2023 FCS Playoffs - 1st Round: #16 Sac State at #14 North Dakota
The 16th ranked Hornets (7-4, 4-4 BSC) head to Grand Forks to face the 14th ranked North Dakota Fighting Hawks (7-4, 5-3 MVFC) in the first round of the FCS playoffs. UND is back in the playoff for a 2nd consecutive season while the Hornets are in the playoffs for the 4th consecutive season. UND lost at Weber State in the first round last season while the Hornets fell in the quarterfinals to Incarnate Word. UND is coached by Bubba Schweigert who is in his 10th season while Hornet Head Coach Andy Thompson has reached the postseason in his inaugural season leading this program.
Similar to the Hornets, the Hawks have had an up and down season with a solid win against a top foe and struggles against the top teams of their respective conference. UND owns an opening week
55-7 win over the eventual Pioneer Football League Champion, Drake. UND followed that up with a dominating
37-22 week 2 win at home against Northern Arizona. UND took a
21-42 week 5 loss at defending FCS Champion South Dakota State before a dominant and eye opening
49-24 win at home against then 6th ranked North Dakota State. Other notable games include a
0-27 loss at Northern Iowa the following week and a hard fought
10-14 week 11 loss to a then 6th ranked South Dakota. UND secured their playoff berth last week with a come from behind
22-21 home win over Illinois State in the final minute of the game.
The Hawks offense has a lot of different looks ranging from traditional RPO with multiple tight end sets, shotgun spread and even some single back formations from under center. UND likes to work in a lot of misdirection from the motion. They almost always use a scrum play to pick up 3rd/4th and short. The UND offense is very balanced and favors the run about 54% of the time. Quarterback Tommy Schuster (197/277, 2119 yds, 18 TD, 4 INT) has good pocket presence, can extend plays with his legs and has a good accurate arm. His prime target is wide receiver Bo Belquist (61 rec, 682 yds, 5 TD) who is very athletic and can make plays down the field. Four other receivers have at least 13 receptions and over 200 receiving yards. The Hawks have a pair of running backs in Gaven Ziebarth (89 car, 604 yds, 7 TD) and Isaiah Smith (86 car, 513 yds, 2 TD, 24 rec, 178 yds, 1 TD) that are able to pound inside and break the big run. Up front, UND has a massive offensive line that can ground and pound as well as do a sufficient job in pass protection.
Offensive Team Stats
- Points scored per game: 31.1 (5th MVFC / 24th FCS)
- Total Offense: 364.1 ypg (150.7 rushing ypg / 213.4 passing ypg) - 7th (5th / 7th) MVFC - 58th (58th / 55th) FCS
- Sacks Allowed: 20 (6th MVFC)
- Redzone: 38/44 - 35/3 (TD/FG) - 7th MVFC / 24th FCS
The UND 3-4 defense has been middle of the pack in the MVFC this season but they did hold some of the better MVFC offenses below their season scoring averages. The Hawks defense isn’t really flashy, but they have proven themselves capable of getting the job done more times than not. Linebacker Wyatt Pedigo (68 tkl, 7.5 TFL, 4 sac) is the heart and soul of the defense as he leads the team in tackles and sacks with Malachi McNeal (64 tkl, 5.5 TFL, 3 sac) alongside. Linebacker Ted Mullin (37 tkl, 3.5 TFL, 2 INT) and cornerback Devin Hembry (30 tkl, 1 TFL, 2 INT) are tied atop the team for interceptions.
Defensive Team Stats
- Points allowed per game: 24.8 (6th MVFC / 52nd FCS)
- Total Defense: 383.1 ypg (147.3 rushing ypg / 235.8 passing ypg) - 9th (8th / 8th) MVFC - 80th (55th / 91stth) FCS
- Turnovers Forced: 7/6 (INT/Fum)
- Redzone: 36/40 - 27/9 (TD/FG) - 9th MVFC / T-113th FCS
UND’s kicking game doesn’t look particularly strong as kicker CJ Elrichs (4/6 FG, 28/28 PAT) hasn’t attempted many kicks, but he has a long of 42 yards on the year. Punter Luke Silvernale (34 pnt, 40 ypp) has dropped 9 inside the 20 and has 3 punts of 50+ yards. The kick return game is where UND excels. Returners Luke Skonkna and Red Wilson are averaging over 32 yards a return and both have taken one to the house this season.
Hornet Team Stats
- Points scored per game: 30.1 (6th BSC / T-27th FCS)
- Points allowed per game: 25.9 (6th BSC / 63rd FCS)
- Total Offense: 424.0 ypg (174.4 rushing ypg / 249.6 passing ypg) - 3rd (4th / 5th) BSC - 18th (25th / 24th) FCS
- Total Defense: 387.8 ypg (156.5 rushing ypg / 231.3 passing ypg) - 6th (7th / 8th) BSC - 84th (67th / T-87th) FCS
- Sacks Allowed: 14 (3rd BSC)
- Turnovers: 10/4 (INT/Fum)
- Turnovers Forced: 13/3 (INT/Fum)
- Redzone Offense: 43/49 - 33/10 (TD/FG) - 4th BSC / 17th FCS
- Redzone Defense: 31/38 - 22/9 (TD/FG) - 5th BSC / T-66th FCS
Position Advantage
- Quarterback: Hawks. Tommy Schuster is the ideal quarterback for a balanced attack while the Hornets coaching staff is (mysteriously) trying to figure out whether Kaiden Bennett or Carson Conklin would be the go to guy for this game.
- Running Backs: Hawks. The combination of Gaven Ziebarth and Isaiah Smith are a better one-two punch than an ailing Marcus Fulcher and inconsistent Elijah Tau-Tolliver.
- Wide Receivers: Hornets. The Hornets have more athleticism than the Hawks.
- Tight Ends: Hornets. Marshel Martin is a bigger part of the offense than Quincy Vaughn and Jaden Norby.
- Offensive Line: Hawks. UND is very big up front and should be able to dominate this game.
- Defensive Line: Push. The Hornets are pretty beat up in the interior. UND has good size at nose tackle that should pose issues for the inconsistent Hornet offensive line. Not really sure which way to go at this position, Hornets have 2 more sacks on the year compared to UND.
- Linebackers: Push. Armon Bailey finds the ball better and has stacked more stats with one less game played compared to Wyatt Pedigo, however Pedigo is better attacking behind the line of scrimmage and getting to the quarterback. Both teams are pretty solid at this position.
- Defensive Backs: Hornets. The Hornet secondary has more plays on the ball compared to UND and gives up slightly less yards per game in a conference that throws the ball more.
- Punters: Hornets. Cal McGough has a slightly better average but drops a lot more kicks inside the 20 compared to Luke Silvernale.
- Kickers: Hornets. Zach Schriener has thrice as many makes and kicks than CJ Elrichs.
- Kick Returners: Hawks. Big return averages and 2 kicks to the house says it all.
I’d be surprised if UND doesn’t just come out and ground and pound the Hornet defense. The interior of the Hornet defensive line is giving up over 20 pounds compared to UND’s offensive line. Add in the Hornet injuries and I am just not seeing how the Hornets hold up in the trenches. At the skilled positions, UND has enough talent and balance to keep the Hornets honest so it will be difficult to sell out on the run. Slowing down the Hawks will be a difficult task for the Hornet defense.
On the other side of the ball, it all depends on who Coach Fresques starts at quarterback. Assuming both quarterbacks are healthy enough to play, are the coaches actually serious about winning this game and decide to go with the more talented and versatile Kaiden Bennett, or do they throw away another game to get true freshman Carson Conklin more big game experience? While weather won’t be an issue and Conklin should fare better throwing the ball, I find it a hard sell to be taken seriously as a coaching staff if they go with a true freshman over the more experienced athlete in a playoff game.
On special teams, the Hornets need to clean up the punt coverage and not even risk kicking the ball deep to the UND returners.
Both these teams have similar stories on the season and while the injuries are stacked up for the Hornets, they have been a gritty and resilient bunch. UND will have home field advantage and be the favorites, but I just can’t bring myself to pick against the Hornets in postseason play…not after how far this program has come these past few years. Survive and advance.
Stingers Up!
North Dakota State at North Dakota Highlights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbWSqk5uIBI