I think it's a combination of recruiting and approach that has made this such a difficult season for Idaho State. There is no question the team lacks talent in specific areas -- in particular the ability to shoot the three. They also lack the ability to defend the three -- Idaho State is ninth in the league in three-point defense (42 percent).
Some of this is athletic ability, or lack thereof. Some is defensive approach. There is no question, in today's game with its reliance on three-point shooting, that you have to have the flexibility to play a number of different defenses, including man to man, in particular when you're playing a team that's "in a zone" from three. ISU occasionally switched to man, or a box in one vs. MSU, but if you're not committed to practicing and playing man over the course of a season, you're probably not going to be overly successful playing it when you jump into it out of desperation. We saw a lot of desperation "man" on the part of the Bengals this year.
There's no question free throw shooting killed the Bengals this season. There were so many close games that could have been decided differently had ISU shot 75 percent in those games. Bill Evans is fond of saying, "if you want a team that can rebound, you have to recruit a rebounder." Ergo, if you want decent free throw shooters, you have to recruit players who have demonstrated they are good foul shooters. You're not always going to find good FT shooters, of course, especially when you're looking for big men who can block shots and rebound, for example. But when you recruit a LOT of guys who have demonstrated they are lacking at the foul line, you're going to shoot 69 percent like the ISU team did this year in conference.
Percentage-wise, ISU wasn't a bad three-point shooting team -- they are third in conference only play at 42 percent, but they were last in 3s per game (4.9) because, other than Chris Hansen, nobody else was much good at it, and the guys who couldn't shoot the 3 listened to Evans and didn't take them. (Ben Wilson may set a record this year for the fewest three-point attempts by a starting PG -- he's only tried 3 all season).
So what does next year look like? The only experienced players who will be returning are Wilson, Evan Hall, Marcus Bradley, and Geno Luzcando. Wilson actually put together a decent season, albeit an unconventional one for a PG. He shot a respectable 43 percent from the floor (and improved in league play), had a decent 95 to 55 assist to turnover ratio, averaged 7 points and 3.4 rebounds, and had 33 steals. He got progressively more productive as the year went on, and while he won't meet the definition of a traditional PG, he'll likely be a positive part of the club next year.
The other returners with significant experience are coming off very difficult seasons. Hall regressed from a positive sophomore season, with his shooting numbers falling across the board. Bradley started out well, but saw his playing time drop as the season went on. That was likely related to the very one-dimensional nature of his offensive game -- he's a shooter who averaged only 2 rebounds a game, and has a total of 4 assists (vs. 16 turnovers). He looks like he has the ability to be a decent Big Sky conference player next year, but he's going to have to expand his game significantly and become much more consistent.
Luzcando has a lot of obvious athletic ability, and his 18-point night against Montana Thursday night gives a glimpse into his offensive potential, but he has a lot of work to do on his shot. He's shooting 37 percent from the field, 30 from 3 and 52 from the foul line, none of which are acceptable numbers for a starter.
There are two "role players" scheduled to come back next year -- Andre Slavik, who struggled to contribute (he took only 12 shots and had only 20 rebounds in 21 games); and Eric Nakken, who is basically a three-point shooting specialist right now.
The three players who redshirted this year are Justin Smith, who shot only 30 percent from the floor and had 8 turnovers vs. 0 assists as a freshman; Novak Topalovic, the 7 footer who averaged less than 3 points a game while playing minimal minutes as a senior in high school; and Spencer Nicolds, a 6-7 small forward who averaged 11 points and 5.5 rebounds as a senior in high school. All three have decent athletic ability -- can run and jump -- but only Smith has put up significant offensive numbers in high school, and Smith is the only one I would expect to approach double figures in scoring next year. The Bengal coaching staff has to hope that Smith's redshirt experience pays the same dividends as Nnamdi Ezenwa's did this year.
As far as newcomers are concerned, Ali Faruqbey, the 6-2 guard who averaged 16 ppg and shot 38 percent from three as a freshman at Arizona Western, is the most likely to get a starting opportunity next season. Faruqbey was injured earlier this season and hasn't appeared in any games so far at Arizona Western, so he'll likely arrive as a sophomore in eligibility.
Gary Chivichyan, a 6-5 prep schooler from California, has verbally committed to Idaho State. If he signs and arrives in Pocatello, I would expect to see him get every opportunity to earn playing time as a designated marksmen. He's had several big games this year, including at least one when he drained 8 threes, and while it's difficult to tell what kind of competition he's playing against, his video shows what appears to be a smooth, productive shooter. He'll have to learn to play defense and fit in with his new coach's style (need we remind folks of the last California guard recruited here?) -- and most importantly, the coaching staff needs to make sure he follows through on his commitment and signs here.
I'm assuming Clark Wilkinson, the 6-6 forward from Highland High School, will return from his mission this fall and join the ISU roster, and I would assume the Bengals will redshirt him if at all possible. That would leave two open scholarships to fill this spring. ISU has offered several junior college players in the last month (see the several threads on this site). We're also seeing Bill Evans and his staff at several local high school games in recent weeks, which may indicate some interest in a few of the local kids at places like Century and Bonneville, if the junior college talent search fails to pay off once again this spring.
In summary, for ISU to have a season stimulating enough to reverse the significant decline in attendance a couple of things are going to have to happen: experienced players like Hall, Bradley, Wilson, Smith and Luzcando are going to have to take significant steps forward in production next year; Faruqbey, Chivichyan and the other two recruits coming in next year are going to have to be major contributors immediately; and young players like Topalovic and Nicolds are going to have to demonstrate enough potential to get people excited about what's to come. None of that is impossible, but
it's highly unlikely that all of it will come to pass in one season. I'd be pleased to see some of it.
. Hansen, Solarin and Sanchez type kids are good enough to play here.