Will the Eags HOST the Big Sky Tourney....

[Rafter_Reese]

I think the answer is YES!!! A couple of obvious things need to happen first. First, we must WIN OUT by beating MSU (at home this Thursday), Montana (at home this Saturday), Idaho St. (road 03/05), Weber St. (road 03/07).

Next, Sac St. needs to lose at least one game in their remaining 3 games and I think they will. They play AT PSU on 02/28 and PSU is playing well right now. PSU just beat us and they are currently on a three game winning streak with some momentum. Plus, PSU only lost to Sac St. by 4 points two weeks ago AT Sac St. They will be playing AT PSU next Saturday. Even if Sac wins at PSU, I don't believe they're out of the woods. They play AT Southern Utah who recently beat a decent Idaho team and also gave EWU a run for their money. Let's say Sac wins both of those road games. I still think their toughest test will be their last game of the year AT Northern Arizona who might be the hottest team in the league right now winning 7 out of their last 8. I don't think Sac St. comes out of NAU with a win.

NAU has one more loss than us so if we win out we don't have to worry about them and if we take care of the GRIZ at home Saturday that will eliminate them from hosting. Not sure how the tie-breaker would go if Sac and EWU both win out.

All that being said, WE NEED TO WIN OUT and I believe we will host the Big Sky Tourney :nod: . Huge homestand this week. I love when Montana comes to town!!! This is going to be an exciting Big Sky finish. I love this time of year! Anything can happen!!!


From the Rafters....
go eags!

 

[LDopaPDX]

While I think Eastern has a lot to improve on before we start talking conference championship (playoffs?!?!?), I believe your scenario is incorrect. Eastern winning out alone would secure the home tourney assuming Montana also wins out sans beating us. If Eastern wins out, that'd make us 1-1 against Sac State and 2-0 against Montana, meaning no other team could have a better record against the top teams. The potential monkey wrench is if we win out, and Montana loses to us plus one other, and NAU runs. Then NAU would be the third team in the mix and we'd be 0-1 and miss out to a Sac State team with them same record.

 

[tomq04]

PLAYOFFS?!?!

 

[Rafter_Reese]

The bottom line is that the Eags need to win their last four games. I don't think Sac St. will win "ALL" of their last three games. That's my opinion. I think they will lose at least one, maybe two. PSU and NAU are playing great right now and Sac St. has to travel for both of those games. It wouldn't shock me if Southern Utah beat Sac either. There is a ton of parody in the Big Sky in my opinion. Especially the top 8 teams. I know that not all of the records in the Sky indicate parody but I believe there is parody. It's impressive that UM, Sac, and EWU all have 10 wins right now. Not because this is such an amazing league, but because anyone can beat anyone. Anyways, if the Eags win out and Sac loses one, that would put us on top going into the conference tourney.

WE WOULD HOST!!! :nod:

I've got a gut feeling on this one. I think it's gonna happen :thumb: . This Eags team is special.

From the Rafters,
go eags!

 

[GoldenEagle]

Yes, the EAGS will host the tourney. Harvey will get his mojo back and the team is getting back to good health. This stretch run will be fun to watch.

 

[Rafter_Reese]

Yes, the EAGS will host the tourney. Harvey will get his mojo back and the team is getting back to good health. This stretch run will be fun to watch.

I think what you said about good health is going to be key. It's amazing what kind of an impact Venky has defensively when he's in there. The guy is a walking fly swatter :bad: .

I know everyone is excited about the Montana game Saturday but we can't overlook an improving MSU team. They are playing much better lately. We need to show up with our A-Game Thursday.

From the Rafters....
go eags!

 

[EWUEagleEye]

*Edit; just learned they go on winning percentage against teams in descending order of finish rather than record so Eastern has to finish ahead of Sac St to host*

The scenario's aren't actually that bad if you look at them team by team for the top 4, they get more complex when you don't assume teams win out. The first tie breaker is head to head, the second is record against Big Sky teams in descending order of finish.

EWU: will host Big Sky Tourney with 4 wins, unless Sac State wins out.
Will host Big Sky with 3 wins if one of them is against Montana and Sac State loses at least 2
Will host Big Sky with 2 wins if one of them is against Montana and Sac State loses at least 2 and Montana loses 2 and NAU does not win 3 of 4 games.
Can only host the tournament with 1 more win in a wild very difficult to calculate multi-team tie breaker
Cannot host Big Sky if they do not win at least one game of the remaining four.
Record vs top 4 teams: Sac State 1-1; Montana 1-0; NAU 0-1
Remaining opponents: Montana State, Montana, @ Idaho State, @ Weber State

Sac State: Will host Big Sky Tourney with 3 wins
All of their scenarios lay out the same, They need to at least tie with Eastern Washington or Montana.
Record vs top 4 teams: EWU 1-1; Montana 1-0; NAU 1-0
Remaining opponents: @ Portland State, @ Southern Utah, @ Northern Arizona

Montana: Will host Big Sky Tourney with 3 wins and Sac State loses at least 1.
They must beat Eastern Washington to have any shot, they also need Sac State to lose one more.
Remaining opponents: @ Idaho, @ Eastern Washington, @ Montana State
Record vs top 4 teams: EWU 0-1; Sac St 0-1; NAU 1-0

NAU: Will host Big Sky Tourney with 4 wins and 1 loss by Eastern and Sac State and 2 losses by Montana.
Everyone else must collapse, the only 2 way tie breaker they win is with Eastern. They can split the series with Sac State and will win that two way tie breaker if Eastern finishes 3rd. They lose any two way tie with Montana.
Remaining opponents: @ North Dakota, @ Northern Colorado, Portland State, Sacramento State
Record vs top 4 teams: EWU 1-0; Sac State 0-1; Montana 0-1

 

[EWUEagleEye]

The best news may be that no team has yet gone on the SUU and NAU road trip and come away with two wins... so if Sac State manages it they will be the first team to do so.

 

[DPEagle83]

Just bought 2 tickets to Saturday game. Only seats left were in upper sections.

 

[clawman1]

Yes, the EAGS will host the tourney. Harvey will get his mojo back and the team is getting back to good health. This stretch run will be fun to watch.

Seems like it is more than good health. While Harvey and Jois have been injured the rest of the team is shooting badly as well. The NAU performance of 38% from the field and only 25% 3's was bad across the board and 75% FT's is below conference average. This team is much better than that.

 

[Rafter_Reese]

Just bought 2 tickets to Saturday game. Only seats left were in upper sections.

If that's the case, that game might sell out. I know quite a few people that are going that haven't bought their tickets yet. UM vs Eags is always a big draw.

Can't look past MSU though. They have the talent to beat us even though we all know they shouldn't. Another trap game. Eags have to show up.

From the Rafters....
go eags!

 

[EWUEagleEye]

I went through and figured most of the scenarios for Eastern to win the conference, and how they lose them. I wrote it all up on the blog http://bit.ly/1LDBGZL" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Bottom line:

Eastern loses any two way tie with Sac State or NAU.

Eastern wins a two way tie with Montana.

Eastern wins a 3 way tie with Montana and Sac State if they beat Montana Saturday and Sac State loses to NAU, if either of those two conditions is not met then Sac State ultimately wins.

Eastern loses a 3 way tie with Sac State and Northern Arizona Since they cannot have the best record among the 3 teams and lose any two way tie breaker.

Eastern loses a 3 way tie with Northern Arizona and Montana, since NAU would be 2-0 against the other teams.

Eastern loses any 4 way tie that I've figured out, since they would ultimately end up in a head to head tie breaker with Sac State.

 

[ClarkWGrizwald]

I went through and figured most of the scenarios for Eastern to win the conference, and how they lose them. I wrote it all up on the blog http://bit.ly/1LDBGZL" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Bottom line:

Eastern loses any two way tie with Sac State or NAU.

Eastern wins a two way tie with Montana.

Eastern wins a 3 way tie with Montana and Sac State if they beat Montana Saturday and Sac State loses to NAU, if either of those two conditions is not met then Sac State ultimately wins.

Eastern loses a 3 way tie with Sac State and Northern Arizona Since they cannot have the best record among the 3 teams and lose any two way tie breaker.

Eastern loses a 3 way tie with Northern Arizona and Montana, since NAU would be 2-0 against the other teams.

Eastern loses any 4 way tie that I've figured out, since they would ultimately end up in a head to head tie breaker with Sac State.

I'm not certain all of this is 100% accurate. For example, Eastern doesn't necessarily win a two way tie with Montana. Assuming UM beats Eastern this week (the most likely result for the two to end up tied) the conference title would depend on who finishes third. If Sac finishes 3rd, Eastern wins the title. If NAU finishes 3rd, Montana would win, based on a better head-to-head record vs. NAU.


Same story with 3 way ties. Only if Eastern beats Montana this weekend would they hold all tie-breaks against the Griz.

 

[marceagfan5]

Gotta love the Big Sky Scheduling...

Looking at the top 4 teams, the only ones that can win the conference, no one played everyone twice.

Eastern was the only team to play on the road against the other three contenders.

Eastern played NAU once, played UM and Sac twice
NAU played UM and EWU once, played Sac twice
UM played Sac and NAU once, played EWU twice
Sac played UM and NAU once, played EWU twice

Eastern drew the short end of the stick with the schedule this year....

 

[sacstateman]

Gotta love the Big Sky Scheduling...

Looking at the top 4 teams, the only ones that can win the conference, no one played everyone twice.

Eastern was the only team to play on the road against the other three contenders.

Eastern played NAU once, played UM and Sac twice
NAU played UM and EWU once, played Sac twice
UM played Sac and NAU once, played EWU twice
Sac played UM and NAU once, played EWU twice

Eastern drew the short end of the stick with the schedule this year....

Sac plays NAU twice.....EWU also doesn't have to make the longest road trip to NDU and NCU.....so much for short end of the stick.......the schedule is what it is.....it isn't fair to anyone......we only get to play Weber and ISU on the road and not at home.......etc. etc. etc.

 

[marceagfan5]

Gotta love the Big Sky Scheduling...

Looking at the top 4 teams, the only ones that can win the conference, no one played everyone twice.

Eastern was the only team to play on the road against the other three contenders.

Eastern played NAU once, played UM and Sac twice
NAU played UM and EWU once, played Sac twice
UM played Sac and NAU once, played EWU twice
Sac played UM and NAU once, played EWU twice

Eastern drew the short end of the stick with the schedule this year....

Sac plays NAU twice.....EWU also doesn't have to make the longest road trip to NDU and NCU.....so much for short end of the stick.......the schedule is what it is.....it isn't fair to anyone......we only get to play Weber and ISU on the road and not at home.......etc. etc. etc.

Ahh... Forgot sac played NAU on opening weekend. Eastern is still the only team of the top 4 to have to play all 3 of the others on the road.

Regardless nothing you can do about the scheduling it is what it is

 

[EWUEagleEye]

I went through and figured most of the scenarios for Eastern to win the conference, and how they lose them. I wrote it all up on the blog http://bit.ly/1LDBGZL" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Bottom line:

Eastern loses any two way tie with Sac State or NAU.

Eastern wins a two way tie with Montana.

Eastern wins a 3 way tie with Montana and Sac State if they beat Montana Saturday and Sac State loses to NAU, if either of those two conditions is not met then Sac State ultimately wins.

Eastern loses a 3 way tie with Sac State and Northern Arizona Since they cannot have the best record among the 3 teams and lose any two way tie breaker.

Eastern loses a 3 way tie with Northern Arizona and Montana, since NAU would be 2-0 against the other teams.

Eastern loses any 4 way tie that I've figured out, since they would ultimately end up in a head to head tie breaker with Sac State.

I'm not certain all of this is 100% accurate. For example, Eastern doesn't necessarily win a two way tie with Montana. Assuming UM beats Eastern this week (the most likely result for the two to end up tied) the conference title would depend on who finishes third. If Sac finishes 3rd, Eastern wins the title. If NAU finishes 3rd, Montana would win, based on a better head-to-head record vs. NAU.


Same story with 3 way ties. Only if Eastern beats Montana this weekend would they hold all tie-breaks against the Griz.

I think you are correct. When you start running out all the tie breaks its very easy to get lost in it. I had somehow switched Montana's win over NAU for a loss... this change actually makes a huge difference for the Eagles, but at the end of the day the Eagles really need to win as many games as possible and absolutely must beat Montana... well almost absolutely ;-)

 

[Rafter_Reese]

Keep an eye on the Sac vs PSU game tomorrow night. Vegas has PSU as a 2 point favorite right now. I think it will be a 1 to 2 point game either way.

 

[sacstateman]

Keep an eye on the Sac vs PSU game tomorrow night. Vegas has PSU as a 2 point favorite right now. I think it will be a 1 to 2 point game either way.

In a one to two point game I like our chances.....our record is pretty good in close games due to our experienced guard play.....still have to play the game and see what happens..

 

[Rafter_Reese]

As much as I hate to rely on Southern Utah, at least they have something to play for. They're trying to catch Weber St. for the 8th and final tourney birth. I'm sure Sac will probably take their best shot and I can see Southern Utah knocking them off. Would it be shocking? Yes. Impossible? No! If they somehow pull off the win we're back in business. I still think NAU is going to knock off Sac last game of the regular season. Stranger things have happened....

From the Rafters....
go eags!