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Week 1: Sac State @ New Mexico State

SDHornet

SDHornet

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Week 1: Sac State @ New Mexico State

The Hornets will be opening the season in one week with a money game in Las Cruces against New Mexico State. NMSU has some questions coming into this season and they will be looking to work some of those issues out. Same can be said for the Hornets, only the Hornets will debut their new offense installed by offensive coordinator Paul Peterson. It will be interesting to see how the Hornets respond to some fresh insight on the offensive side of the ball and how motivated and determined this team as a whole will be. Given the shocking OSU upset the Hornets pulled a year ago, I don’t expect to see NMSU sleeping on the Hornets when they roll into town.

Offense
I’m not too sure of the type of offense NMSU runs but their QB’s has considerable rushing stats from a season ago. They also had a lot of receivers who got touches so I think they run some sort of a spread option or pistol offense typically in the single back, 3 receiver formations. NMSU lost their starting QB, top 2 leading receivers, and 3 starting linemen to graduation as well as their leading rusher to the NFL. This NMSU offense will have plenty to work on but they will have the benefit of being familiar with a system that has been in use for a few years. NMSU had a potent offense last season (49th FBS total offense) but with a lot of their playmakers departed, there is no telling if their offense can be as productive this early in the season.

Returning leading players from 2011:
  • • QB: (#8) Andrew Manley: 62 of 109 for 892 yds, 6 TD’s, 3 INT’s
    • RB: (#28) Robert Clay: 42 carries for 133 yds, 1 TD, 4 recs for 57 yds
    • WR: (#4) Austin Franklin: 34 recs for 524 yds, 3 TD’s
    • WR: (#13) Kemonte’ Bateman: 28 recs for 414 yds, 4 TD’s
    • TE: (#15) Trevor Walls: 11 recs for 144 yds
    • LT: (#74) Devonte Wallace: 24 career starts
    • RG: (#78) Andrew Kersten: 11 career starts
With 3 starting Hornet defensive lineman being replaced, the task of going head to head against a young and inexperienced offensive line should be an interesting matchup. NMSU has some size listed on their roster so we will see how the interior defensive linemen respond. This was an issue for the Hornets last season so this game will give an early indication of whether or not this issue was addressed this offseason. Overall the Hornets will need to be aggressive and make open field tackles against this NMSU offense that will no doubt be looking to make some plays in space. It will be interesting to see how DC Parker plays his hand in this one; but facing a fairly inexperienced QB he very well may dial up some blitzes and see if this defense can rattle his cage.

Defense
NMSU runs a base 4-3 and they lost all but 3 of their starters from last year but return some players with experience. NMSU was one of the worst FBS defense last season (112th FBS total defense) and with a lot of experience departing due to graduation; they very well may have some defensive struggles again this season. I don’t know how aggressive this defensive unit is but given that the Hornets have a lot of new starters on offense, I expect NMSU to open it up and bring the pressure on the developing Hornet offense.

Returning leading players from 2011:
  • • LB: (#12) Bryan Bonilla: 71 tackles, 1.5 TFL’s, 0.5 sacks
    • CB: (#4) Darien Johnson: 40 tackles, 3 TFL’s, 1 sack, 2 PB’s
    • LB: (#36) BJ Adolpho: 41 tackles, 3 TFL’s,
    • DE/LB: (#9) Alexander LaVoy: 36 tackles, 1.5 TFL’s
    • CB: (#1) Jeremy Harris: 27 tackles, 2 PB’s
    • FS: (#8) Justin Smith: 28 tackles
    • DT: (#92) Walton Taumoepeau: 25 tackles, 4.5 TFL’s, 3 sacks, 2 FF’s
This first game is going to be all about getting the Hornet offense in a rhythm and getting these new players to gel. NMSU has some sizable players listed on the roster so running between the tackles will probably be a problem, but I don’t think that will be an emphasis under Peterson’s offense. The bigger issue will be seeing how the Hornet offensive line deals with a larger NMSU defensive line and whether or not they can provide enough time for Safron. The main thing for the Hornets will be ball movement, if Safron can keep his composure and throw an accurate ball the Hornets might be able to gain some momentum against an inexperienced NMSU defense.

Special Teams
NMSU returns all of their kickers so they should have the leg up in this category. Austin Franklin looks like he can be a burner in the return game so the Hornets will have to look out for him. The Hornets allowed a couple of big returns last season so hopefully the coverage teams can keep the clamps on the NMSU returns.

Returning leading players from 2011:
  • • K: (#18) Tyler Stamper: 7/12 FG’s (long of 39 yds), 34/38 PAT’s
    • P: (#42) Jake Capraro: 74 punts for 2,909 yds (39.3 rpp)
    • KR: (#4) Austin Franklin: 3 returns for 103 yds
I do not know if they run any gimmicks on special teams but Coach DePrato will no doubt have the Hornet special teams ready. As every Hornet fan is aware, the biggest thing to look for on special teams will be how the Hornet kicking game rebounds from the disaster that was 2011. If the offense can move the ball, we very well may find out if the place kicking will be reliable this season. If the offense fails to move the ball, we will see if the shanked punts have been remedied.

Intangibles
As always turnover and penalties can have major impacts in a game. NMSU did not have a stellar turnover margin from a season ago (-0.23, 80th FBS) and this may worsen with the voids this season, but this goes both ways as the Hornet have a lot of new faces as well. The Hornets finished 2011 with a dead even turnover margin of 0.00. NMSU averaged 52.5 penalty yards per game last season compared to 62.5 ypg given up by the Hornets. Given this is the first game of the season and both teams will be finding their rhythm, we could see quite a few mistakes next week.

I usually have FBS money games as a loss, but last season proved that anything is possible. I would like our chances better if we had more experience on offense returning, but given the influx of new starters for NMSU, it could very well be a wash. I’m hoping the Hornets can put forth a respectable showing and show signs of life on offense. Football is finally here, it’s time to get excited.

Go Hornets!

Game Info
  • • Kickoff: Thursday, August 30th @ 5 PM Pacific time.
    • TV: Altitude and Fox Sports Arizona
    • Video/Internet: ESPN 3 (Free depending on cable/internet provider)
    • Audio/Radio: 93.1 FM, audio link available on Hornetsports.com: http://client.stretchinternet.com/client/csus.portal#
 
Good luck guys! Must admit I'm jealous that you guys are getting the party started two days early. This final week is going to be a killer wait.
 
The Las Cruces New Mexico Newspaper take on the game;


http://www.lascrucesbulletin.com/ee/lascrucesbulletin/index.php?pSetup=lascrucesbulletin&curDate=20120824&pageToLoad=showPaperArticle.php&section=Sports&filename=lba_08-23_p19_p.pdf.0&artId=1&title=NMSU+hosts+Hornets" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
Was planning to make the trip this week, but home town scenarios were too much. Anyway, scouting the Aggies:

Offense: QB Andrew Manley is a beast, a Hawaii player of the year in HS, but tore his ACL last year. Managed to beat Minnesota on the road, and should be comfortable against the Hornets this week. The O Line isn't monstrous, but both Tackles are back, and are good. However, the only returning other starter is WR Kemont Bateman, a very good WR. RB Robert Clay will be a handful for the Hornets to contain, so I expect the Aggies to score here. They can put points up on the board. It will be tough to keep these guys in the 30's.

Defense: The Aggies return 4 starters, but add monster LB Trashaun Nixon from Ventura College. Plus, DE Donte Savage returns from an injury. They also add an Ole Miss transfer in Safety Dele Junaid.

Coaching: Dwayne Walker hasn't really gotten the program to any scale yet, although they've put some points on the board. He's 9 and 29 the last 3 years.

The Hornets have some talent at RB, have a decent size OL, with plenty of WR's, and may be able to play here for at least a half with the Aggies. Hornets do have some weapons. The Hornets also have some talent in the D Backfield, and could prove to be troublesome to the Aggies. But if Manley has regained any level of play, and can escape the rustiness, it will be a tough road for the Hornets. My guess is that Safron simply won't be able to pass enough to take advantage of this awful WAC defense. The Aggies have no depth on Defense, and allowed 37 points a game last year. IF there's a shot at beating a team on the road, it's a team that plays defense like these Aggies. But with Safron challenged to make any headway at the passing game, just can't see how the Hornets can keep up, in which should be a high scoring affair.

Surely, I hope I'm wrong. Last year, Jeff Fleming was a key weapon in the upset at Oregon State, and I just don't view the comparison with Safron. Running yes, but not the passing touch. Fleming was solid, not great, but a good enough passer to keep any Defense guessing. Safron won't have that luxury. If you recall, the Hornets problems began when Fleming went down, and although he returned, was never really the same after the injury. The Aggies have a revenge game against Ohio on deck, and who knows, may just overlook the Big Sky Hornets. But Walker needs wins, so my guess is he will ramp it up, especially with Manly coming back from an injury.

Conclusion: When it's all said and done, the Aggies should prove too much in a game with points being put up on the scoreboard. The Hornets have to hope Manley is rusty, timing off, and the lack of returners for the Aggies could also invite some issues. If this happens, the Hornets will hang, and can pull off another stunner. Safron would have to step up big-time if this is the case, and right now, don't buy it.
 
Great post SacStinger. I merged your thread with the other NM thread. Manley looked to put up solid stats in the games he played last season so I agree that he looks to be a more than capable player. And it sounds like they added some transfers to fill some immediate needs. I hoping with the high amount of turnover they had from a season ago translates into some growing pains for them. Of course there will be plenty of that on the Hornets sideline as well.

Hornetsports week 1 preview:
http://www.hornetsports.com/sports/football/release.asp?release_id=10589
 
I have a positive feeling about this Hornet team. We will be as good or better than last year.

Offense will take time to gel but our passing game should be strong. Special teams will help not hurt. The defense is probably better than people realize. I say we take the ball away from the Aggies more than once and win the game. No score prediction but I say the Hornets are 1-0 come friday.

Go Hornets!
 
I’m going to go with a 27-10 loss. This is a good matchup in that NMSU isn’t a strong program. They have a lot of question marks coming into this one as well. Unfortunately they have some familiarity on offense whereas we will be breaking in a new system with a lot of players that have minimal experience. I think the Hornets should be able to keep this one close though and I wouldn’t be shocked with a win here. Regardless of score, I'm hoping to see a Hornet squad that comes out hungry and agressive. I hope I’m wrong on my pick here, I sure as hell was wrong for last season’s week 1 game.
 
Based on last year, NMSU seemed to be able to put points on the board - scoring over 30 five times. My guess is they'll be able to score against Sac's Defense, especially with a young defensive front. I think the Hornet offense is going to be work in progress so it will be a challenge, even thougth the Aggie defense is somewhat weak.

Hornets will play with energy but I don't think that will be enough.

NMSU - 38
Sac St - 20

I hope I'm wrong!
 
I am going NMSU 28-9.

This game has some parallels with the UNLV game from 2009 (only Sac is an improved team at this point). I think the O-line, running backs and the defense as a whole are solid. Unfortunately, we still have no veritable quarterback. Fleming was at least a serviceable passer. The defense should make a game of it into the second half, but the drop back and pretend to throw and then run schtick worked about 2.5 times against UC Dorkus and probably wont work at all against NMSU - they probably expect it. There is a recent interview with Sperbeck on bigskyconf.com where he addresses the team's improved quarterback situation so hopefully I am wrong.
 
jj2319 said:
I am going NMSU 28-9.

This game has some parallels with the UNLV game from 2009 (only Sac is an improved team at this point). I think the O-line, running backs and the defense as a whole are solid. Unfortunately, we still have no veritable quarterback. Fleming was at least a serviceable passer. The defense should make a game of it into the second half, but the drop back and pretend to throw and then run schtick worked about 2.5 times against UC Dorkus and probably wont work at all against NMSU - they probably expect it. There is a recent interview with Sperbeck on bigskyconf.com where he addresses the team's improved quarterback situation so hopefully I am wrong.
Click to expand...
I hope you"re wrong, too. After watching the scrimmages this fall, Safron did look to pass the ball and would go through his reads. Hopefully the new OC has instilled some sense of order in what the QB is supposed to do. One too many runs and the ensuing damage, and we're down to a freshman signal caller fresh out of high school...
 
Does anyone know how the ESPN thing works? Do you have to have a Comcast logon or something to view online?
 
Kadeezy said:
Does anyone know how the ESPN thing works? Do you have to have a Comcast logon or something to view online?
Click to expand...
I think it will ask you for your cable/internet provider’s name and maybe some other info. If your provider has a deal with ESPN to include ESPN 3 for free when using their service, then you should have no problem viewing the game (as well as anything else streamed on ESPN 3). Otherwise it is a pay for use site.
 
I signed up for the NMSU Aggie video feed for the game. For $9.95 I don't have to screw around with cable/dish/etc. trying to figure out who has what.
 
ChiCity said:
I signed up for the NMSU Aggie video feed for the game. For $9.95 I don't have to screw around with cable/dish/etc. trying to figure out who has what.
Click to expand...

For the out of conference games last year, right before game time I googled "sacramento state vs. [whomever]" and got a live feed through the sites that came up. It worked for all the OOC games.
 
jj2319 said:
ChiCity said:
I signed up for the NMSU Aggie video feed for the game. For $9.95 I don't have to screw around with cable/dish/etc. trying to figure out who has what.
Click to expand...

For the out of conference games last year, right before game time I googled "sacramento state vs. [whomever]" and got a live feed through the sites that came up. It worked for all the OOC games.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the information. I'll try that for the Colorado game.
 
[facebook]356936447718453[/facebook]
Hornets going in all white tonight. I like it.
206156_517350558278747_1526757137_n.jpg
 
http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/138059/1/watch-sacramento-state-vs-new-mexico-state.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

watch the game for free.
 
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