The PAC/MWC Dominoes Begin to Fall

[Kadeezy]

Listening to Carmichael Dave this morning and he made a good point. People of influence and the politicians involved would not use their political capital on this Sac-12 deal unless there had been some conversations with PAC-12 previously.

Those numbers released by the Sac-12 were specific and not a guess. Pretty sure they were given the minimum requirements to be considered.

Releasing renderings of the stadium and arena is a way to stoke the flames a little more. I'm pretty sure they already have tentative ones.

Agree, they need to keep a steady stream of new information and progress available to the masses to keep us interested. Andy Fiske keeps eluding to being very close to a huge announcement on X.

DO IT. You can start getting my money NOW if I see what I need to see... I'll put $1,000 down day one to get in on the ground floor.

 

[Green Cookie Monster]

I'll put $1,000 down day one to get in on the ground floor.

Think you left off a few 000's?

 

[Kadeezy]

Think you left off a few 000's?

Hahaha, small fish over here. But if you get 1,000 of me willing to give that as a recurring gift, that's $1,000,000 a year from the small fish!

 

[the Rat]

Excerpt from USA Today reporter Dan Wolken's article posted this late afternoon. ​

Heat is on Mountain West​

Formed in 1998 when a group of schools broke off from the Western Athletic Conference, the Mountain West now faces an existential threat under similar circumstances a quarter of a century later.

Within the Mountain West, there was a belief that they would ultimately absorb Washington State and Oregon State, who did not have anywhere else to go as the Pac-12 dissolved. But when those schools could not come to a long-term scheduling agreement with the Mountain West, they managed to lure Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State into the unknown with a promise that they’ll do much better than their $5 million distribution from the Mountain West, and a belief that they won’t have to pay the full boat on their exit from a destabilized, crumbling conference.

Indeed, the heat has now shifted to Mountain West commissioner Gloria Nevarez, whose league could be down to six if Air Force jumps to the AAC and UNLV eventually lands in the Pac-12, which seems likely once it gets in-state political clearance to change conferences without being tied at the hip to Nevada.

In a sane landscape, some people with ties to the Group of Five would like to see the Mountain West remnants come to the negotiating table and perhaps merge with one of the other leagues. But given the egos and self-preservation instincts that drive many of these decisions, the more likely path is that the Mountain West tries to add some regionally congruent schools from C-USA like New Mexico State and UTEP (they have not yet been contacted by the Mountain West, per people with knowledge).

 

[Kadeezy]

Excerpt from USA Today reporter Dan Wolken's article posted this late afternoon. ​

Heat is on Mountain West​

Formed in 1998 when a group of schools broke off from the Western Athletic Conference, the Mountain West now faces an existential threat under similar circumstances a quarter of a century later.

Within the Mountain West, there was a belief that they would ultimately absorb Washington State and Oregon State, who did not have anywhere else to go as the Pac-12 dissolved. But when those schools could not come to a long-term scheduling agreement with the Mountain West, they managed to lure Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State into the unknown with a promise that they’ll do much better than their $5 million distribution from the Mountain West, and a belief that they won’t have to pay the full boat on their exit from a destabilized, crumbling conference.

Indeed, the heat has now shifted to Mountain West commissioner Gloria Nevarez, whose league could be down to six if Air Force jumps to the AAC and UNLV eventually lands in the Pac-12, which seems likely once it gets in-state political clearance to change conferences without being tied at the hip to Nevada.

In a sane landscape, some people with ties to the Group of Five would like to see the Mountain West remnants come to the negotiating table and perhaps merge with one of the other leagues. But given the egos and self-preservation instincts that drive many of these decisions, the more likely path is that the Mountain West tries to add some regionally congruent schools from C-USA like New Mexico State and UTEP (they have not yet been contacted by the Mountain West, per people with knowledge).

The best possible MWC if AF, UNLV and Nevada leave...

(OLD)
Hawaii
Utah State
New Mexico
Wyoming
San Jose State

(NEW)
Sac State
Montana
Montana State
North Dakota State
South Dakota State

The Dream Pac-10/12 if we are somehow pulling strings to make this happen?

Oregon State
Washington State
Fresno State
Sacramento State
UNLV
Nevada
Colorado State
Boise State
Cal
Stanford
+
SMU
Tulane

 

[Kadeezy]

 

[HeavyistheClown]

 

[Hornet25]

The best possible MWC if AF, UNLV and Nevada leave...

(OLD)
Hawaii
Utah State
New Mexico
Wyoming
San Jose State

(NEW)
Sac State
Montana
Montana State
North Dakota State
South Dakota State

The Dream Pac-10/12 if we are somehow pulling strings to make this happen?

Oregon State
Washington State
Fresno State
Sacramento State
UNLV
Nevada
Colorado State
Boise State
Cal
Stanford
+
SMU
Tulane

Strategically speaking, the Pac-12 is the conference you ask to join and the MW is the conference you wait for them to ask you.

Politically speaking, the PAC-12 lost UCLA, USC, Stanford and CAL from California. State can profit by adding as many California schools to the PAC-12 as possible. Probably why I believe I've counted 3-4 state level politicians involved in Sac States push. Being a government town, gotta use your best asset.

 

[SDHornet]

Strategically speaking, the Pac-12 is the conference you ask to join and the MW is the conference you wait for them to ask you.

Politically speaking, the PAC-12 lost UCLA, USC, Stanford and CAL from California. State can profit by adding as many California schools to the PAC-12 as possible. Probably why I believe I've counted 3-4 state level politicians involved in Sac States push. Being a government town, gotta use your best asset.

That's not how this works. Sac State admin has to be proactive in getting an invite, ain't nothing going to be dropped on their doorstep. At a certain point, Sac State is going to have to get a hard "no" from the Pac and then go all in on a MW invite. Aiming for a Pac invite and hoping the MW begs us to join isn't the play.

 

[SDHornet]

The best possible MWC if AF, UNLV and Nevada leave...

(OLD)
Hawaii
Utah State
New Mexico
Wyoming
San Jose State

(NEW)
Sac State
Montana
Montana State
North Dakota State
South Dakota State

The Dream Pac-10/12 if we are somehow pulling strings to make this happen?

Oregon State
Washington State
Fresno State
Sacramento State
UNLV
Nevada
Colorado State
Boise State
Cal
Stanford
+
SMU
Tulane

 

[SDHornet]

If we land in an FBS conference, we need a driveable rival as a conference mate. If we land in the MW and SJSU and/or Nevada are conference mates, I'd be thrilled. If we land in the MW and it is as far flung as the BSC is, then I don't really see the point in spending the money. Currently, SJSU and Nevada aren't being floated as prime targets for the Pac12 but you never know who this all shakes out.

Per the Knight Commission data, the Hornet athletics budget was $44.7M in FY '23, $9.54M was student fees. The recent fee increase will push the budget to about $49.2M (assuming other revenue sources remain unchanged) after it is ramped up in the coming years. Revenues would increase at the FBS level (higher ticket prices, TV monies, influx of donations, etc) but coaching salaries would increase as well.

I agree with GCM, there needs to be immediate movement on facilities. We'll see movement on smaller projects immediately, but the larger projects will take time and need to get going (planning and design) ASAP. Even if the money was there now, it would be 2-3 years before a shovel hits the ground for a new stadium.

 

[Green Cookie Monster]

Even if the money was there now, it would be 2-3 years before a shovel hits the ground for a new stadium.

Nothing in the Trustees minutes that are to be reviewed or approved on Sept. 24th. Next meeting is November. Nothing can start until that process is greenlighted.

I think the Pac? is making a huge mistake adding USF, in Orlando Florida or Tulane in NOLA or even Memphis. The travel budget will be astronomical and the amount of time out of classroom, normal student life will be a bigger impact too. Can you imagine Fresnot to Orlando, bad enough going, coming back it is brutal with three hour loss.

 

[Green Cookie Monster]

The question is if the pipe dream Pac doesn't work, is everyone still on Sac12 and University as eager and committed for the MWC? With the five goals that were outlined.

 

[HornetFootballFan]

Agree… if and or when we receive a MWC invitation we could then also run projections on revenue sharing and estimated ticket sales assuming we would have the rest of the MWC remains in addition to our FUCD game. These numbers will finalize budget on stadium.

Hopefully right now. They are meeting w Sac Republic FC putting together a LOA to finalize within 60 days while we wait for news on new conference? Then we know exactly what we can afford to build. I think 30K seating is needed? Or 25K seating w a temporary end zone addition to use first few years while the main stadium is built.

I love the Montana schools but that travel expense and the small tv markets in Montana / Dakota they wouldn’t be bringing $ or a friendly travel destination. (Expensive charter flights).

I watched Big Mountain podcast YouTube they recognize importance of big tv market to generating good tv contracts. They said SAC ST impressed with overall offering and we should be #1 on rebuild list!

Hopefully UNLV & Reno stay united as both Reno & UNLV are also great travel destinations. (Short easy flight Vegas).

I see rest of MWC target being in TEXAS. Big Market new time zone and solid recruiting region for conference teams.

I’m thinking Gloria likes us keeping central CA and top 20 TV Market,

She will assume we will sit patiently and wait while she shops FBS teams first priority.

Patience… they know we are open for business!

With NIL money and a new stadium. I’d be happy to kick AZZ in FCS if we didn’t get an invitation somehow. (High likelyhood we can get a MWC invite).

Great time to be a Hornet Fan!

 

[SDHornet]

Nothing in the Trustees minutes that are to be reviewed or approved on Sept. 24th. Next meeting is November. Nothing can start until that process is greenlighted.

I think the Pac? is making a huge mistake adding USF, in Orlando Florida or Tulane in NOLA or even Memphis. The travel budget will be astronomical and the amount of time out of classroom, normal student life will be a bigger impact too. Can you imagine Fresnot to Orlando, bad enough going, coming back it is brutal with three hour loss.

It all depends on the TV deal payout. An executive for some TV network will crank out a valuation of these targets and they will make a recommendation on whether or not to make an invite. Those targeted AAC schools will then have to determine if the juice is worth the squeeze.

 

[Kadeezy]

McFeely: While NDSU tempers FBS chatter, Sacramento State lets 'er rip

Unlike Bison bosses, boosters of California FCS school openly campaigning for spot in higher-level FBS

www.inforum.com

Here's the text for those of you not savvy enough to bypass paywalls...

Get a load of Sacramento State.

Boosters of that school in California's capital city, which is currently a member of the FCS Big Sky Conference, are openly campaigning to get Sac State into the Pac-12. Those doing the campaigning are not officially connected to the school, but ... c'mon.

Local politicians, alums and business owners formed the SAC 12 committee to advocate for the school in hopes it will get an invitation to the famed Pac-12. They are touting strengths in enrollment (30,000), television market size (2.4 million people in the metro, 20th largest TV market in the country) and on-the-field success (consistent top 10 FCS program) while selling the benefits of a move up to the community (national exposure, sports tourism dollars, prestige).

It is, quite starkly, the exact opposite of the approach NDSU is taking. And almost every other school that's wanted to change leagues or levels in recent years. University presidents, athletic directors and conference commissioners like to operate in the shadows on matters of conference realignment.

Sac State's boosters are letting 'er rip.

It seems unlikely a public campaign would sway the Pac-12 into inviting Sac State to join the party. The school's strengths and weaknesses are well-known by those in the league.

What's most interesting is the local sales job informing Sacramento businesses, residents and politicians about the benefits of moving up. There are advantages to being in an FBS conference compared to FCS and the committee is letting the locals know about them.

Larsen and NDSU are walking a delicate line when it comes to FBS. Understood. They don't want to be loud for reasons we've outlined. But they'd benefit from being better at public relations. Let fans and boosters know the upside to being FBS. Let them know NDSU is one of the few land-grant universities that's not already FBS. Let them know the Bison could get more games against the big boys from big conferences.

Let them know the good stuff.

There are things to sell here.

There are things about which to get excited.

Sacramento State's attention blitz isn't NDSU's style. We get it. But maybe just a little of that chutzpah couldn't hurt?

 

[the Rat]

@SamHerderFCS who extensively covers FCS football posted the following this morning,

 

[stingthemgood]

@SamHerderFCS who extensively covers FCS football posted the following this morning,

He’s also a lifelong North Dakota State fan and homer. So I generally take him at face value, unless he’s talking about NDSU.

 

[Kadeezy]

He’s also a lifelong North Dakota State fan and homer. So I generally take him at face value, unless he’s talking about NDSU.

Herder and Matt Brown have been wrong at every step with realignment news, especially related to Sac State - very unlike them, but they've lost some credibility. Front Office Sports' Amanda Christovich has been spot on with her reporting. Accurate at least and not reporting in absolutes.

 

[Kadeezy]

Gloria Navarez was at the Sac State/San Jose State game - Hopefully, she left at the beginning of the 4th Quarter, lol... She was at the PAC-12 when we ran through a couple of their teams, and knows what we did to CSU. We'll see...