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Week 10 - Sac State vs Weber State

BuckeyeHornetFan said:
But with regard to the DB’s getting burned in key situations, I still firmly contend coaching is mostly to blame for that. Go back and watch the two plays I outlined in particular. Based upon what the defensive front 7 did in each instance, they essentially had their coverages backward. What they did coverage wise on the 2nd and 11 is what they should have done on the 3rd and 16 and vice versa.

Daron Bland was hung out to dry on the 3rd and 16 and the coverage was too soft on the 2nd and 11 considering both linebackers blitzed (7 rushers in total) and there was no under neath coverage.

I’ve seen little problem with Andy Thompson’s defense calls and schemes up until this game. He’s had been really good. But tonight was different IMO.
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I don't disagree with your assessment of the coverage schemes, I just attributed a lot of it to the Hornet D selling out to stop the run (which they had to do to have a chance at stopping Weber). There were plenty of down and distance situations where the defense didn't blitz and still got torched.

Hornets lost to one of, if not the best team in FCS tonight. Nothing to get too down on this team for IMO.
 
SDHornet said:
There were plenty of down and distance situations where the defense didn't blitz and still got torched.

Hornets lost to one of, if not the best team in FCS tonight. Nothing to get too down on this team for IMO.
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There were some instances, you’re right. But none more impactful than the 3rd and 16 for sure. And the 2nd and 11 play setup another score. They play smart coverage on that one, they likely hold to a FG — assuming they don’t duplicate the same 3 and 16 coverage ;) So 14 points when it should have only been 3, assuming WSU makes a FG. Then they compound it by missing 2 open TD themselves. That’s a 25 point swing right there. On 4 plays.

With regard to WSU being one of the best teams, I’m not sold. I just wasn’t that impressed. Sorry.

Good team, yes. Well coached, yes. Top tier lines, yes. But they are one dimensional offensively. Against a good defense with technically sound coverage schemes, unlike what the Hornets decided to do, I don’t see them being able to sustain drives with their QB having to make reads and drive the field 5-15 yards at a time. Hornets bailed him out with their ridiculous coverages.

Defensively they are vulnerable too. Sac State only scored 17 but even with their backup QB should have scored 14 more points. I mean, that’s not a question or guess. The two plays were there. Defense was beat. QB just sailed both throws. 31 points should have been scored.

Weber ain’t all that. I think Montana can and will beat them if they play sound football.

And if that happens, $#&@ will have just got real again. It’ll be a SAC > UM > WSU > SAC situation and then what?
 
I agree we could have won if Thomson didn't go down, but I wouldn't be so quick to discredit Weber. Their offensive scheme plays into their strengths, and it works and has worked for a few years now. Regardless of who is in, they need to make plays. Weber made plays, the Hornets didn't.

The bigger concern is Thomson's health. I'm assuming he'll miss next weeks game, but if he is out for more than that and Dunniway doesn't get it together then this season could end in major disappointment.
 
BuckeyeHornetFan said:
SDHornet said:
There were plenty of down and distance situations where the defense didn't blitz and still got torched.

Hornets lost to one of, if not the best team in FCS tonight. Nothing to get too down on this team for IMO.
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There were some instances, you’re right. But none more impactful than the 3rd and 16 for sure. And the 2nd and 11 play setup another score. They play smart coverage on that one, they likely hold to a FG — assuming they don’t duplicate the same 3 and 16 coverage ;) So 14 points when it should have only been 3, assuming WSU makes a FG. Then they compound it by missing 2 open TD themselves. That’s a 25 point swing right there. On 4 plays.

With regard to WSU being one of the best teams, I’m not sold. I just wasn’t that impressed. Sorry.

Good team, yes. Well coached, yes. Top tier lines, yes. But they are one dimensional offensively. Against a good defense with technically sound coverage schemes, unlike what the Hornets decided to do, I don’t see them being able to sustain drives with their QB having to make reads and drive the field 5-15 yards at a time. Hornets bailed him out with their ridiculous coverages.

Defensively they are vulnerable too. Sac State only scored 17 but even with their backup QB should have scored 14 more points. I mean, that’s not a question or guess. The two plays were there. Defense was beat. QB just sailed both throws. 31 points should have been scored.

Weber ain’t all that. I think Montana can and will beat them if they play sound football.

And if that happens, $#&@ will have just got real again. It’ll be a SAC > UM > WSU > SAC situation and then what?
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Here’s the tiebreaker info, but I’m feeling like this is similar to basketball a few years back when we were in the driver’s seat to host the tournament, then sh|t the bed...

1. Head-to-head Competition
2.Record against common CONFERENCE opponents in descending order
3. Record against common NON-CONFERENCE opponents
4. Sagarin Rating
5. Coin Flip
 
I'm not sure I wanna read too much into Dunniway's poor performance. The radio commentators (even with one out and subbed for by Joe Davidson of the Bee) were MUCH better than the TV crew (Garcia STILL whomps), and stated that Dunniway was likely affected by rust and nerves, not to mention a group of Hammerheads not doing their jobs. If the coaches can fix the Hammerheads, and Fresques can take a hand with guiding Dunniway along, our remaining schedule isn't all that daunting, and I STILL think we're looking at a playoff berth, albeit not as high as we would have liked. And if Thomson's back by then, I think we're sitting pretty....
 
Weber ain’t all that. I think Montana can and will beat them if they play sound football.

And if that happens, $#&@ will have just got real again. It’ll be a SAC > UM > WSU > SAC situation and then what?

Here’s the tiebreaker info, but I’m feeling like this is similar to basketball a few years back when we were in the driver’s seat to host the tournament, then sh|t the bed...

1. Head-to-head Competition
2.Record against common CONFERENCE opponents in descending order
3. Record against common NON-CONFERENCE opponents
4. Sagarin Rating
5. Coin Flip

Disagree. If this happens the playoff committee will have us in 3rd position in conference we are the newbie here. If Weber wins we are tied for 2nd with the tiebreaker over MT and get higher seeding.
 
HornetHope said:
Disagree. If this happens the playoff committee will have us in 3rd position in conference we are the newbie here. If Weber wins we are tied for 2nd with the tiebreaker over MT and get higher seeding.
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https://www.ncaa.com/championships/football/fcs/road-to-the-championship
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Selection Process
The NCAA Division I Football Championship provides for a field of 24 teams to compete in a single elimination tournament. Of the 24 teams, 10 conference champions will receive automatic qualifications with the remaining best 10 teams being selected on an at-large basis by the Division I Football Championship Committee. The top eight teams in the 24-team bracket for the championship are seeded and receive First Round byes. Team pairings are determined according to geographical proximity. Teams from the same conference will not be paired for First Round games or for Second Round games when both teams are playing their first games of the championship (except for teams from the same conference that did not play against each other during the regular season; such teams may play each other in the first and second round).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Automatic bid does not necessarily equate to a playoff seed. Nor does conference standing nor poll ranking guarantee who is seeded and who is not.

Even after seeds are determined, there are other considerations for who hosts first round games. There are rules regarding travel and first round rematches. There is a bidding process for a home game where a certain amount of funds are guaranteed in order to host a home game.

Good luck to Sac St. I think you have a shot at a seed if you win out and things fall your way. Not sure if us beating the Griz would help or hurt you. A three way tie for the conference championship probably limits the conference to two seeds. But it is hard to read the committee sometimes.
 
SDH...I appreciate your evaluation of the game and feel it is absolutely the most reasonable and accurate. Some of these guys are ready to jump off the band wagon because suddenly they feel they are more astute than Taylor or Thompson.
 
OldSchoolHornet said:
SDH...I appreciate your evaluation of the game and feel it is absolutely the most reasonable and accurate. Some of these guys are ready to jump off the band wagon because suddenly they feel they are more astute than Taylor or Thompson.
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I agree OSH, if you would have told me at the first game of the season we would be top 10 ranked at any point in the year, (Super Hornet excepted he’s been tellin) I would have laughed my head off. This is a growing pain, and I am simply not going to get unhinged here. We have smart coaches and players and they will make the adjustments and all will be ok. BTW the hit Thomson took was more like a car accident, sudden whiplash movement, so with ice and the trainers working the muscles over he may be back this week.
 
Some observations:

1. TT is human.
2. Weber has a massive Oline, our Oline looked much smaller (shorter). Obinna got his sacks though.
3. Apparently Sears and Co. snuck into the coaches box. The magic on both sides of the ball was absent, very unfocused.
4. We all knew Thompson would get hurt, just a matter of time. His plan to gain another NCAA year of eligibility.
5. Real measure of this team is to see how they respond in Flagstaff, Moscow and against UCFE.
6. Who cares if they make playoffs or the seed? Just win and it will take care of itself.
7. We lose to davis, or the other two, it is all moot.
8. Awesome to see 11,000+ at the game!
 
I'm not saying we can't win without him but having Thomson back will certainly be tantamount to our success. The style in which he plays makes it almost an absolute that at some point he was going to go down. Not a critique of how he plays...just an observation. As I stated in an earlier post I don't believe the roster is deep enough for us to have injuries without dire results...and as SDH pointed out losing Thomson would be the most devastating loss of all. Hopefully some ice and ibuprofen will solve the problem and we'll get back on track in Flagstaff. I'll be there to watch and cheer like hell!
 
Random take-aways:

- Weber is a solid team. No turn-overs, no blown coverages, a swarming defense, an offense that grinds you down and keeps moving the chains. Tough beating that combination...
- Crowd was dead and we seemed to be a step slow. Poor game plan and poor execution. Disappointing when you consider that was the biggest game ever for the program.
- We didn't tackle very well. A lot of 0 yard stuffs turned into 3 yard gains.
- We got banged up. Besides Thomson, I saw quite a few players laying on training tables. Hopefully nothing long-term.
- QB drop-off is huge. A newbie vs a 3 year starter is an unfair comparison, but it is what it is. If Thomson can't play, our playbook will get a lot smaller. A week of meaningful snaps will help.
- Next game will be a huge indicator of the toughness/resiliency of the this team and staff.
 
BuckeyeHornetFan said:
With regard to WSU being one of the best teams, I’m not sold. I just wasn’t that impressed. Sorry.

Good team, yes. Well coached, yes. Top tier lines, yes. But they are one dimensional offensively. Against a good defense with technically sound coverage schemes, unlike what the Hornets decided to do, I don’t see them being able to sustain drives with their QB having to make reads and drive the field 5-15 yards at a time. Hornets bailed him out with their ridiculous coverages.

Defensively they are vulnerable too. Sac State only scored 17 but even with their backup QB should have scored 14 more points. I mean, that’s not a question or guess. The two plays were there. Defense was beat. QB just sailed both throws. 31 points should have been scored.

Weber ain’t all that. I think Montana can and will beat them if they play sound football.

And if that happens, $#&@ will have just got real again. It’ll be a SAC > UM > WSU > SAC situation and then what?
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BuckeyeHornetFan said:
Lastly, just like how Montana is back in the thick of things with the Hornets loss tonight — even though it looked gloomy for their fans after losing in SAC 2 weeks ago — I believe the Hornets are likely to be back in it in 2 weeks too.

I can see Montana beating WSU at home on 11/16. Unlike Sac State, they won’t make the same tactical errors with coverages in long yardage situations and I don’t believe WSU can beat them throwing it underneath. If Dalton Sneed is back for that game, I really like the Griz to win it. If not, Cam Humphrey looked great today so perhaps they’ll still have a decent shot at it.
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Ahem.

I knew it. And I called it.

Today’s UM v WSU game was 35-3 well into Q4 until WSU scored a couple garbage time TD’s late. It wasn’t close.

Constantine can’t sling it at all. UM knew that and took their run game away and didn’t screw up their coverages just like I predicted.

I still feel as I did after that game weeks ago. If Thomson doesn’t get hurt, he makes the plays Dunniway missed and that game would have come down to the wire despite the tactical/scheme issues on defense.

If the Hornets defensive game plan had been better, I believe they would have beaten Weber by a couple scores. That team can’t win with their QB having to read the defense and make mid range throws. Take away the run and single read play action deep throws and they’re toast.

Case in point today.
 
Oh gosh.

Look up the history of Weber State

Weber State was a junior college until 1964.
Weber State history dating back to the late 1980s and not taking that away.

But


They did not become a university until 1991, nearly 20 years after Sac State became designated as a university.

That being said congrats to
Weber State for playing football for 100 years. That is cool.

Nothing but respect for WSU and all the schools in the Big Sky.
 
BuckeyeHornetFan said:
BuckeyeHornetFan said:
With regard to WSU being one of the best teams, I’m not sold. I just wasn’t that impressed. Sorry.

Good team, yes. Well coached, yes. Top tier lines, yes. But they are one dimensional offensively. Against a good defense with technically sound coverage schemes, unlike what the Hornets decided to do, I don’t see them being able to sustain drives with their QB having to make reads and drive the field 5-15 yards at a time. Hornets bailed him out with their ridiculous coverages.

Defensively they are vulnerable too. Sac State only scored 17 but even with their backup QB should have scored 14 more points. I mean, that’s not a question or guess. The two plays were there. Defense was beat. QB just sailed both throws. 31 points should have been scored.

Weber ain’t all that. I think Montana can and will beat them if they play sound football.

And if that happens, $#&@ will have just got real again. It’ll be a SAC > UM > WSU > SAC situation and then what?
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BuckeyeHornetFan said:
Lastly, just like how Montana is back in the thick of things with the Hornets loss tonight — even though it looked gloomy for their fans after losing in SAC 2 weeks ago — I believe the Hornets are likely to be back in it in 2 weeks too.

I can see Montana beating WSU at home on 11/16. Unlike Sac State, they won’t make the same tactical errors with coverages in long yardage situations and I don’t believe WSU can beat them throwing it underneath. If Dalton Sneed is back for that game, I really like the Griz to win it. If not, Cam Humphrey looked great today so perhaps they’ll still have a decent shot at it.
Click to expand...

Ahem.

I knew it. And I called it.

Today’s UM v WSU game was 35-3 well into Q4 until WSU scored a couple garbage time TD’s late. It wasn’t close.

Constantine can’t sling it at all. UM knew that and took their run game away and didn’t screw up their coverages just like I predicted.

I still feel as I did after that game weeks ago. If Thomson doesn’t get hurt, he makes the plays Dunniway missed and that game would have come down to the wire despite the tactical/scheme issues on defense.

If the Hornets defensive game plan had been better, I believe they would have beaten Weber by a couple scores. That team can’t win with their QB having to read the defense and make mid range throws. Take away the run and single read play action deep throws and they’re toast.

Case in point today.
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You nailed it. Weebs got ran off the field in Missoula as this one was decided well before halftime. That said I doubt Weber has this bad of a game again, they are definitely a better team than what was on display today...kinda like we are better than what was on display when we hosted Weber. This Weber loss gives us a shot at a share of the BSC title this week so that's good for us.
 
SDHornet said:
You nailed it. Weebs got ran off the field in Missoula as this one was decided well before halftime. That said I doubt Weber has this bad of a game again, they are definitely a better team than what was on display today...kinda like we are better than what was on display when we hosted Weber. This Weber loss gives us a shot at a share of the BSC title this week so that's good for us.
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Don’t get me wrong, SD. I get that WSU is a pretty good team. I just saw what I saw and felt they were vastly overrated. I felt then and still feel now that they have more glaring weaknesses, such as being one dimensional on offense, than UM or the Hornets do.

I felt extremely confident those weaknesses would be on full display and exploited by the Griz. Which is why I stated it so emphatically. Despite the Hornets 27 point win against UM, I saw a more complete team in the Griz who just had a really bad game (combined with the Hornets being on fire!).

I’d really love for the Hornets to get another shot at WSU with a healthy Thomsen for the entire game. Just as I’m sure UM would love another shot at our Hornets with a healthy Dalton Sneed!

Just being honest, a rematch against UM worries me a lot more than a rematch against WSU. Regardless of the eventual outcome.
 
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