Bracketology

[kalm]

Just throwing this out there, but I don't think the tiebreaker scenario posted above is correct. The tiebreaker would be wins against other co-champs. In which case both Eastern and Weber would have one, UC Davis zero. My guess is with UC Davis eliminated, they'd finish third and Weber would then have the tiebreaker over Eastern with the head-to-head win. Eastern wouldn't be punished for being the only team that played both other co-champs. That almost seems ridiculous to punish the team that played a tougher schedule.

Also, Eastern couldn't have played worse offensively against Weber. I feel pretty confident Eastern beats Weber if they play again. That game was a comedy of errors we couldn't repeat even if we tried.

Because Weber may get the Big Sky automatic berth does not mean they are seeded higher than the Eagles. If we win out and so does Weber we could be the three seed and they are 4 or 5.

Not a chance that happens. If Weber wins out they’ll be seeded higher...

What information are you basing your opinion on?

I agree with Marc, so I'll try my best to answer. NCAA has long said they prefer head to head games as the primary determinant in choosing rankings. It's why Eastern got seeded 5th and Montana State 4th in 2010 despite every poll of note having Eastern higher.

The one issue that may push Eastern above Weber this year... And I'm arguing against my point... Is that the computer polls don't seem to favor Weber at all. The Pugh poll, not a major poll, has Weber 21st. I'd like to see Eastern steered clear of MVc teams for as long as possible. The record against the MVC is horrific, and both North Dakota State and South Dakota State look strong this year.

The committee has made exceptions at least when it comes to at-large selections. In 2016, Albany beat UNH the 2nd to last game of the season, they both finished 7-4 with UNH having a bad loss to a bad Dartmouth that season and Albany an FBS win against Buffalo. UNH gets the nod, Albany stays at home. (Of course conspiracy theories abound regarding UNH).

I'll add to the argument in our favor in that we have no bad losses and Weber's bad loss to NAU negates a close h2h win at home. It also precedes and is inferior to our pounding of Davis. Plus margin of victory. We're rolling everyone in our wins and Weber is winning 26-14 each week.

There are no rules that our hard and fast and they do want to seed the best teams at the end of the season in order.

But yes...it's a push 2017....never forget! :mrgreen:

 

[kalm]

Just throwing this out there, but I don't think the tiebreaker scenario posted above is correct. The tiebreaker would be wins against other co-champs. In which case both Eastern and Weber would have one, UC Davis zero. My guess is with UC Davis eliminated, they'd finish third and Weber would then have the tiebreaker over Eastern with the head-to-head win. Eastern wouldn't be punished for being the only team that played both other co-champs. That almost seems ridiculous to punish the team that played a tougher schedule.

Also, Eastern couldn't have played worse offensively against Weber. I feel pretty confident Eastern beats Weber if they play again. That game was a comedy of errors we couldn't repeat even if we tried.

Because Weber may get the Big Sky automatic berth does not mean they are seeded higher than the Eagles. If we win out and so does Weber we could be the three seed and they are 4 or 5.

Not a chance that happens. If Weber wins out they’ll be seeded higher...

What information are you basing your opinion on?

I agree with Marc, so I'll try my best to answer. NCAA has long said they prefer head to head games as the primary determinant in choosing rankings. It's why Eastern got seeded 5th and Montana State 4th in 2010 despite every poll of note having Eastern higher.

The one issue that may push Eastern above Weber this year... And I'm arguing against my point... Is that the computer polls don't seem to favor Weber at all. The Pugh poll, not a major poll, has Weber 21st. I'd like to see Eastern steered clear of MVc teams for as long as possible. The record against the MVC is horrific, and both North Dakota State and South Dakota State look strong this year.

The committee has made exceptions at least when it comes to at-large selections. In 2016, Albany beat UNH the 2nd to last game of the season, they both finished 7-4 with UNH having a bad loss to a bad Dartmouth that season and Albany an FBS win against Buffalo. UNH gets the nod, Albany stays at home. (Of course conspiracy theories abound regarding UNH).

I'll add to the argument in our favor in that we have no bad losses and Weber's bad loss to NAU negates a close h2h win at home against us. It also precedes and is inferior to our pounding of Davis. Plus margin of victory. We're rolling everyone in our wins and Weber is winning 26-14 each week.

There are no selection rules that are hard and fast and they do want to seed the best teams at the end of the season in order.

But yes...it's a push....and 2017....never forget! :mrgreen:

 

[marceagfan5]

Just throwing this out there, but I don't think the tiebreaker scenario posted above is correct. The tiebreaker would be wins against other co-champs. In which case both Eastern and Weber would have one, UC Davis zero. My guess is with UC Davis eliminated, they'd finish third and Weber would then have the tiebreaker over Eastern with the head-to-head win. Eastern wouldn't be punished for being the only team that played both other co-champs. That almost seems ridiculous to punish the team that played a tougher schedule.

Also, Eastern couldn't have played worse offensively against Weber. I feel pretty confident Eastern beats Weber if they play again. That game was a comedy of errors we couldn't repeat even if we tried.

Because Weber may get the Big Sky automatic berth does not mean they are seeded higher than the Eagles. If we win out and so does Weber we could be the three seed and they are 4 or 5.

Not a chance that happens. If Weber wins out they’ll be seeded higher...

What information are you basing your opinion on?

Because it happens every year

Best example for us is 2012. We finish 9-2, Montana State finishes 10-1. We get the 2 seed, MSU gets the 3 because of our head to head win...

Central Arkansas/Sam Houston same thing two years ago. Happens all the time...

 

[clawman1]

There are no selection rules that are hard and fast and they do want to seed the best teams at the end of the season in order.

But yes...it's a push....and 2017....never forget! :mrgreen:

kalm;
As you said there are not hard and fast rules and the make up of the committee is changing year to year, is past precedent considered or just the feeling of the committee members ?
Does the Big Sky have an AD as a member of the committee? If so who is that?

 

[sammamisheag]

I like EWU's chances on the road against anyone other than NDSU. Whoever gets the #4,#5 or #8 seeds will have to travel to Fargo at some point.

If you compare common opponents between Weber & Id State (4 games) they were even in point differential until CalPoly beat Id State by 23.

But, Id state is undefeated at home this year.

It possible, EWU could end up w the #2 seed is Jack State beats Kennesaw St and Id State beats Weber. It would then come down to South Dak State vs EWU for the #2 seed.

Love this time of year!

 

[tomq04]

Ideal state is for ewu and Weber to get #2,#3. Sets up the ewu/ndsu year 3 show down.

 

[marceagfan5]

I like EWU's chances on the road against anyone other than NDSU. Whoever gets the #4,#5 or #8 seeds will have to travel to Fargo at some point.

If you compare common opponents between Weber & Id State (4 games) they were even in point differential until CalPoly beat Id State by 23.

But, Id state is undefeated at home this year.

It possible, EWU could end up w the #2 seed is Jack State beats Kennesaw St and Id State beats Weber. It would then come down to South Dak State vs EWU for the #2 seed.

Love this time of year!

I think we move up to the two or three seed if Kennesaw or weber lose on Saturday and we win.I don’t think South Dakota State will jump ahead of us, they will only have eight wins, because their FBS game was canceled midway through the first quarter. They were going to lose that one and that would’ve given them three losses, I don’t think they can get a bump up because the game canceled.

 

[MLEagle]

Ideal state is for ewu and Weber to get #2,#3. Sets up the ewu/ndsu year 3 show down.

I agreed with this as well. Despite the loss at Weber earlier this year, I feel very comfortable with going there and winning in the semifinals. I think it is more likely Jacksonville St wins this week than Idaho St.

 

[eaglesfootball]

We need Kennesaw and/or Weber to lose this weekend or we’re in Fargo for the semi’s should we make it that far.

 

[luckyintheorder]

Hero sports last speculation before the last games of the season. Can the Salukis take down mighty NDSU this week and really stir the pot? Massey gives them a 1% chance, ... so there's a chance. :lol:

Someone already said it, far more likely Kennesaw goes down to Jax St. They are playing on a "neutral field" at SunTrust baseball stadium about 10 miles from Kennesaw State campus. Hate football on a baseball field. Kennesaw did lose to Georgia State to open season on that field. Should be a close one barring TO's. Ben-gals host Weber is another potential close one. Tanner isn't that accurate but ISU's OL has been pretty good this season and may keep him off his back long enough to connect with brother Mitch and open a few holes for the running game. Expect a close one there too.

https://herosports.com/fcs/football...-ndsu-bzbz?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Link

 

[EWURanger]

We need Kennesaw and/or Weber to lose this weekend or we’re in Fargo for the semi’s should we make it that far.

Please make it so! We need that home field advantage through the playoffs.

 

[clawman1]

We need Kennesaw and/or Weber to lose this weekend or we’re in Fargo for the semi’s should we make it that far.

Yes,we do!
https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?s0=300937&oid0=2383&h=0&s1=300937&oid1=5545

 

[Seattle Eagle]

We need Kennesaw and/or Weber to lose this weekend or we’re in Fargo for the semi’s should we make it that far.

I think this is the only way we sniff the 2-3 seeds.

 

[clawman1]

If ISU and MSU both win who is in? ISU beat the 'cats.

 

[Atomic Eagle]

If ISU and MSU both win who is in? ISU beat the 'cats.

ISU no doubt.

 

[luckyintheorder]

this is what Bracketology makes me feel like... gotta listen for at least 20 secs. Come out and play..

[media]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeEbtiruH2Q[/media]

 

[scottywashere11]

Does the Big Sky have an AD as a member of the committee? If so who is that?

The 2018 FCS Selection Committee:
Brad Teague, Central Arkansas - Southland Conference (Chair)
Thorr Bjorn, Rhode Island – Colonial Athletic Conference
Randy Eaton, Western Carolina – Southern Conference
Kent Haslam, Montana – Big Sky Conference
Kyle Moats, Missouri State – Missouri Valley Football Conference
Tim Murray, Marist – Pioneer Football League
Robert Roller, Campbell – Big South Conference
Greg Seitz, Jacksonville State – Ohio Valley Conference
Bill Smith, Bryant – Northeast Conference
Jermaine Truax, Bucknell – Patriot League

 

[LDopaPDX]

Dumb question, but a simple searche didn't yield any results. Does anyone know what the committee rankings look like at this point?

Coaches have us #3 and Stats has us #4, but where do the people that matter have us? Safe to say, most of the time the committee hates us as evidenced by our playoff snub last year.

 

[LDopaPDX]

Dumb question, but a simple searche didn't yield any results. Does anyone know what the committee rankings look like at this point?

Coaches have us #3 and Stats has us #4, but where do the people that matter have us? Safe to say, most of the time the committee hates us as evidenced by our playoff snub last year.

Nevermind, a little more searching showed that the committee only ranks teams one time after week 8. Therefore, we were #9 two weeks ago but have since won two games and beat the committee's #3 team.

 

[LDopaPDX]

Here's what I learned when I should have been working:

When the committee released their poll two weeks ago, we were #9. Since that time, four of the teams in front of us have lost (James Madison, UC Davis, Elon, and Wofford). If we didn't leapfrog anyone, that'd mean we're #5. Given a win over the #3 team, we very well may have leaped over SDSU or *possibly, but unlikely* Weber State. Our last two wins are better than anyone behind us, so it would seem very unlikely anyone caught us from behind in the last two games. Therefore, at this moment, we'd be a high of 3 and a low of 5, but probably 4.

We really need Weber to lose most this week coupled with a win over Portland State. That would probably ensure a 3... Although it is possible SDSU would stay in front of us, knocking us to 4. Jacksonville State beating Kennesaw may be a double-edged sword in that Jax St could win, but also then leapfrog us.

Now all that said, Eastern just needs to clobber Portland State on Friday and watch it play out Saturday.