2017 FCS Playoff Projection 10/29

[SWeberCat02]

Any guesses as to why Weber (8-2/6-1) has led and continues to lead SUU (8-2/6-1) in both polls? I haven't understood that for much of the season. It's not tough to see that SUU is legit and questionable call or not, the Thunderturds beat the Wildkitties decisively H2H, in Ogden no less. I think an argument can be made that Weber has a very slightly tougher SOS, coming from a tougher BSC slate and OOC being a push or slightly in favor of SUU

The polls seem to more accurately rank a similar comparison between EWU (6-4/5-2) and UM (7-3/5-2) with Eastern leading in both polls, having a stronger SOS (IMO) and having won a H2H. An interesting observation: in the last 8 games for each, both are 6-2 with EWU losing to WSU & SUU, and UM losing to WSU & EWU.

The polls are crap. I don't think the selection committee gives them much weight.

 

[SWeberCat02]

http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2017-11-09/james-madison-remains-no-1-jacksonville-state-jumps-no-2-final-fcs

Here is the committee's final top 10 (Nov 9) and each team's Nov 11 result:

1 James Madison (beat Richmond 20-13)
2 Jacksonville State (beat Tenn-Martin 14-7)
3 Central Arkansas (beat Incarnate Word 56-10)
4 North Dakota State (beat #9 South Dakota 49-14)
5 Sam Houston State (beat Abilene Christian 44-35)
6 Elon (lost to New Hampshire 6-16)
7 South Dakota State (beat Illinois St 27-24 in OT)
8 Wofford (beat VMI 45-14)
9 South Dakota (lost to #4 North Dakota St 14-49)
10 North Carolina A&T (beat Savannah St 36-17)

 

[n.ogdencat]

http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2017-11-09/james-madison-remains-no-1-jacksonville-state-jumps-no-2-final-fcs

Here is the committee's final top 10 (Nov 9) and each team's Nov 11 result:

1 James Madison (beat Richmond 20-13)
2 Jacksonville State (beat Tenn-Martin 14-7)
3 Central Arkansas (beat Incarnate Word 56-10)
4 North Dakota State (beat #9 South Dakota 49-14)
5 Sam Houston State (beat Abilene Christian 44-35)
6 Elon (lost to New Hampshire 6-16)
7 South Dakota State (beat Illinois St 27-24 in OT)
8 Wofford (beat VMI 45-14)
9 South Dakota (lost to #4 North Dakota St 14-49)
10 North Carolina A&T (beat Savannah St 36-17)

Good news is that there are a couple of teams on this list that are going to lose this weekend. Just curious...I wish we could see if Weber was right there. Maybe nobody gets a seed in the Sky.

 

[SWeberCat02]

http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2017-11-09/james-madison-remains-no-1-jacksonville-state-jumps-no-2-final-fcs

Here is the committee's final top 10 (Nov 9) and each team's Nov 11 result:

1 James Madison (beat Richmond 20-13)
2 Jacksonville State (beat Tenn-Martin 14-7)
3 Central Arkansas (beat Incarnate Word 56-10)
4 North Dakota State (beat #9 South Dakota 49-14)
5 Sam Houston State (beat Abilene Christian 44-35)
6 Elon (lost to New Hampshire 6-16)
7 South Dakota State (beat Illinois St 27-24 in OT)
8 Wofford (beat VMI 45-14)
9 South Dakota (lost to #4 North Dakota St 14-49)
10 North Carolina A&T (beat Savannah St 36-17)

Good news is that there are a couple of teams on this list that are going to lose this weekend. Just curious...I wish we could see if Weber was right there. Maybe nobody gets a seed in the Sky.

If you assume Elon and South Dakota fell out with last weekend's losses, and North Carolina A&T should be going to the Celebration Bowl, that leaves 7 of these teams in the top 10. Big Sky fans should be rooting for James Madison to beat Elon this weekend. That would keep Elon from getting a seed. South Dakota St plays at South Dakota. If South Dakota loses they're out of seed contention. A South Dakota St loss would put them on the bubble for a seed. Wofford should lose at South Carolina but losing to an FBS team probably wouldn't take them out of contention for a seed, but would definitely put them on the bubble. I like the Big Sky's chances of getting a 7 or 8 seed.

Games this weekend:

James Madison @ Elon (8-2)
Tenn St (6-4) @ Jacksonville St
Abilene Christian (2-8) @ Central Ark
N Dakota St @ Illinois St (6-4)
Houston Baptist (1-9) @ Sam Houston St
South Dakota St @ South Dakota (7-3)
Wofford @ South Carolina (FBS)

 

[oldrunner]

NAU will be highly, highly motivated to win at SUU Saturday. If they were to lose, there is a good chance that they would be left out of post season play. An NAU loss opens the door for UM and maybe even EWU and SacSt. A SUU loss does not do the same for them. They are likely in, regardless.

I'm sure that UM is sending SUU their whole playbook, prayers, best wishes and anything else that might tip the scales. They are probably putting voodoo curses on NAU at the same time. Any way you cut it, there will likely be two or three BSC teams left out, and feeling cheated.

There might be enough good Ju-Ju coming from Wildcat Nation to put NAU over the top. Not that any of that really matters. :lol: :lol:

 

[SWWeatherCat]

SUU will not have any troubles with motivation themselves. They are hungry for a BSC title, potential seed or home game, and are probably pissed off that after accomplishing their year-long mission of exacting revenge on Weber, they may still have to share a BSC title with them and may get the short end of the seeding/ranking stick.

 

[oldrunner]

Yes. That SUU/NAU game should be intense.

 

[SWWeatherCat]

Well, Tennessee St. played #2 Jacksonville St. well up until a few minutes before halftime, then it was all #2 from then on. SE Louisiana came back in the 3rd quarter to upset #26 Nicholls.

 

[WILDCAT]

Well, Tennessee St. played #2 Jacksonville St. well up until a few minutes before halftime, then it was all #2 from then on. SE Louisiana came back in the 3rd quarter to upset #26 Nicholls.

Loss may have eliminated Nicholls, they are still 8-3 but with the log jam that is 8-3 and 7-4 teams looking to get in they may have hurt their chances

 

[mt jack]

Yes. That SUU/NAU game should be intense.

NAU's athletic director, who fired/not fired Jerome Souers, just bolted from NAU to UT - San Antonio. NAU's president seemed surprised by the move. My hope is this all pisses off NAU players providing them with just a bit of motivation.

The series vs. SUU hasn't gone well for NAU recently with 1 win in the past 6 meetings. At least two of those losses kept NAU out of the playoffs. I'm hopeful but prepared to have my heart broken yet again.

 

[SWWeatherCat]

MSU over UM doesn't surprise me at all, I thought the Bobs were the better team all season. I just realized or remembered that the Thunderturds didn't play either of the Montanas this year.

Speaking of SUU, it looks like they are starting to take charge over NAU as I suspected they would. NAU can't handle SUU's very solid defense, similar to what I would anticipate with a NAU/WSU matchup.

 

[AlumniWSU]

Well, since no one wants to say it...SUU's 4 TD margin win over NAU will be impressive to the selection committee(??)...so the co-champs will likely get the BSC auto-bid over Weber St. and a bye, right??

Likelihood that SUU gets a seed, Weber St. hosts San Diego in 1st round?? Comments??

Any info on the coverage of the selection/seeding make up for the FCS football playoffs?? On TV??

I know, questions, questions, questions...I'm excited & CONGRATS TO THE WEBER STATE WILDCATS - coaches & players, you have earned a big high five!!! :notworthy:

 

[SWeberCat02]

10 Auto-Bids

Southern Utah (Big Sky)
Kennesaw St (Big South)
James Madison (CAA)
North Dakota St (MVFC)
Central Connecticut (NEC)
Jacksonville St (OVC)
Lehigh (Patriot)
San Diego (PFL)
Wofford (SoCon)
Central Arkansas (Southland)

 

[WILDCAT]

Well, since no one wants to say it...SUU's 4 TD margin win over NAU will be impressive to the selection committee(??)...so the co-champs will likely get the BSC auto-bid over Weber St. and a bye, right??

Likelihood that SUU gets a seed, Weber St. hosts San Diego in 1st round?? Comments??

Any info on the coverage of the selection/seeding make up for the FCS football playoffs?? On TV??

I know, questions, questions, questions...I'm excited & CONGRATS TO THE WEBER STATE WILDCATS - coaches & players, you have earned a big high five!!! :notworthy:

I think it's likely that Southern Utah gets a seed over us though not unlikely that we could get one too however I am willing to bet we will get San Diego at home next Saturday

 

[oldrunner]

Okay, we are all fairly sure that WSU and SUU are in. Seeds and home games yet to be decided. After that, who else in the BSC will get selected?

UM lost and appears to be out. Is it NAU, SacSt, or EWU?

Is this a year when only two of our teams get in? Is this a year when 4 teams get in?

SacSt's win over SUU is looking big about now.

Who plays on and who gets snubbed?

We should know a lot of this shortly after 9:00AM, tomorrow.

 

[SWeberCat02]

At-Large Locks (7)

Weber St (Big Sky)
Stony Brook (CAA)
Elon (CAA)
South Dakota St (MVFC)
Western Illinois (MVFC)
Samford (Southern)
Sam Houston St (Southland)

At-Large Bubble for the last 7 bids

(Big Sky)
Northern Arizona 7-4
Eastern Washington 7-4
Sacramento St 7-4
Montana 7-4

(Big South)
Monmouth 9-2

(CAA)
Delaware 7-4
New Hampshire 7-4

(MVFC)
Northern Iowa 7-4
South Dakota 7-4

(OVC)
Austin Peay 8-4

(Southern)
Furman 8-3

(Southland)
Nicholls 8-3
McNeese 9-2

 

[SWeberCat02]

Well, since no one wants to say it...SUU's 4 TD margin win over NAU will be impressive to the selection committee(??)...so the co-champs will likely get the BSC auto-bid over Weber St. and a bye, right??

Likelihood that SUU gets a seed, Weber St. hosts San Diego in 1st round?? Comments??

Any info on the coverage of the selection/seeding make up for the FCS football playoffs?? On TV??

I know, questions, questions, questions...I'm excited & CONGRATS TO THE WEBER STATE WILDCATS - coaches & players, you have earned a big high five!!! :notworthy:

Selection Committee has nothing to do with the auto-bids, the conferences decide those. SUU gets the auto-bid by beating Weber head-to-head. Byes are given to the 8 seeded teams, which are selected by the committee. Auto-bid or At-Large doesn't mean anything for seeding, committee will select the top 8 teams of all 24 for seeds.

Selection Show is on ESPNU tomorrow morning at 9 AM Mountain Time.

 

[SWeberCat02]

I think these 6 are locks for seeds, in descending order

1. James Madison
2. Jacksonville St
3. Central Arkansas
4. North Dakota St
5. Sam Houston St
6. South Dakota St

 

[oldrunner]

Well, since no one wants to say it...SUU's 4 TD margin win over NAU will be impressive to the selection committee(??)...so the co-champs will likely get the BSC auto-bid over Weber St. and a bye, right??

Likelihood that SUU gets a seed, Weber St. hosts San Diego in 1st round?? Comments??

Any info on the coverage of the selection/seeding make up for the FCS football playoffs?? On TV??

I know, questions, questions, questions...I'm excited & CONGRATS TO THE WEBER STATE WILDCATS - coaches & players, you have earned a big high five!!! :notworthy:

Selection Committee has nothing to do with the auto-bids, the conferences decide those. SUU gets the auto-bid by beating Weber head-to-head. Byes are given to the 8 seeded teams, which are selected by the committee. Auto-bid or At-Large doesn't mean anything for seeding, committee will select the top 8 teams of all 24 for seeds.

Selection Show is on ESPNU tomorrow morning at 9 AM Mountain Time.

First thing? Who is in. Second thing? Seeds. Third thing? How to bracket the seeds. Fourth thing? Who hosts, and what would the second round considerations be.

My guess is that it will be tough for 7-4 teams to make the field. There may not be many of them. UM, being the 6th place team in the BSC, is likely out. After that, it will come down to good wins and bad losses. It may also come down to east coast politics.