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The PAC/MWC Dominoes Begin to Fall

Chat GPT on a Pac-12 invite for '26...

As of now (June 2025), giving precise numerical odds for Sacramento State receiving an invitation to join the Pac-12 in 2026 is speculative, as it depends on several fluid factors. However, based on available data, conference realignment trends, institutional positioning, and media reports, a reasonable estimate can be provided:



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  1. Market Size (Strong)
    • Sacramento is the #20 U.S. media market, ahead of markets like Salt Lake City and Tucson.
    • The Pac-12 has lost key media markets (e.g., Los Angeles) and may seek to reestablish media reach.
  2. Facility Commitments (Rising)
    • Plans for a new football stadium (~25,000 seats) and major basketball upgrades.
    • Use of the Golden 1 Center (NBA arena) for basketball is a strong logistical plus.
  3. Institutional Fit
    • With 30,000+ students, Sac State is a large public university, fitting the academic and demographic profile of Pac-12 institutions.
  4. NIL and Local Support
    • Over $50 million in NIL funds raised via the “SAC 12” initiative shows serious commitment to competitiveness.
  5. Pac-12 Needs Members
    • If the Pac-12 rebuilds from its 2024 disintegration, it may need geographically logical and media-savvy members—especially if schools like Oregon State and Washington State stay and seek partners.

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  1. Football Brand and History (Weak)
    • Sac State is currently FCS. A move to FBS (let alone Power Conference level) is a major step with no precedent for immediate Pac-12 inclusion.
    • No deep national football history or major bowl appearances.
  2. Academic Reputation (Neutral)
    • While solid, Sac State does not hold AAU status, which some conferences (like the Big Ten and historically the Pac-12) prioritize.
  3. Other Candidates
    • The Pac-12 may target more established football brands transitioning from Group of Five programs: Boise State, San Diego State, UNLV, or SMU (though SMU joined the ACC).
    • Montana State, UC Davis, and North Dakota State are other academically solid FCS programs with better recent football records.
  4. Timing
    • 2026 is likely too soon for a full FBS transition unless plans are accelerated.


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  • Chance of a Pac-12 invite in 2026: ~15–25%
  • Chance of a Pac-12 invite later (2027–2030): ~30–40%, assuming successful FBS transition and athletic program growth.
 
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