Prediction Thread ISU 53 @ EWU 56 Eags WIN!

[kalm]

IF our defense can get some early stops then I don't see this game being the kind of shootout that some are predicting. D gets some stops, and we should be able to put some points on them and then run the ball and wear them down in the second half. Even though that might be a big IF at this point, I saw some good things out of the D on Saturday that I hope they can build off of. If we can't get some early stops, then yes, it's going to be one of those 54-45 type games that we honestly don't really want to get into against a team like Idaho State.

My prediction is 38-27 Eagles.

Arias is a fifth year senior who will earn his masters this month. He's smart, experienced, and can bring them back from a deficit. We'll need to play 4 quarters.

 

[Seattle Eagle]

EWU 45 ISU 31

 

[Rjones61]

Idaho State comes fresh off a great win off of Sacramento State. We have a target on our backs and we have to realize that every team is going to show up at our house hungry and playing with a lot of heart.

You can call Idaho State a prototypical Big Sky stereotype. Focusing on putting points on the board and outscoring their opponent, ISU together a positive upturn for their program. They average 483.5 yards per game. A solid number for playing against two FBS opponents. What is less impressive is their 29.2 average score against opponents. Their quarterback is NOT a mobile one. As a matter of fact, he is on the negative for rushing yards. I think our defense is not as good as the FBS opponents ISU has faced, but better than Chadron State and SAC. So, picking a score which hovers between the performances of those two subgroups is logical. I will choose a number close to their average, 30 points for ISU.

ISU averages 470 yards defensively on less potent offenses than we have faced. We will put up 600+ yards on this team and even after we substitute our second string, we will continue to score. I would be surprised if we have to punt it away all game. What can serve to bite us in the ass is what bit SAC in the ass. SAC put up over 500 yards on offense, but only 24 points. Why? They lost they turned over the ball three times. We haven't been too hot in turnovers this season. ISU has done a decent job taking care of the ball. Turnovers are ISUs best opportunity to stay in this game. However, I think we still break 50.

Final Prediction: 54-30 EWU

 

[EWURanger]

So, picking a score which hovers between the performances of those two subgroups is logical. I will choose a number close to their average, 30 points for ISU.

 

[56n92]

"EWU has a lot of inflated numbers due to their easier schedule"

I'm still trying to figure out where this notion comes from??? hno: Two top 15 FCS schools and a solid PAC 12 school is easy? Or easier? Than what??? :wall: Seriously....... Thanks to UNC, ISU is no longer the biggest BSC embarrassment but they certainly aren't anything to be proud of :loser:. ISU might be better than last year but they are still like an EWU JV squad.

 

[bengalsapper1]

"EWU has a lot of inflated numbers due to their easier schedule"

I'm still trying to figure out where this notion comes from??? hno: Two top 15 FCS schools and a solid PAC 12 school is easy? Or easier? Than what??? :wall: Seriously....... Thanks to UNC, ISU is no longer the biggest BSC embarrassment but they certainly aren't anything to be proud of :loser:. ISU might be better than last year but they are still like an EWU JV squad.

EWU has a strength of schedule of 99 that is games up to this point. ISU has a rating of 45.
Sam Houston State lost to a D2 school
Montana Western that's a powerhouse
Washington decent Pac 12 school
MSU good school game was a shootout showed a lack of defense makes me think that Washington is a little bit better than MSU.
UCD not bad middle of the BSC

If you think that EWU has a tough schedule you are wrong. This not according to me but according to the sagarin ratings. If EWU did not have good numbers I would wonder. THe number I would worry about is the 17 sacks your O line gave up with the teams you played, that makes me think your O line is not that good. ISU shut down Chuckie Keeton at Utah State and was able to sack him. I hope EWU has a better O line than USU. :twocents: :twocents:

 

[Screamin_Eagle174]

"EWU has a lot of inflated numbers due to their easier schedule"

I'm still trying to figure out where this notion comes from??? hno: Two top 15 FCS schools and a solid PAC 12 school is easy? Or easier? Than what??? :wall: Seriously....... Thanks to UNC, ISU is no longer the biggest BSC embarrassment but they certainly aren't anything to be proud of :loser:. ISU might be better than last year but they are still like an EWU JV squad.

EWU has a strength of schedule of 99 that is games up to this point. ISU has a rating of 45.
Sam Houston State lost to a D2 school
Montana Western that's a powerhouse
Washington decent Pac 12 school
MSU good school game was a shootout showed a lack of defense makes me think that Washington is a little bit better than MSU.
UCD not bad middle of the BSC

If you think that EWU has a tough schedule you are wrong. This not according to me but according to the sagarin ratings. If EWU did not have good numbers I would wonder. THe number I would worry about is the 17 sacks your O line gave up with the teams you played, that makes me think your O line is not that good. ISU shut down Chuckie Keeton at Utah State and was able to sack him. I hope EWU has a better O line than USU. :twocents: :twocents:

ISU has two wins against two pretty bad teams, one of which was by only 5 points... to a D-II. ISU has two blowout losses against their two FBS opponents, both of which are worse than a UW team that scraped by us. MSU and SHSU are light years ahead of Sac State and Chadron State (this isn't 2006). Regardless, you're kidding yourself if you think Sagarin's rating of the two teams' schedules thus far means jack in relation to this game, or that EWU's offensive numbers are inflated because of it.

It's nice ISU got a conference win outside of UNC, but please try to remain grounded in reality.

 

[Rjones61]

EWU has a strength of schedule of 99 that is games up to this point. ISU has a rating of 45.
Sam Houston State lost to a D2 school
Montana Western that's a powerhouse
Washington decent Pac 12 school
MSU good school game was a shootout showed a lack of defense makes me think that Washington is a little bit better than MSU.
UCD not bad middle of the BSC

If you think that EWU has a tough schedule you are wrong. This not according to me but according to the sagarin ratings. If EWU did not have good numbers I would wonder. THe number I would worry about is the 17 sacks your O line gave up with the teams you played, that makes me think your O line is not that good. ISU shut down Chuckie Keeton at Utah State and was able to sack him. I hope EWU has a better O line than USU. :twocents: :twocents:

Since when does having a hard schedule make you a good team? Especially when, for the most part, you have gotten your asses kicked by the only decent opponents? You've also gotten whooped by about every bad team you've come across the last four years.

 

[Rjones61]

So, picking a score which hovers between the performances of those two subgroups is logical. I will choose a number close to their average, 30 points for ISU.

This deserved a good chuckle :lol:

 

[marceagfan5]

"EWU has a lot of inflated numbers due to their easier schedule"

I'm still trying to figure out where this notion comes from??? hno: Two top 15 FCS schools and a solid PAC 12 school is easy? Or easier? Than what??? :wall: Seriously....... Thanks to UNC, ISU is no longer the biggest BSC embarrassment but they certainly aren't anything to be proud of :loser:. ISU might be better than last year but they are still like an EWU JV squad.

EWU has a strength of schedule of 99 that is games up to this point. ISU has a rating of 45.
Sam Houston State lost to a D2 school
Montana Western that's a powerhouse
Washington decent Pac 12 school
MSU good school game was a shootout showed a lack of defense makes me think that Washington is a little bit better than MSU.
UCD not bad middle of the BSC

If you think that EWU has a tough schedule you are wrong. This not according to me but according to the sagarin ratings. If EWU did not have good numbers I would wonder. THe number I would worry about is the 17 sacks your O line gave up with the teams you played, that makes me think your O line is not that good. ISU shut down Chuckie Keeton at Utah State and was able to sack him. I hope EWU has a better O line than USU. :twocents: :twocents:

hno:

Davis has a strength of schedule ranked #9, a lot of good that did them. Congrats ISU went and had their a$$ handed to them in 2 FBS games and now have a top 50 strength of schedule, awesome!

Also, your two wins came against teams with a ranking of 201 (sac) and NR (Chadron). We can play this game all day long...

You are in for an ugly awakening come Saturday my friend, this game won't be pretty...

 

[56n92]

"EWU has a lot of inflated numbers due to their easier schedule"

I'm still trying to figure out where this notion comes from??? hno: Two top 15 FCS schools and a solid PAC 12 school is easy? Or easier? Than what??? :wall: Seriously....... Thanks to UNC, ISU is no longer the biggest BSC embarrassment but they certainly aren't anything to be proud of :loser:. ISU might be better than last year but they are still like an EWU JV squad.

EWU has a strength of schedule of 99 that is games up to this point. ISU has a rating of 45.
Sam Houston State lost to a D2 school
Montana Western that's a powerhouse
Washington decent Pac 12 school
MSU good school game was a shootout showed a lack of defense makes me think that Washington is a little bit better than MSU.
UCD not bad middle of the BSC

If you think that EWU has a tough schedule you are wrong. This not according to me but according to the sagarin ratings. If EWU did not have good numbers I would wonder. THe number I would worry about is the 17 sacks your O line gave up with the teams you played, that makes me think your O line is not that good. ISU shut down Chuckie Keeton at Utah State and was able to sack him. I hope EWU has a better O line than USU. :twocents: :twocents:

Using your logic you should play Alabama, Oklahoma and Oregon because then you would have a really strong schedule and therefore be able to beat every other team in the country even though you lost by 90 in each of those games.... Got it. In your Same logic MSU is a Rose Bowl contender.... Got it! Your defense must be bad ass to shut down the perennial USU powerhouse with their NFL caliber offensive line. Got it. Maybe that is the kind of logic taught in Pocotello but up here we call that closing time at the bar.

 

[kalm]

I wonder if Sagarin's SOS rankings are as shitty early in the season as his regular rankings?

Does Sagarin's SOS account for home and away?

 

[EWURanger]

I wonder if Sagarin's SOS rankings are as shitty early in the season as his regular rankings?

Does Sagarin's SOS account for home and away?

Using computer models like Sagarin and Massey for FCS is kind of a joke. The problem, especially with Sagarin, is that they are heavily based on SOS. An FCS team that plays 2 FBS teams will have an artificially inflated power ranking, even if they got their asses handed to them in both games.

 

[56n92]

now I'm trying to figure out how giving up 40 to USU is shutting them down.

 

[Screamin_Eagle174]

now I'm trying to figure out how giving up 40 to USU is shutting them down.

Maybe he meant shutting down their backups once the game was well in hand? :lol:

 

[overthehill]

It’s fun to read the EWU blog – it’s very entertaining and you guys have a right to be proud of a team that has proven that they’re winners and can complete with every team they line up against. It has been fun watching the Eagles complete, and win, against the best competition in the FCS. Congratulations on a great team.

The Bengals aren’t there yet, and maybe not even close, but I will say that this season there has been room for hope. You all point out, quite accurately, that the Bengals were blown out by Utah and Utah State and that the game with Chadron was much closer than it should have been. Those points are hard to argue. I will tell you that in all 3 of those games the Bengals gave up some very “cheap” touchdowns and in the case of the Utah and Utah State games the score was much more lopsided than the games were. Offensively and defensively the Bengals competed pretty well with both the FBS teams they played – special teams is another story!!

The bottom line is that the Bengals need to learn how to win. Good teams, like the Eagles, have established themselves as a winning program and they know they will complete in, and have a chance to win, every game they play. Once the current roster of Bengals figures that out, they will be a very competitive team. I hope that happens this weekend, if it does, I think it will be a very entertaining ball game, if it doesn’t, then it will be another easy Eagle win.

Here’s hoping for a great game! Go Bengals!

Bengals Win - 42-38

 

[marceagfan5]

Eastern is opening as 26 point favorites with and over/under of 78, so odds makers think the game will be something like 52-26 EWU

 

[LDopaPDX]

I wonder if Sagarin's SOS rankings are as shitty early in the season as his regular rankings?

Does Sagarin's SOS account for home and away?

Actually, I think Sagarin's ratings are generally the most accurate. However, since they are entirely based on computer logarithms, they don't have much merit until the sample size (enough games have been played) gets to the point where the comparisons make sense.

Let's see where things stack up in another month. At that point, those models will be much more accurate.

 

[kalm]

I wonder if Sagarin's SOS rankings are as shitty early in the season as his regular rankings?

Does Sagarin's SOS account for home and away?

Actually, I think Sagarin's ratings are generally the most accurate. However, since they are entirely based on computer logarithms, they don't have much merit until the sample size (enough games have been played) gets to the point where the comparisons make sense.

Let's see where things stack up in another month. At that point, those models will be much more accurate.

These were rhetorical questions. But thanks anyway. :mrgreen:

 

[GoldenEagle]

I wonder if Sagarin's SOS rankings are as shitty early in the season as his regular rankings?

Does Sagarin's SOS account for home and away?

Actually, I think Sagarin's ratings are generally the most accurate. However, since they are entirely based on computer logarithms, they don't have much merit until the sample size (enough games have been played) gets to the point where the comparisons make sense.

Let's see where things stack up in another month. At that point, those models will be much more accurate.

algorithms

But yes, sample size is very important in the Sagarin system.