Stick with what works when predicting McNeese season (8/27)
http://www.americanpress.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1559&Itemid=96
By GARY LANEY AMERICAN PRESS
This job has gotten more complicated over the years.
Every year, I reserve the Sunday afternoon before the season opener to review what I saw in McNeese State's August camp, pour over reports from opposing camps and boldly project the Cowboys' season results.
After hours of deliberation, scientific data cross-referencing, and review by both an audit board and a scholarly panel of my peers, the results would be published for your consumption.
But that's a lie.
Truth be told, the Sunday before the opener every year, I'd write a column predicting McNeese would go 9-2 and be in the field of 16 in the Division I-AA playoffs.
It was always a no-brainer.
This is McNeese we're talking about. The Cowboys are supposed to make the playoffs. They are supposed to win eight games on an off year, 10 or 11 on a good year.
It was easy, something you can pound out on the keyboard and be done in time for Sunday brunch. Say nine wins. Take the criticism for "bad-mouthing" them by saying they might possibly lose twice. But be safe from being called a homer, because if you pick them at 10-1, well, the critics will say you're just pumping up your team.
Nine and two. It sounded just right. I'd file it away and pull it out the last weekend of each August, dress it up with some justifications until the column was done, then file it away again until the next year (the irony is, since I became the beat writer in the 1998 season, McNeese has finished 9-2 just once).
But these last three seasons have changed things.
Even after a Southland Conference championship run last season, the Cowboys are a mere 16-16 with one playoff game in the last three seasons. Once a program that was slotted on most postseason projections before the season even started, McNeese now gets looked at with a healthy dose of skepticism.
In the last few years, McNeese has seen teams, and I'm not talking about BCS teams, put up 50 points. In the last few years, the Cowboys have seen a midseason coaching change. They've seen Nicholls State — Nicholls State! — celebrate a conference championship after beating the Cowboys. And they've seen Texas State — Texas State! — beat them three years in a row.
So the days of calling for a 9-2 season without giving it a second thought are over.
Now, the research I acted like I was doing in years past is a necessity. Fortunately, in the YouTube era, I can not only read up on McNeese's opposition, I can actually watch them.
So there I was late Saturday and Sunday morning, reading Ian Ruder's Portland State blog on OregonLive.com and the Advertiser's Dan McDonald's accounts from Louisiana-Lafayette (or should I say, University of Louisiana, as the Advertiser calls it) training camp.
I have created an account on anygivensaturday.com, a message board for fans of the FCS to find out who's being arrested at Texas State (a wide receiver named Alex Darley over the weekend) and who's getting transfers (Sam Houston State, but what's new about that?).
I reviewed interviews from the Southland Conference media days, which is now streamed online as the conference attempts to offset the lack of actual TV coverage, since Fox SportsNet seems more interested in broadcasting high school games these days.
I put all that data in front of me and took into account McNeese's three preseason all-Americans and about 17 returning starters from a team that was fitted for SLC rings.
I poured it together, cross-referenced it, had it all audited and professionally reviewed. And I came up with ...
9-2.