talhadfoursteals said:
So, many may not give the Wildcats much of a chance this weekend (including me, depending on the time of day). However, after looking over all the stats, results, and strengths of each teams, I'm starting to see a silver-lining; the passing game. Weber beat UND last year because they finally decided after almost three quarters, to finally take advantage of UND's biggest weakness, pass defense. Also, they forced UND to beat us by passing. Yes, they have forced a lot of TOs through the air, but lets look at three games where UND struggled.
First: a 17-15 win over MSU in Bozeman. Tyler Bruggman, who is no longer starting for the Bobs, had 3 INTs in that game. Just one less and the Bobs probably pull out the W. How did MSU keep it close? They forced UND to pass. They took away the run.
Second: In a 31-24 win over Cal Poly in Dakota the Sioux forced Dano Graves into passing, something he isn't terrible at and is someone we will also have to face, but it isn't his forte. Multiple times Graves made passes that triple-option offenses don't routine make. Gotta give credit where credit is due. UND did a great job of limiting Cal Poly and forcing them to do something that they don't like to do, pass the ball. However, Cal Poly also recognized that by forcing UND into passing situations it takes them out of their comfort zone and causes hiccups in their offense.
Third: In a 28-21 win over ISU the Bengals packed the box and dared UND to pass the ball. UND still ended up with 206 yards of rushing offense. ISU is not good. The Bengals are inept, but still limited UND's ability to move the ball. whats more, the Bengals were able to put a lot of pressure Studsrud. ISU kept it close by throwing the ball and forcing the Sioux to throw also.
We have four common opponents: USD, MSU, SAC, and SUU. Against USD, the Sioux needed OT to win. MSU should have beaten the Sioux, while MSU didn't have a chance against Weber. Sac...well, neither team really had much of an issue dispatching the lowly Hornets, except the Sioux actually scored points and we didn't. I will say the Sac game came at the perfect time for Weber. After the USD debacle the Cats were trying to find some confidence. Thankfully, we got Sac. No matter, that game wasn't even close. Sac got across the 50 once on offense sans the TO. SUU well, we beat them in Cedar and they beat the T-birds in Dakota. Different monster SUU on the road and at home. Whereas, Weber is a decent road team.
What does this all mean...well, not much, I still feel the Cats have an up-hill battle starring them in the face on Saturday. Beating the Sioux in Dakota is going to take a Herculaneum effort. It can be done, but Weber can't piss down their legs for three quarters and then suddenly decide they want to play for 8 mins. Weber has to play a four quarter game. No dumb mistakes and take care of business in the trenches. This is going to be an old-fashioned football game.
It is worth noting that in the past 2 weeks Studsrud has passed for 6 TDs and run for 1. So our passing game has actually really improved since the beginning of the season. Studs will never throw for 400 yards in a game, but he has become the highly efficient QB that UND expected after last season.
For whatever reason UND started the season awful. The loss to SBU (blocked punt for a TD) doesn't look quite as bad with how SBU is playing, but UND's offense looked like they forgot to get on the plane to the game. The loss to FBS Bowling Green doesn't look as good with how bad BGSU has been this year; though I give the coach credit for going for the 2pt conversion and that win at the end of the game rather than XP and tie to go to OT.
Its been all uphill since then. After a terrible first half performance against USD, UND found its stride with a tremendous comeback. Even against MT St, our offense still wasn't clicking. Thank goodness for that D.
Ever since Cal Poly, UND has really started to look back to what was expected from them.
UND will need to limit the big plays this weekend, and I think they will scheme accordingly. Our pass defense is not amazing, but it is better than last season.
Here is my post from Siouxsports and prediction:
So pumped for Saturday! Big time game, and time for UND to take care of business. These are the kinds of situations this program has been waiting to be in. A lot of the stat categories are pretty comparable between these teams. I think UND needs to focus on three things:
1. Establishing the run - Weber St. does not have a great run D, but Idaho St wasn't supposed to either, and they did a pretty nice job, especially in the first half. I have to imagine last weekend, woke up the offensive line a bit. Hopefully Stockwell is feeling better, as it was really nice camera work to get him puking on the field.??? Also, need to be getting all of these RBs plenty of carries. Gordon has, more than, earned his time on the field.
2. Time of Possession - This goes hand in hand with running the ball. The key being we need to sustain drives. I believe it was the first of second drive of the 2nd half against Idaho St, when the (somewhat obnoxious) announcers, made a pretty big deal about UND having a roughly 8 minute drive. That kind of time will be crucial in giving our D a rest. Especially against another passing team, who "could" sustain some drives themselves.
3. Turnover Battle - Pretty clean game last weekend, I don't think either of Keaton's INT's this year have been poor throws, but have been deflected by the receivers. Not worried about him, also the RBs have done a better job of holding onto the ball. I was really surprised we didn't get any takeaways against Idaho St. given their turnover issues, but credit to them, they played a pretty clean game. I expect Weber's passing game and the addition a Reyes back into the lineup to create a few more turnovers this weekend. Would really like to hear Deion Harris's name called after such a hot start early in the season. If Weber is going to mimic Idaho St's 3 step drops and quick passes, I'd like to see our corners jump a few routes .... especially with Reyes back in to cover on the back end.
38 -24 UND!!!
However, even with a loss this week, the road to the playoffs looks possible for the Cats, especially with how our schedule ends up. Two games at home, in November, against a team that plays in a dome and one from Central California and to finish the season on the road against a struggling ISU team. I never overlook ISU. They always want to beat the Cats and would love nothing more to play spoiler to end the season.
