UNI @ EWU Game Day Thread

[dudeitsaid]

UNI is a very dangerous opponent. Just look at our history against them... it ain't good. I could be mistaken, but I think this is only the second time they've come to Cheney... every other game was in the Unidome (one of the better indoor stadiums).

Every team we play that can smash the ball will have the same gameplan. It's exactly what we saw versus Portland State last week. They'll try to dominate possession and play 3 downs at a time. We've been able to keep our scores reasonable, but our defense has struggled a ton to get off the field without allowing multiple first downs. Given the tempo offense we play, keeping our defense on the field is a double whammy. It keeps us from threatening, and it takes us out of rhythm offensively.

I realize it's unchangeable at this point, but if I had one philosophical change I could make, it would be greater focus on 3-and-outs. I couldn't care if we ever get a turnover, I just want to see three and out on 50% of possessions. But that's not who we are right now, so we may need a couple of turnovers to swing things in our favor. I expect we'll play defense with the soft zones and using just four to pressure, while occasionally bringing two extra through the gaps. Being able to disrupt the flow with just four will be key, but I think that'll be tough as UNI is pretty coherent on the line.

Defensively, I like what UNI does. They aren't nearly as big of a blitzing team as we've seen, but given our difficulty dealing with blitzes this year, maybe that'll change on Saturday. They show a lot of mixed zones with one or two high. I expect they'll be showing two high safeties except when they dial up the blitz to guard against our passing game. If so, I expect to see us utilize the flats on shorter routes... maybe a heavy dose of WR screens.

I think UNI brings about the same brand as Montana, so the game could theoretically be similar. They're not easy to score against, and they do enough on offense to make life difficult. Interestingly, UNI, Montana, and Eastern all shared Western Illinois as an opponent. UNI and Montana blew them out, while we were a defensive disaster and damn near lost.

but our defense has struggled a ton to get off the field without allowing multiple first downs.

Eastern is 24th ranked in 3rd down defense while UNI is 92nd in 3rd down conversions offensively Dopa. Nearly every team we faced is significantly better than that. Not sure what stats you're looking at because your assertion just isn't true. I can't see into the mind of the DC and always wonder why the team reverts back occasionally to poor schemes that have proven ineffective aka PSU last week. Coaches are just stubborn and stick to beliefs regardless of outcomes, like most people do. It's just under a microscope on the gridiron. Believe I've written nearly a book over the past 10+ years on poor scheme, lack of situational awareness, awful personnel choices etc. and would say that this is the first season since the Natty, Eastern is playing smart a majority of the time and several players have improved as well. Without pounding on Ena, will say he's embraced some new concepts that have made the defense better and hope he gets out of his own way this coming week. Every defense wants to get off the field 3 and out. ;-)

Don't think the Eagles have struggled with blitzes and are ranked 48th in sacks allowed (some of this is on EB3 not throwing it away and or seeing the field), Eag's played three teams that had WAY above average DB coverage and aggressive front 7's. The OL is middle of the pack with what seems like constant moves of position and several freshman playing lots of minutes. All in all they've done well though and thought they played better the last two games (maybe I'm wearing rose colored glasses) and Shoemaker's default mode was no outlet, 15+ yard routes after creating long 3rd downs when things got tight IMO. Not a recipe for success.

If it makes you feel any better Eastern is nearly twice as good at getting stops in the red zone as UNI. Ranked 46th vs 96th. Not everything is stats or there'd be no reason to play the games.

I’ll take your word on the third down stats, but what I’m mostly referring to isn’t so much third downs but the fact we don’t get off the field in general. We are third from last in the conference in time of possession and total number of defensive plays. I tried to find a stat on first downs conceded, but wasn’t able to. My hunch is that wouldn’t paint a rosy picture either. We saw the gameplan Portland State used, and it wasn’t a whole lot different than Montana State or Weber State. They tried to get first down after first down, knowing it keeps our offense on the sideline and gets them out of rhythm.

If UNI is able to control the ball like that, it makes every offensive possession all that much more critical. Even if we don’t score, we need to possess the ball enough to build some rhythm and keep the D from getting drained.

Not sure if this is what you are looking for, but EWU is ranked 82nd out of 123 schools (gave up 122). https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/694/p2 EWU gave up 2 more first downs than SIU, and playoff teams UC Davis (107), SELU (110), and UIW (118) are all below the Eags. UNI is 13th out of 123 schools in that stat...only giving up 171 first downs.

Also, just for the heck of it, UNI is ranked 8th in 3rd down conversion% defense, while EWU is 24th. Offensively, EWU converts over 50% of 3rd downs. UNI is 92nd out of 123 schools at 33%. If EWU can get them into 3rd and long, seems like that would go well in Eastern's favor.

 

[luckyintheorder]

UNI is a very dangerous opponent. Just look at our history against them... it ain't good. I could be mistaken, but I think this is only the second time they've come to Cheney... every other game was in the Unidome (one of the better indoor stadiums).

Every team we play that can smash the ball will have the same gameplan. It's exactly what we saw versus Portland State last week. They'll try to dominate possession and play 3 downs at a time. We've been able to keep our scores reasonable, but our defense has struggled a ton to get off the field without allowing multiple first downs. Given the tempo offense we play, keeping our defense on the field is a double whammy. It keeps us from threatening, and it takes us out of rhythm offensively.

I realize it's unchangeable at this point, but if I had one philosophical change I could make, it would be greater focus on 3-and-outs. I couldn't care if we ever get a turnover, I just want to see three and out on 50% of possessions. But that's not who we are right now, so we may need a couple of turnovers to swing things in our favor. I expect we'll play defense with the soft zones and using just four to pressure, while occasionally bringing two extra through the gaps. Being able to disrupt the flow with just four will be key, but I think that'll be tough as UNI is pretty coherent on the line.

Defensively, I like what UNI does. They aren't nearly as big of a blitzing team as we've seen, but given our difficulty dealing with blitzes this year, maybe that'll change on Saturday. They show a lot of mixed zones with one or two high. I expect they'll be showing two high safeties except when they dial up the blitz to guard against our passing game. If so, I expect to see us utilize the flats on shorter routes... maybe a heavy dose of WR screens.

I think UNI brings about the same brand as Montana, so the game could theoretically be similar. They're not easy to score against, and they do enough on offense to make life difficult. Interestingly, UNI, Montana, and Eastern all shared Western Illinois as an opponent. UNI and Montana blew them out, while we were a defensive disaster and damn near lost.

but our defense has struggled a ton to get off the field without allowing multiple first downs.

Eastern is 24th ranked in 3rd down defense while UNI is 92nd in 3rd down conversions offensively Dopa. Nearly every team we faced is significantly better than that. Not sure what stats you're looking at because your assertion just isn't true. I can't see into the mind of the DC and always wonder why the team reverts back occasionally to poor schemes that have proven ineffective aka PSU last week. Coaches are just stubborn and stick to beliefs regardless of outcomes, like most people do. It's just under a microscope on the gridiron. Believe I've written nearly a book over the past 10+ years on poor scheme, lack of situational awareness, awful personnel choices etc. and would say that this is the first season since the Natty, Eastern is playing smart a majority of the time and several players have improved as well. Without pounding on Ena, will say he's embraced some new concepts that have made the defense better and hope he gets out of his own way this coming week. Every defense wants to get off the field 3 and out. ;-)

Don't think the Eagles have struggled with blitzes and are ranked 48th in sacks allowed (some of this is on EB3 not throwing it away and or seeing the field), Eag's played three teams that had WAY above average DB coverage and aggressive front 7's. The OL is middle of the pack with what seems like constant moves of position and several freshman playing lots of minutes. All in all they've done well though and thought they played better the last two games (maybe I'm wearing rose colored glasses) and Shoemaker's default mode was no outlet, 15+ yard routes after creating long 3rd downs when things got tight IMO. Not a recipe for success.

If it makes you feel any better Eastern is nearly twice as good at getting stops in the red zone as UNI. Ranked 46th vs 96th. Not everything is stats or there'd be no reason to play the games.

I’ll take your word on the third down stats, but what I’m mostly referring to isn’t so much third downs but the fact we don’t get off the field in general. We are third from last in the conference in time of possession and total number of defensive plays. I tried to find a stat on first downs conceded, but wasn’t able to. My hunch is that wouldn’t paint a rosy picture either. We saw the gameplan Portland State used, and it wasn’t a whole lot different than Montana State or Weber State. They tried to get first down after first down, knowing it keeps our offense on the sideline and gets them out of rhythm.

If UNI is able to control the ball like that, it makes every offensive possession all that much more critical. Even if we don’t score, we need to possess the ball enough to build some rhythm and keep the D from getting drained.

No one would disagree that if UNI can maintain control of the ball/clock that winning would become more difficult, especially if they are paying off that control with TD's. A good basis for reality is here: https://goeags.com/sports/football/schedule click on the box score for a game and drive summary. IMO the defense has done their jobs this season, even in the two losses. Breakdowns on the offense and special teams were far more egregious. 5 three and outs against Weber in the 2nd half and a missed PAT not to mention the 3 fake punts hno:

Eagle D got Weber off the field 6 times in 3 downs... MSU 4 times... Griz 6 times... WIU 7 times... What's key here is how often was the Eagle offense taken off the field. At WIU 4 times 3 and out in the second half, is that a defensive issue or an offensive issue?

What happened at PSU was a coaching issue in the first half. In the second half, 5 quick outs, 2 fumbles, 2 outs on 4th down and a punt. It wasn't a perfect affair on the offensive side of the ball either. Two late punts and running EB3 towards the end of the game was asinine.

I hear you, but in regards to the Western Illinois game specifically, that is 100% a defensive issue. We scored 62 points. We gave 56. That's 100% on the defense, and should be a big pat on the back for the offense.

With Weber, Montana, and Montana State... all of those teams are built around their defense. They are hard to score on. Only FBS top 20 Utah (40) and James Madison scored more on Weber than we did. Only Montana scored more on Montana State than we did. No one scored more on the Griz than we did. The offense has had it's struggles, but it's a light year comparatively better than the defense.

I think our perpetually good offenses give me a different reality. We score a lot offensively, and when we don't, the assumption is we just stunk it up. We give up a lot of points, so even when we only give up a marginal amount of points, it's treated like we played lights out. The defense has also played well at times, but it is a fairly ordinary FCS defense while the offense is closer to extraordinary.

I feel like poor little Hefe speaking to El Guapo on this one. What happened 8+ weeks ago is no indication of what the outcome of this game will look like on Saturday. Whitewashing of the offensive inadequacies to finish a game is spectacularly myopic. Look, you're worried and it's what I've come to fondly refer to as "Dopa mode". Everyone is worried. This is an average defense. Not sure anyone is saying anything different. It has been good enough to keep Eastern in games despite poor special teams play and odd inconsistencies on offense, it's not good enough to win games for the team like maybe a top ten defense can.

When the defense has played well this season they are not being overly aggressive, they win one on one battles at the line of scrimmage and play solid man coverage (hard to see all the time on TV, ) with a safety roaming around looking studly. When they've looked foolish they run lots of stunts on the DL, run the LB's into OL players, drop into zones, forget to manage the edge and generally run themselves out of position. I've chalked it up to Ena, since we've seen this for a multitude of years. I don't know why he reverts but this season has been FAR superior to the recent past per my eye and with the results are better.

Asking a team to focus on 3 and outs is not good goal setting IMO. I'd rather the team focus on "doing their job" which implies a level of trust that everyone else is doing their jobs. If they do that, results will most assuredly be better. I don't want players running themselves out of position trying to make a low percentage play to achieve a goal that doesn't determine the outcome of the game. If getting 5+ three and outs a game isn't enough to win a game there are bigger issues and Eastern D has done that all season...

Paired with the offense when it's playing well, this defense is more than adequate and hasn't cost eastern any games this season, it just hasn't won any. (maybe the two TO's at PSU should count) I think the facts speak for themselves. This will require a team effort.

[media]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6E682C7Jj4[/media]

 

[clawman1]

Lucky;
Didn't the D create two turnovers vs the Cats when they only had 3 all season previous to that? IMO the D did their job in that game it was the O that failed.

 

[luckyintheorder]

Lucky;
Didn't the D create two turnovers vs the Cats when they only had 3 all season previous to that? IMO the D did their job in that game it was the O that failed.

Not getting an argument from me clawman. Caused two Weber TO's. The inexplicable was the four 3 and out's in the second half IN A ROW by the offense. The next possession was a 3 and out INT... So five 3 and outs in a row in the 2nd half. Average starting field possession for Weber was the 40 and 3 fake punts for first downs and a missed extra point.... Wish the D had been able to get a final stop but this one wasn't all on the D as you point out. I know Eastern can beat UNI handily but also know that is a solid team and it will definitely take a full team effort to do so. Hope UNI is still eating turkey sandwiches an hour before kickoff

Qtr. Drive Started Drive Ended Consumed
Spot Time Obtained Spot Time How Lost Plays-Yds. TOP
EWU 3rd EWU20 10:56 KO EWU20 10:22 PUNT 3-0 00:34
EWU 3rd EWU30 09:02 PUNT EWU36 07:46 PUNT 3-6 01:16
EWU 3rd EWU47 05:55 PUNT EWU32 04:44 PUNT 3-(-15) 01:11
EWU 3rd EWU16 01:51 PUNT EWU23 01:17 PUNT 3-7 00:34
EWU 4th EWU25 12:39 KO EWU38 11:52 INT 3-13 00:47

https://goeags.com/sports/football/stats/2021-22/weber-state-university/boxscore/4683

 

[clawman1]

Saturday
Rain likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

 

[LDopaPDX]

Lucky... I hear you. And there's no doubt I'm a cynic. I know it, believe me.

Here's where you lose me... look at our conference. How many Big Sky offenses are better than us? Likely none. That's extraordinary, being the best of a fairly deep bunch.

How many defenses are better than us? Definitely Montana, Montana State, Weber State, and probably Sac State. Maybe others too, but those 4 definitely or probably are. That put us 5 of 13 at best. Maybe that's a little better than average, but it's pretty close to the median. Therefore, saying it's average kind of fits.

Honest question... do you see it differently? I'm not trying to be argumentative, just realistic. I don't see how it could be justified that Eastern is better defensively than any of the aforementioned teams except *maybe* Sac State.

 

[Obzerver]

Seems to me this defense is better than in recent years. Not basing it on stats, just from watching them. Still see mistakes that cost us sometimes at the worse time in the run of play. They will need to minimize mistakes and creat turnovers. Offense has to give them a chance to recoup.There isn't a team we can't beat...period. They are good enough to keep us in games and posiibly win a game. As far as UNI is concerned they averaged 26 pts a game so if we can hold them to under 35 we will win.
Special teams in the playoffs are of concerned as games will teeter on their success/failure. Have they come up with a magic potion in the new science building???

 

[LDopaPDX]

Seems to me this defense is better than in recent years. Not basing it on stats, just from watching them. Still see mistakes that cost us sometimes at the worse time in the run of play. They will need to minimize mistakes and creat turnovers. Offense has to give them a chance to recoup.There isn't a team we can't beat...period. They are good enough to keep us in games and posiibly win a game. As far as UNI is concerned they averaged 26 pts a game so if we can hold them to under 35 we will win.
Special teams in the playoffs are of concerned as games will teeter on their success/failure. Have they come up with a magic potion in the new science building???

LOL... at this point, I think we have to accept that special teams are a problem and just do our best to limit the damage. Can't allow kicks to be returned for TDs, so if we can't get it deep in the endzone, just squib it. As for the return game, just starting at the 25 and avoiding worse field position, turnovers, and penalties is better than the alternative. As for FGs and PATs, it is what it is. Nick Kokich has done pretty well this year, so I guess there's one positive.

 

[talon38]

Been reading lots of threads and taking it all in, plus I did my own scouting of UNI, so I’ll put in my 2 cents worth. The UNI Defense is as good or better than the Griz D. EWU was probably the #9 team in the playoff committee’s ranking while UNI was the the last team IN. Due to regionalization, we get to play each other. This is probably the toughest opponent in the field of 16 (absent the top 8 seeds) EWU could face. Now time to deal with a REALLY tough opponent from the Missouri Valley conference.
The UNI offense is a run first team, and will run it until you can’t stop it. There QB is a big boy, 6’5” , 220lb,Michigan State transfer with a cannon of an arm. He seems to be more of a 1 read guy on passing, look for a outlet, then run. He’s definitely sackable in the pocket, but once outside the pocket CAN RUN, and pick up yards. Prone to INT’s , especially on the deep ball when they throw it.
There D is built to stop the run in the Missouri Valley Conference as it should be. #44 on there D Line is an NFL draft pick and was MVP DEFENSIVE player of the year. There front 4 on D line get such great penetration that at times, it will be opportune for EB to step up in the pocket and RUN. Another thing I did notice is they got big Boy LB’s, designed to stuff the run in the MVC, but are very succeptable. to the pass, just like Maine was in 2018, ( EWU Was just to fast) As far as DB’s, they tend to play off the WR’s also, so I really feel we could pass on them all day.
This is a team that EWU wants to get down by 2 scores to force them into more of a pass first game and more EWU tempo. This is going to be a VERY TOUGH game, but I got agree with Versus game simulation: 33-31 EWU.
Let’s GO EAGS!

 

[eaglesfootball]

Been reading lots of threads and taking it all in, plus I did my own scouting of UNI, so I’ll put in my 2 cents worth. The UNI Defense is as good or better than the Griz D. EWU was probably the #9 team in the playoff committee’s ranking while UNI was the the last team IN. Due to regionalization, we get to play each other. This is probably the toughest opponent in the field of 16 (absent the top 8 seeds) EWU could face. Now time to deal with a REALLY tough opponent from the Missouri Valley conference.
The UNI offense is a run first team, and will run it until you can’t stop it. There QB is a big boy, 6’5” , 220lb,Michigan State transfer with a cannon of an arm. He seems to be more of a 1 read guy on passing, look for a outlet, then run. He’s definitely sackable in the pocket, but once outside the pocket CAN RUN, and pick up yards. Prone to INT’s , especially on the deep ball when they throw it.
There D is built to stop the run in the Missouri Valley Conference as it should be. #44 on there D Line is an NFL draft pick and was MVP DEFENSIVE player of the year. There front 4 on D line get such great penetration that at times, it will be opportune for EB to step up in the pocket and RUN. Another thing I did notice is they got big Boy LB’s, designed to stuff the run in the MVC, but are very succeptable. to the pass, just like Maine was in 2018, ( EWU Was just to fast) As far as DB’s, they tend to play off the WR’s also, so I really feel we could pass on them all day.
This is a team that EWU wants to get down by 2 scores to force them into more of a pass first game and more EWU tempo. This is going to be a VERY TOUGH game, but I got agree with Versus game simulation: 33-31 EWU.
Let’s GO EAGS!

Good report Talon

 

[luckyintheorder]

Been reading lots of threads and taking it all in, plus I did my own scouting of UNI, so I’ll put in my 2 cents worth. The UNI Defense is as good or better than the Griz D. EWU was probably the #9 team in the playoff committee’s ranking while UNI was the the last team IN. Due to regionalization, we get to play each other. This is probably the toughest opponent in the field of 16 (absent the top 8 seeds) EWU could face. Now time to deal with a REALLY tough opponent from the Missouri Valley conference.
The UNI offense is a run first team, and will run it until you can’t stop it. There QB is a big boy, 6’5” , 220lb,Michigan State transfer with a cannon of an arm. He seems to be more of a 1 read guy on passing, look for a outlet, then run. He’s definitely sackable in the pocket, but once outside the pocket CAN RUN, and pick up yards. Prone to INT’s , especially on the deep ball when they throw it.
There D is built to stop the run in the Missouri Valley Conference as it should be. #44 on there D Line is an NFL draft pick and was MVP DEFENSIVE player of the year. There front 4 on D line get such great penetration that at times, it will be opportune for EB to step up in the pocket and RUN. Another thing I did notice is they got big Boy LB’s, designed to stuff the run in the MVC, but are very succeptable. to the pass, just like Maine was in 2018, ( EWU Was just to fast) As far as DB’s, they tend to play off the WR’s also, so I really feel we could pass on them all day.
This is a team that EWU wants to get down by 2 scores to force them into more of a pass first game and more EWU tempo. This is going to be a VERY TOUGH game, but I got agree with Versus game simulation: 33-31 EWU.
Let’s GO EAGS!

Good breakdown . UNI is a good team but I have reason to be optimistic after watching a couple of their games against S. Ill and Missouri St.

Not sure that UNI defense is as good as Montana's, not as quick at the LOS and I think Montana/Weber/MSU have better defensive backfields too. As you say, I don't think they can cover Eastern's WR's consistently. Not whitewashing but most teams didn't throw the ball as often in the MVC. Day's more of a pocket guy IMO and am confident the Eagle's can get home against him if UNI is made to throw the ball despite their massive OL. (average 6'6" 320) Day threw 10 picks and only 15 td's and has only 49 yds rushing. He shows good poise. It sounds like their other FBS back who was injured will be available to play too. He played against the Salukis.. he's a big back, not much shake and bake in the few carries I saw.

One other key is they will go from a 4 man front to a 3 man front if they expect the pass. If EB3 see's these fronts, I anticipate he will have the option to run or pass and possibly audible. If it was my offense, I would run it every time they showed a 3 man front. Every time. It's key that the Eagles keep UNI's defense covering the whole field. Eag's can run against this team if they leverage motion, lead blockers, TE's too the strong side of the formation and weak side if they use some misdirection (Pierce isn't the right guy for this). Would also like to see the guard pull to lead interior runs but this is just a fantasy.

BTW the DPoY player stats were just slightly better than Joshua Jerome ;-) Eastern has a great player in that kid. Can't know what Ena has planned. I believe the DL can play hat on a hat and be successful with our quicker guys (Jerome, Johnson, Harrison) getting penetration and putting pressure on the QB and allowing the LB's to flow to the RB's. Looking forward to Graham shooting a gap once in a while too.

Totally agree Eastern should get them down early and then get them down some more (I paraphrased ;-) )

[media]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4C7X0DZ0Xs[/media]

 

[luckyintheorder]

Northern Iowa vs. Eastern Washington Roos Field Cheney, WA This one won't be close as the Eags sleep off the big Turkey day and come out swinging Saturday. This is the PRIME TIME game of Week 1

Watched UNI @ Missouri State last night and liked both teams. Whoever plays Missouri State will have a handful of trouble. They've got some speed and the QB transfer from Utah a couple of years ago.

UNI has an OL that averages 6'6" and over 320lbs and couple of RB transfers from FBS schools (one is injured, status unknown for Saturday) an All American receiver and a decent defense with several DB transfers from other schools. Farley is a solid, if unspectacular coach per the Panther fans and I recall they have commented on this in past contests.

UNI features a QB with a biggish arm but he has a very long motion, ala the Maine QB. OL is solid and I liked how they ran their offense. Motion, misdirection, counters, lead blockers, slants and stretching the field periodically. They do turn the ball over and the QB isn't talented enough to consistently hurt a good Eastern defensive backfield. Despite the good OL play expect Johnson, Jerome and company to put some pressure on the QB, especially off the right side and blitzes can get home. Definitely have to maintain the edge and upfront line stunts will likely be ineffective (of course, I think they aren't effective most of the time for a multitude of reasons)

If Eastern plays hat on hat with the DL and OL everything else will take care of itself. Would like to see EB3 stretch the field with some deep throws and use his legs to extend drives and generally put the defense on their heels. I think McCann has the running game doing a better job of setting up the passing game and the OL has blocked better in the second half of the last two contests. Tight formations play to UNI's strengths and not sure that screens will be super effective. Misdirection will be rewarded and can see TE's sneaking out the backside of plays being wide open.

Wish I could trust Ena to just believe in his players and let them play. Eag's are more effective in man than zone but moving the safety around in the middle of field could pay off with some TO's and stops. Aside from Sendelbach and Graham, Lindsay and Warren are going to have to step up their game and make sure the edges are maintained. Lindsay has improved a lot this season.

My recipe for success on defense is maintaining the line of scrimmage and taking advantage of long down and distance situations with pressure and letting the offense attack by stretching the field sideline to sideline (formation) and vertically. UNI will move the ball and play solid defense but struggles in the RedZone. If special teams gives up big plays, this one will be closer than it should be.

Is Best better when he is mad a hornet? Seemed like it earlier in the season but I'm not sure he was able to maintain that mode. Someone closer to the program will have to chime in. Eag's need the best out of the coaches and themselves this week. Know they will get back up this week after the committee worked to knock them down. I hate committee's.

I like the Eagles 45 UNI 25

Here is what the competition is saying about the upcoming game ;-)
https://www.missourivalleybeat.com/post/mvfc-week-1-fcs-playoffs-preview

Northern Iowa (6-5, MVFC At-Large) @ #4 Eastern Washington (9-2, Big Sky At-Large) – 3pm – ESPN+

While it is debatable whether UNI earned their way into the playoffs with their 6-5 record, if the Panthers somehow win the National Title there can be no debate. That ish would be earned. With the way the bracket is set up, if the seeds hold UNI would need to singlehandedly eliminate the entire STATS top 5 (mostly in consecutive weeks on the road) to win the championship. That is maybe the toughest draw in FCS playoffs history, but beggars can’t be choosers. The real losers here are Eastern Washington who have arguably the best player in the nation, finished 9-2 with an FBS win (UNLV) and no bad losses (by one to Weber and by 3 to Montana State), and beat two teams in the playoff field (one of which is seeded in Montana, the other is UC-Davis). Not only was that not deemed good enough for a seed, but it put them into a spot in the bracket where they would need to beat the top four ranked teams other than them, mostly on the road, to win the title. That would include a trip to Wa-Griz to face Montana, a team they already beat this season, in round two. That is rough. The Eagles are very, very good and are downright elite offensively. They never scored fewer than twenty points a game this season and averaged over 46 points per contest. Walter Peyton Award finalist Eric Barriere has thrown for over 4,200 yards and 40 (FORTY!) touchdowns to only six interceptions. He has also run for 224 yards and three more touchdowns. But the Eagles can beat you on the ground too, as running back Dennis Merritt has 812 yards on 168 carries with 14 touchdowns. As you might imagine, EWU has a slew of talented receivers. Ten different humans have caught touchdowns for Eastern Washington this year. Defensively, Eastern is not as solid but they don’t have to be. This isn’t a bad defense, it is average. And that is more than enough for this offense. Eastern Washington is one of a handful of teams capable of winning the National Title coming from the opening rounds. UNI is…..not as big of a threat offensively. Theo Day’s passing yard total of 2,127 is almost exactly half of Barriere’s, and his 15-10 TD-INT ratio is slightly worse than EB’s 40-6 mark. You’d think UNI would make up for it on the ground, but they come up short relative to the Eagles there too. The Panthers’ lead back Dom Williams has just 678 yards and 4 TDs, although he Vance McShane and Bradrick Shaw combined for over 1400 yards and 12 TDs. UNI’s bread and butter is its defense, which has been streaky but also dominant at times and is coming off a 12-sack, 5-turnover game. UNI is capable of big things when it plays at its best, and they did blow out the champions of Eastern Washington’s league on the road. They’ll need to be able to run the ball and get an outstanding performance from their defense to have any chance here.

My Prediction: EWU’s offense was elite in pretty much every game they played this year. UNI’s defense was elite sometimes, but it struggled against some of the better Valley teams. They shut down teams in several games, but gave up 34 to South Dakota, North Dakota State and Missouri State. They’ve shown they can shut down an average offense, but are susceptible to a good one, and EWU is as good as it gets. UNI can win this. They will need an elite defensive performance to slow the Eagle offense down enough to give the Panther offense a chance to keep pace. While I have seen UNI beat enough good teams this year to think it is possible, I don’t know that I think it is likely. I have Eastern Washington winning 38-21, pulling away late in the 3rd quarter. But if UNI does win, the Valley’s dominance can no longer be questioned. The winner of this game will play at 6th seeded Montana in the next round.

 

[Seattle Eagle]

This defense is probably a little better statistically than in recent years but where I see a demonstrable difference is in the number of TOs they create.

Speaking of the defense has anyone heard when Eli Doyle is going to return?

 

[Obzerver]

SE, great question Doyle. That would bolster our defense without a doubt…that would make my day seeing him on the field!

 

[LDopaPDX]

Eli Doyle is a weird one. He had been starting, then saw his minutes reduced, and then didn’t play at all against PSU. I thought he was our best defensive player at times this year. Is he even hurt? I guess it would explain why he’s seen his minutes reduced and missing PSU, but it felt like Smith started getting all the starts.

 

[EWURanger]

Game Day, Go Eags!

 

[luckyintheorder]

This defense is probably a little better statistically than in recent years but where I see a demonstrable difference is in the number of TOs they create.

Speaking of the defense has anyone heard when Eli Doyle is going to return?

He is listed as the backup to Anthany at safety on the two deep... Hope he's worked through whatever it was and is ready to hit the field again. His focus and joy on the field are fun to watch..

Eastern has a few guys who can play safety/rover like A. Smith and Doyle. Losing Graham and Criner will be a sizable hole next season. I noticed on the transfer portal WSU had a guy who looks the part. Not Eastern needs another "guy" but if there is someone exceptional would rather see him at Eastern than across the sidelines at PSU, MSU, Weber or Montana. NMSU fired it's HC too, would the Eagle's take Ojoh back? He looked very good this year. Eastern has quite a few LB's we haven't seen, I've considered LB a weakness and thought a good transfer would be a big help but don't know what's waiting in the wings...

Sorry just a couple of random thoughts. Not sold on too many transfers, but Montana, Weber and MSU built their defense's with quite a few and a little luck. O'Connell for the Griz was a walk-on I think..

 

[Olaf]

Let's rock! :rockon: :rockon: :rockon:

 

[ewueagfan]

Excited for this one and for the team to show the committee they got it wrong.

 

[ewueagfan]

Is it supposed to rain the entire game? I hope not.