I wont even attempt to try and talk about the women's basketball side of things since I have watched very little. I'm happy for those ladies though, seems like Coach White has built a solid foundation there and it seems very legitimate for them to come out of this thing as conference winners.
As for the men's match-up, I think this is about as even as a game as you are going to find. The first game, here in Greeley, was a maddening one to watch. UNC had no business losing that game. They were in control and even had the lead for probably 38 minutes or so. Looking back through the stats, they had an 8-point lead with 7 minutes remaining, from that point on they went 2-8 from the field with 5 turnovers, a porous way to close out the game. Give Montana State credit, they stepped up defensively and hit the big shots down the stretch. That game happened back in early January and I'd like to think that this Bears team has made significant leaps and bounds here in the last two months.
I think the game in Bozeman really jump-started this end-of-season rally to qualify for this Conference Tournament. The Bears came in 4-9 and it looked on the verge of being a lost year. UNC went on a 16-5 run in the last 4:00 minutes of the first half to go up eleven and you could argue they haven't looked back since (with the exception of the North Dakota game).
I compared the two box scores of these games and the one major difference I found was the disparity in Svihovec's numbers. In the loss in Greeley, he went 1-3 from the field for 7 points, 2 assists and 3 turnovers (he also appeared to be in foul trouble). In the victory in Bozeman, he scored 23 points on 9-11 shooting with 3 assists and 3 turnovers. If you're looking for an x-factor in this game, you probably don't need to look much farther than him. If he is playing aggressive and getting into the lane it opens up good looks for some of the other players, he has also proven he can score in various ways.. but if his shot isn't falling, he needs to learn how to impact the game in other ways. When he plays tentative, the offense looks stagnant and it looks like they just throw up contested shots and hope that Barden is able to get a put-back off the glass.