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Bracketology

clawman1

Active member
I saw this on http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forumdisplay.php?2-FCS-Discussion
Interesting speculation - https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology
 
clawman said:
I saw this on http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forumdisplay.php?2-FCS-Discussion
Interesting speculation - https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology

re: www.collegesportsmadness.com
EWU or UC Davis will lose this week. whichever way that happens, I don't see a 2 and 5 seed situation for those teams. We can probably get that 5 seed (or higher) but only if we beat UCD in which case there is no way they're a 2. If we lose, we will not be seeded.
 
EdubAlum said:
clawman said:
I saw this on http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forumdisplay.php?2-FCS-Discussion
Interesting speculation - https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology

re: www.collegesportsmadness.com
EWU or UC Davis will lose this week. whichever way that happens, I don't see a 2 and 5 seed situation for those teams. We can probably get that 5 seed (or higher) but only if we beat UCD in which case there is no way they're a 2. If we lose, we will not be seeded.
Agreed
 
We have a shot at a top 4 seed if we win out. We need Weber to lose at ISU next week and we may have a shot at the 2 or 3 seed. Kennesaw losing this week wouldn’t hurt...
 
marceagfan5 said:
We have a shot at a top 4 seed if we win out. We need Weber to lose at ISU next week and we may have a shot at the 2 or 3 seed. Kennesaw losing this week wouldn’t hurt...

This sounds good to me. Not much on predicting how politically motivated asshats on a committee will do anything. Kennesaw is on the road at Monmouth but barring a 3+ TO performance by KSU they should be heavily favored. They do, however, finish the season against Jax St who will be looking to avenge last years playoff loss to Kennesaw.
 
Pulled this off Weber's fan site. Looked accurate.

Standings through games of 11/3

1. UC Davis 6-0
t2. E Wash 5-1
t2. Idaho St 5-1
t2. Weber St 5-1
All other teams eliminated

Games remaining

UC Davis
@ E Wash (5-1)
Sac St (0-6)

E Wash
UC Davis (6-0)
@ Portland St (3-3)

Idaho St
@ Cal Poly (2-4)
Weber St (5-1)

Weber St
@ S Utah (1-5)
@ Idaho St (5-1)

As we know, the conference considers all teams in 1st place as co-champions. E Wash has the most difficult remaining schedule (based on opponent's records), then ISU, then Weber, then Davis. Davis, EWU, and ISU each have 1 home game and 1 road game remaining. Weber has 0 home games and 2 road games remaining.

Tie breakers are only for the Playoff Auto-Bid. They are as follows:

1. Head-to Head Competition (In event of a three or four team tie, the auto bid will be awarded to the team with the best record against the other tied teams, regardless if all have played each other)
Davis plays EWU 11/10, beat ISU, and does not play Weber
EWU plays Davis 11/10, does not play ISU, and lost to Weber
ISU lost to Davis, does not play EWU, and plays Weber 11/17
Weber does not play Davis, plays ISU 11/17, and beat EWU

2. Record Against Common Conference Opponents In Descending Order

3. Record Against Common Non-Conference Opponents

4. Sagarin Rating

5. Coin Flip

Weber needs help to secure the auto bid. They need Davis to lose this Sat at E Wash, something that is very possible. I don't expect Davis to lose to Sac St, so worst we can expect Davis to finish is 7-1. Weber will need to win out to finish 7-1. Weber winning out would eliminate ISU from Championship and Auto-Bid contention. If Weber and EWU win out we will probably have a three way tie between Davis, EWU, and Weber, all at 7-1. In that scenario, Davis would be 0-1 vs the tied teams, EWU would be 1-1 vs the tied teams, and Weber would be 1-0 vs the tied teams, giving Weber the tiebreaker and the Auto-Bid. Go Weber, and Go Eagles this Saturday!
 
As much as it pains me, Montana is not *entirely* eliminated from the playoff conversation. They could still finish 7-4. Even then, it would be tight as they would have four FCS losses; they didn't play a Power 5 team this year.

Their best bet would be hoping Idaho State either loses two or finishes 7-4 and then UM would try to splash the cash to get the fourth bid over Idaho State. Idaho State played a Power 5, a transitional FBS (both on the road), and a D2. It would be a weird comparison, because you'd have Montana at 7-4 against FCS schools, and Idaho State at 6-2 against FCS schools. Based on what we saw last year with Eastern and NAU, the playoff committee seemed to want the new blood in the playoffs. I think that would lead me to believe they'd take Idaho State in that scenario.
 
LDopaPDX said:
As much as it pains me, Montana is not *entirely* eliminated from the playoff conversation. They could still finish 7-4. Even then, it would be tight as they would have four FCS losses; they didn't play a Power 5 team this year.

Their best bet would be hoping Idaho State either loses two or finishes 7-4 and then UM would try to splash the cash to get the fourth bid over Idaho State. Idaho State played a Power 5, a transitional FBS (both on the road), and a D2. It would be a weird comparison, because you'd have Montana at 7-4 against FCS schools, and Idaho State at 6-2 against FCS schools. Based on what we saw last year with Eastern and NAU, the playoff committee seemed to want the new blood in the playoffs. I think that would lead me to believe they'd take Idaho State in that scenario.

As desperate as they are, not even Dennis Washington can buy them into the the playoffs this year.
 
luckyintheorder said:
Interesting update on the Bracketology site... Cat's make it in and Eags, Weber and Davis all get seeded. Awesome.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology

As unbelievable as it is, The Montana/MSU game may be a de facto play-in game. Idaho State is probably in with a win over Weber. The rest of the field just collapsed yesterday and the committee is probably going to take a bunch of 7-4 teams just to fill out the bracket.
 
Eags are a lock for a top-five seed if they win Friday. NDSU is the 1...Then I think it’s a mix of Weber, Eastern, Kennesaw, South Dakota state for the next four. Would be nice if Idaho State beat Weber , or Jacksonville State beat Kennesaw next week. I could see us getting the two seed if both those games happen, probably the 4 if neither one happens…
 
marceagfan5 said:
Eags are a lock for a top-five seed if they win Friday. NDSU is the 1...Then I think it’s a mix of Weber, Eastern, Kennesaw, South Dakota state for the next four. Would be nice if Idaho State beat Weber , or Jacksonville State beat Kennesaw next week. I could see us getting the two seed if both those games happen, probably the 4 if neither one happens…
CAA and MVC (after NDSU) are in a jumble. If Weber goes down to ISU (probably a longshot) Eags get a higher seed. All for that.

Haley breakdown of yesterdays action in the FCS:

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20181110224336462165504
 
Interesting that MSU is now in the playoff discussion if they win next weekend, while UM is not if they do the same.

It’ll be interesting if Eastern, Davis, and Weber all win out. Who gets placed on the NDSU side of the bracket in that scenario given the playoff committee’s penchant for regionalization?
 
I fully expect to get hammered in seeding and brackets. Yes, I'm still pissed.

giphy.gif
 
Just throwing this out there, but I don't think the tiebreaker scenario posted above is correct. The tiebreaker would be wins against other co-champs. In which case both Eastern and Weber would have one, UC Davis zero. My guess is with UC Davis eliminated, they'd finish third and Weber would then have the tiebreaker over Eastern with the head-to-head win. Eastern wouldn't be punished for being the only team that played both other co-champs. That almost seems ridiculous to punish the team that played a tougher schedule.

Also, Eastern couldn't have played worse offensively against Weber. I feel pretty confident Eastern beats Weber if they play again. That game was a comedy of errors we couldn't repeat even if we tried.
 
LDopaPDX said:
Just throwing this out there, but I don't think the tiebreaker scenario posted above is correct. The tiebreaker would be wins against other co-champs. In which case both Eastern and Weber would have one, UC Davis zero. My guess is with UC Davis eliminated, they'd finish third and Weber would then have the tiebreaker over Eastern with the head-to-head win. Eastern wouldn't be punished for being the only team that played both other co-champs. That almost seems ridiculous to punish the team that played a tougher schedule.

Also, Eastern couldn't have played worse offensively against Weber. I feel pretty confident Eastern beats Weber if they play again. That game was a comedy of errors we couldn't repeat even if we tried.

Because Weber may get the Big Sky automatic berth does not mean they are seeded higher than the Eagles. If we win out and so does Weber we could be the three seed and they are 4 or 5.
 
clawman said:
LDopaPDX said:
Just throwing this out there, but I don't think the tiebreaker scenario posted above is correct. The tiebreaker would be wins against other co-champs. In which case both Eastern and Weber would have one, UC Davis zero. My guess is with UC Davis eliminated, they'd finish third and Weber would then have the tiebreaker over Eastern with the head-to-head win. Eastern wouldn't be punished for being the only team that played both other co-champs. That almost seems ridiculous to punish the team that played a tougher schedule.

Also, Eastern couldn't have played worse offensively against Weber. I feel pretty confident Eastern beats Weber if they play again. That game was a comedy of errors we couldn't repeat even if we tried.

Because Weber may get the Big Sky automatic berth does not mean they are seeded higher than the Eagles. If we win out and so does Weber we could be the three seed and they are 4 or 5.

Not a chance that happens. If Weber wins out they’ll be seeded higher...
 
marceagfan5 said:
clawman said:
LDopaPDX said:
Just throwing this out there, but I don't think the tiebreaker scenario posted above is correct. The tiebreaker would be wins against other co-champs. In which case both Eastern and Weber would have one, UC Davis zero. My guess is with UC Davis eliminated, they'd finish third and Weber would then have the tiebreaker over Eastern with the head-to-head win. Eastern wouldn't be punished for being the only team that played both other co-champs. That almost seems ridiculous to punish the team that played a tougher schedule.

Also, Eastern couldn't have played worse offensively against Weber. I feel pretty confident Eastern beats Weber if they play again. That game was a comedy of errors we couldn't repeat even if we tried.

Because Weber may get the Big Sky automatic berth does not mean they are seeded higher than the Eagles. If we win out and so does Weber we could be the three seed and they are 4 or 5.

Not a chance that happens. If Weber wins out they’ll be seeded higher...
What information are you basing your opinion on?
 
clawman said:
marceagfan5 said:
clawman said:
LDopaPDX said:
Just throwing this out there, but I don't think the tiebreaker scenario posted above is correct. The tiebreaker would be wins against other co-champs. In which case both Eastern and Weber would have one, UC Davis zero. My guess is with UC Davis eliminated, they'd finish third and Weber would then have the tiebreaker over Eastern with the head-to-head win. Eastern wouldn't be punished for being the only team that played both other co-champs. That almost seems ridiculous to punish the team that played a tougher schedule.

Also, Eastern couldn't have played worse offensively against Weber. I feel pretty confident Eastern beats Weber if they play again. That game was a comedy of errors we couldn't repeat even if we tried.

Because Weber may get the Big Sky automatic berth does not mean they are seeded higher than the Eagles. If we win out and so does Weber we could be the three seed and they are 4 or 5.

Not a chance that happens. If Weber wins out they’ll be seeded higher...
What information are you basing your opinion on?

I agree with Marc, so I'll try my best to answer. NCAA has long said they prefer head to head games as the primary determinant in choosing rankings. It's why Eastern got seeded 5th and Montana State 4th in 2010 despite every poll of note having Eastern higher.

The one issue that may push Eastern above Weber this year... And I'm arguing against my point... Is that the computer polls don't seem to favor Weber at all. The Pugh poll, not a major poll, has Weber 21st. I'd like to see Eastern steered clear of MVc teams for as long as possible. The record against the MVC is horrific, and both North Dakota State and South Dakota State look strong this year.
 

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