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Week 8 - Sac State vs Weber State

SDHornet

SDHornet

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Week 8 - Sac State vs Weber State

The Hornets (2-4, 0-2 BSC) host the Weber State Wildcats (3-4, 1-1 BSC) under 2nd year Head Coach Mickey Mental. The Wildcats have yet to find any consistency this season as they have alternated wins and loses every other week. WSU’s 3 FCS losses are by a combined 7 points with their latest game being an embarrassing home loss to a winless Northern Colorado, 17-21. WSU turned the ball over 5 times, including 2 inside the 5 yard line. The week prior, the Wildcats had a big upset win in overtime at Montana, 55-48.

The Wildcats run the RPO from the pistol and also spread the ball out in an empty backfield set. Quarterback Richie Munoz (119/207, 1492 yds, 14 TD, 2 INT, 49 car, 156 yds, 2 TD) leads the WSU offense and while not exceptionally fast, he is quick enough to get to the sticks, has a good arm, and doesn’t make bad decisions with the ball. In the backfield, a trio of players see considerable action with Damon Bankston (118 car, 692 yds, 5 TD, 6 rec, 94 yds, 1 TD) being the workhorse. Wide receiver Jacob Sharp (31 rec, 526 yds, 5 TD) is the top target in the passing game. Three other receivers have at least 12 receptions on the season. Up front, the Wildcat offensive line is physical and well suited for their pound and ground style of offense.

Offensive Team Stats
  • Points scored per game: 28.4 ppg (7th BSC / 37th FCS)
  • Total Offense: 415.7 ypg (202.6 rushing ypg / 213.1 passing ypg) - 6th (4th / 7th) BSC
  • Sacks Allowed: 9 (T-5th BSC)
  • Turnovers: 2/6 (INT/Fum)
  • Red Zone: 20/27 - 13/7 (TD/FG) - 11th BSC
Defensively, the Wildcats 4-3 defense has been respectable and ranks middle of the conference or better in most categories. Linebacker Garrett Beck (35 tkl, 3 TFL, 2 sac) and defensive end Brayden Wilson (35 tkl, 2.5 TFL, 1 sac) leads the defense in tackles. Defensive end Kemari Bailey (27 tkl, 11.5 TFL, 6 sac) has been a wrecking ball in the backfield and lead WSU in sacks and tackles for loss.

Defensive Team Stats
  • Points allowed per game: 23.6 ppg (5th BSC / 35th FCS)
  • Total Defense: 362.1 ypg (176.0 rushing ypg / 186.1 passing ypg) - 5th (8th / 3rd) BSC
  • Sacks : 11 (T-7th BSC)
  • Turnovers Forced: 2/5 (INT/Fum)
  • Red Zone: 17/18 - 16/1 (TD/FG) - 11th BSC
The WSU kick return game is atop the BSC with Clarence Butler and Noah Kjar averaging over 27 yards a return. Kjar has taken a return to the house this season. Kicker Kyle Thompson (14/15 PAT, 9/14 FG) has a long of 46 yards and one blocked field goal on the season. Punter Oscar Doyle (29 pnt, 45.1 ypp) has pinned 13 of his punts inside the 20 and he has 9 punts of over 50 yards.

Hornet Team Stats
  • Points scored per game: 27.7 (8th BSC / 41st FCS)
  • Points allowed per game: 27.3 (6th BSC / T-64th FCS)
  • Total Offense: 373.8 ypg (145.2 rushing ypg / 228.7 passing ypg) - 9th (9th / 4th) BSC
  • Total Defense: 344.8 ypg (104.2 rushing ypg / 240.7 passing ypg) - 3rd (2nd / 8th) BSC
  • Sacks Allowed: 5 (T-1 BSC)
  • Sacks: 20 (1st BSC)
  • Turnovers: 8/7 (INT/Fum)
  • Turnovers Forced: 6/7 (INT/Fum)
  • Red Zone Offense: 22/28 - 15/7 (TD/FG) - 9th BSC
  • Red Zone Defense: 15/20 - 13/2 (TD/FG) - 2nd BSC
Position Advantage
  • Quarterback: Wildcats. Richie Munoz is a capable thrower and is a big enough threat with his legs to have a bigger impact on the game than Carson Conklin.
  • Running Backs: Wildcats. The Wildcat running backs are better than the Hornet running backs by a considerable margin.
  • Wide Receivers: Push. Hard to tell which group of receivers is better. Jacob Sharp has a better stat line than Jared Gipson with one more game played.
  • Tight Ends: Push. The Hornets use their tight ends in the passing game more than the Wildcats, but the Wildcat tight ends are better in the run game.
  • Offensive Line: Wildcats. The Hornet offensive line protects the quarterback a little better, but more importantly the Wildcats are more effective in the running game.
  • Defensive Line: Push. Hornets get to the quarterback better than the Wildcats, but the WSU defensive front gets into the backfield more.
  • Linebackers: Hornets. Will Leota and Nakian Jackson find the ball more than Garrett Beck and company.
  • Defensive Backs: Wildcats. WSU is much more efficient at defending the pass compared to the Hornets.
  • Punters: Wildcats. Oscar Doyle places his punts much better than Cal McGough.
  • Kickers: Hornets. Zach Schreiner is more accurate than Kyle Thompson.
  • Kick Returners: Wildcats. The WSU return game has more game impact potential than the Hornets.
WSU turnovers let the game slip away from them last week which probably cost them a share of the BSC title, so they will be looking to make amends this week. WSU no doubt will look at how the Hornet defense struggled against an RPO power running game and hammer those same weaknesses again this week. The Hornets will need to force some 3rd and long situations to get the WSU offense off the field.

For the Hornet offense, there is no reason to think that Bobby will figure out a game plan that can be effective for 60 minutes against a stout defensive team like Weber State. Maybe some creativity gets added to the archaic plays and Hornet fans finally get to see something innovative…or probably not. A balanced offense will be needed to keep the WSU defense on its heels, if the Hornets have to chase points then they will have a difficult outing.

It’s hard to pick the Hornets given how badly they have been outcoached these past few games. Can this coaching staff stave off the regression back to middle of the road status and turn it around? At best this is a toss up game for the Hornets and Weber State is talented and physical enough to come in and get a win against this reeling Hornet program, which is what I think will happen.

Stingers Up!

WSU at UM Highlights:

UNC at WSU Highlights:
 
I have 13 tickets for this game with some folks I've thoroughly prepared to be disappointed lol. @Sting, I think the coast is clear for you to share that KB is no longer on the team. Not really going to give anyone a competitive advantage at this point.
 
Kadeezy said:
I have 13 tickets for this game with some folks I've thoroughly prepared to be disappointed lol. @Sting, I think the coast is clear for you to share that KB is no longer on the team. Not really going to give anyone a competitive advantage at this point.
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Until he is removed from the roster, he is still on the team.
 
I think if we run the ball down their throats, we can win....their D is not that good against the run but the challenge is to get BF to stick to the run THE WHOLE GOD DAMNED GAME!!!
 
Chat GPT's outlook for the remainder of the season...

Sacramento State has a challenging schedule ahead to close the 2024 season. After facing Weber State, their upcoming games include tough matchups within the Big Sky Conference. Their ability to finish strong will depend on maintaining consistency on both sides of the ball. Given their current form, expect competitive games with narrow margins.

Here are some predictions for their remaining games:

  • vs. Weber State: Sac State 27, Weber State 24
  • at Idaho State: Sac State 34, Idaho State 31
  • vs. Portland State: Sac State 31, Portland State 21
  • at Montana State: Montana State 34, Sac State 20
  • at Cal Poly: Sac State 28, Cal Poly 17
  • vs. UC Davis (Causeway Classic): Sac State 28, UC Davis 27
The outcome will likely hinge on health and momentum building through these final games.


My analysis of this prediction....

Final record, 7-5 (5-3 BSC) with Top 10 win over UC Davis, 7 D1 wins, possibly gets us into the playoff as an at-large (60% chance). Anything less than a 5-1 finish and we are not playing in the postseason for the first time since 2018.
 
sacstateman said:
I think if we run the ball down their throats, we can win....their D is not that good against the run but the challenge is to get BF to stick to the run THE WHOLE GOD DAMNED GAME!!!
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EWU was supposed to be a poor run defense. Tau T is a good back, but he is no Skatte Boo or Fulcher or Dotson.
 
HeavyistheClown said:
37-21 weeb.

Kinda hope they go Ofer the rest of the season and it will force Orr to change.
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I’m thinking ORR must be in back of his mind already looking around to see who might be available?

At minimum with zero doubt Bobby F needs to go back to QB coach or released.

OC & Special Teams, WR coaching would be the staff I’d replace if I were HC Thompson.

Time he shows his leadership and makes the tough choices. He’s worked a long time to be HC and if he wants to remain HC he needs to send message of what he will tolerate.

On another note… if he sees complete player rebellion away from this staff? Then it’s clean house time.

However I have big respect for RB and OL coaches. They seem to be the most solid.
 
HornetFootballFan said:
I’m thinking ORR must be in back of his mind already looking around to see who might be available?

At minimum with zero doubt Bobby F needs to go back to QB coach or released.

OC & Special Teams, WR coaching would be the staff I’d replace if I were HC Thompson.

Time he shows his leadership and makes the tough choices. He’s worked a long time to be HC and if he wants to remain HC he needs to send message of what he will tolerate.

On another note… if he sees complete player rebellion away from this staff? Then it’s clean house time.

However I have big respect for RB and OL coaches. They seem to be the most solid.
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Richardson is top notch. But he is no college HC.
 
HeavyistheClown said:
EWU was supposed to be a poor run defense. Tau T is a good back, but he is no Skatte Boo or Fulcher or Dotson.
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ETT is our best offensive weapon, Bobby needs to find ways to get him the ball. EWU clamped down on the run in the 2nd half and Bobby went full Bobby and started slinging the ball everywhere instead of finding alternative/creative ways to get ETT the ball (that screen pass that set up the late TD should have happened 25 minutes sooner).

I'd like to think Bobby will figure it out but he's making the same game planning/calling mistakes/patterns over and over again. Safe to say what we see is what we are going to get out of this offensive scheme/game calling from here on out. There's still a half of a season for Bobby to turn it around, but I'm not holding my breath.
 
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