I'd say the NoCO and ISU games are a little less than 50-50. The spring game offered no evidence that the glaring problems of 2017 have been solved.
faithinviks
Posts: 128
Joined: December 4th, 2013, 1:06 pm
Favorite School: PSU

You are right @Bigskyconf the No CO game seems to be our best shot at a conference win. Remember I voted we win 2 games so this should be the second one...but Charles, come on, MUCH better than 50-50 is a stretch :lol:
bigskyconf
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Favorite School: portland state

faithinviks wrote:
July 25th, 2018, 3:59 pm
You are right @Bigskyconf the No CO game seems to be our best shot at a conference win. Remember I voted we win 2 games so this should be the second one...but Charles, come on, MUCH better than 50-50 is a stretch :lol:
I say we win 4 conference games, 5 overall. Conference games I'm taking are Montana State, Northern Colorado, Sac State and Idaho State. Anything else is gravy to me.

I really don't see Northern Colorado as being that much better than College of Idaho, on paper anyway. A little bit, but not a whole lot better. It is a game that the season hinges on. We lose that game, well, I'm not going to feed the pessimism in here just yet. :ohno:
forestgreen
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Coach Barnum's take on the current roster and upcoming season:

PSU football, Barnum hope changes are for the better

https://pamplinmedia.com/pt/12-sports/4 ... the-better
Image
bigskyconf
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Joined: September 6th, 2014, 4:09 pm
Favorite School: portland state

forestgreen wrote:
July 26th, 2018, 8:34 am
Coach Barnum's take on the current roster and upcoming season:

PSU football, Barnum hope changes are for the better

https://pamplinmedia.com/pt/12-sports/4 ... the-better
Great article. Simple and to the point. Need to win. :thumb:
Alan
Posts: 579
Joined: July 27th, 2015, 3:10 pm
Favorite School: OCE

bigskyconf wrote:
July 26th, 2018, 9:27 am
forestgreen wrote:
July 26th, 2018, 8:34 am
Coach Barnum's take on the current roster and upcoming season:

PSU football, Barnum hope changes are for the better

https://pamplinmedia.com/pt/12-sports/4 ... the-better
Great article. Simple and to the point. Need to win. :thumb:
"I guarantee you that, once we get (the current recruiting class incorporated), if we don't win the league (championship), we'll be in the top three."

Other famous Barnum quotes: "...we have the best 0 and 2 team in the nation." That following BYU and OSU games last season. Hmm, I guess not. And, there will be "...no more blocked punts." That following a game full of them. Again, I guess not."

I am sure Coach Barnum wants to win. I hope that is enough.
faithinviks
Posts: 128
Joined: December 4th, 2013, 1:06 pm
Favorite School: PSU

Quotes from the article that stand out to me...

"This is my first time in this (head-coaching) chair," he says. "I'm figuring it out. I hope it's not too late."

PSU's redshirt seniors for the 2018 season were freshmen during Burton's final campaign in 2014. "I still have one year with not (all) my recruits," Barnum says. "That's what coaches look at when they're being evaluated."

"The last two years have been muddy for me, but I'm having a blast now."

Still learning, still blaming a past coach when 80%+ of players are his, claiming again that this is the year...I want so badly to find leadership and character and measurable progress so we can have hope in a turn around. I will trust @bigskyconf is right but am afraid this is going to be another ugly year with lots of excuses as to why...
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martymoose
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Four tight end sets?

I wonder if we'll just see those on short yardage / clock killing, or if we'll see that from time to time in traditional down/distance.
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Pounder
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martymoose wrote:
July 26th, 2018, 2:30 pm
Four tight end sets?

I wonder if we'll just see those on short yardage / clock killing, or if we'll see that from time to time in traditional down/distance.
While Oregon got most of the Pac-12 thinking fast, faster, and lightspeed, Stanford started going in directions like this (or at least their fullback and receivers were as big as tight ends) and made a good counterpoint of it.

Thing is, you have to have the personnel to make that work.
TeamHolt
Posts: 176
Joined: May 6th, 2017, 2:05 am
Favorite School: Portland state

Alan wrote:
July 26th, 2018, 10:25 am
bigskyconf wrote:
July 26th, 2018, 9:27 am
forestgreen wrote:
July 26th, 2018, 8:34 am
Coach Barnum's take on the current roster and upcoming season:

PSU football, Barnum hope changes are for the better

https://pamplinmedia.com/pt/12-sports/4 ... the-better
Great article. Simple and to the point. Need to win. :thumb:
Sounds like a fire has been lit under someone's yupp right there. :nod:
"I guarantee you that, once we get (the current recruiting class incorporated), if we don't win the league (championship), we'll be in the top three."

Other famous Barnum quotes: "...we have the best 0 and 2 team in the nation." That following BYU and OSU games last season. Hmm, I guess not. And, there will be "...no more blocked punts." That following a game full of them. Again, I guess not."

I am sure Coach Barnum wants to win. I hope that is enough.
I LOOK LIKE BARRY BONDS
C Trakel
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Joined: February 1st, 2016, 6:05 pm
Favorite School: Wisconsin
Location: Tumwater, WA

If it was a game of halves last year ... we would have been 11-0 ... looking forward to this season!

Go Viks!
Alan
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Joined: July 27th, 2015, 3:10 pm
Favorite School: OCE

Canzano interviews Coach Barnum who predicts better days ahead: https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/orego ... ach_b.html
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martymoose
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Alan wrote:
August 15th, 2018, 8:25 am
Canzano interviews Coach Barnum who predicts better days ahead: https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/orego ... ach_b.html
Interesting comments about our stadium situation.
bigskyconf
Posts: 1631
Joined: September 6th, 2014, 4:09 pm
Favorite School: portland state

martymoose wrote:
August 15th, 2018, 1:49 pm
Alan wrote:
August 15th, 2018, 8:25 am
Canzano interviews Coach Barnum who predicts better days ahead: https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/orego ... ach_b.html
Interesting comments about our stadium situation.
Canzano has been on this kick for about the last two weeks about Portland State needing an on-campus football stadium of some type. Throw it out to the coach and of course he'll be all for it. It is of course a long (stress, looonnnggg) way out there, but it certainly can't hurt having someone in the Portland media talking about it. The Pavilion was someone's pipe dream once.
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