2017 FCS Playoff Projection 10/29

[WILDCAT]

Besides rooting for our Wildcats this weekend, it would behoove us Weber fans to cheer for some others as well such as...

NAU over SUU- An NAU win over SUU could be our best shot at a seed.

James Madison over Elon- Despite losing last weekend Elon is still ahead of us in the polls. Another Elon loss would be nice.

Maine over Stony Brook- A lot of bracketologists have Stony Brook having a better chance at getting a seed than us.

North Dakota State over Illinois State- The playoff committee loves the MVFC, any MVFC loss is a good loss.

Southern Illinois over Western Illinois- Again any MVFC loss is a good one.

South Dakota State vs South Dakota- In all reality either could lose and it would be good

Indiana State @ Northern Iowa- This is about as likely to happen as me winning the power ball.


Any of these losses could help Weber come selection Sunday, some are more likely to happen than others but any would be appreciated :mrgreen:

 

[n.ogdencat]

I don't know why everyone is expecting SUU to get a Seed if we both end up tied. Lets remember what happened in 2008. Didn't Weber and Montana end up tied? Didn't Weber win the head to head? Who got the seed and who didn't?

 

[SWeberCat02]

I don't know why everyone is expecting SUU to get a Seed if we both end up tied. Lets remember what happened in 2008. Didn't Weber and Montana end up tied? Didn't Weber win the head to head? Who got the seed and who didn't?

2008 is ancient history, but UM was 11-1 that season, with their only loss being to Weber in Ogden. They ended up making the championship game. Weber was 9-3. I remember being pissed at the time, but looking back, I can understand why UM got the seed.

SUU's resume is better. In non-conference they beat two FCS teams from quality conferences, including a ranked N Iowa team. Most importantly, SUU beat Weber head to head on the road, and earned the auto-bid with it. Weber's non-conference win at Sac St looks like a solid win now, but the MT Western game really hurts Weber's SOS. Another FCS game would have really helped Weber. And I don't think the committee will look that closely at the Cal loss. They won't bother to see or consider that Weber could have won that game. They'll just look at it as a L. And in the same way, I don't think they'll look that closely at the Weber loss to SUU. They'll just look at it as a loss, probably not even knowing, or caring, that Weber was without Cantwell for much of the game.

 

[n.ogdencat]

I don't know why everyone is expecting SUU to get a Seed if we both end up tied. Lets remember what happened in 2008. Didn't Weber and Montana end up tied? Didn't Weber win the head to head? Who got the seed and who didn't?

2008 is ancient history, but UM was 11-1 that season, with their only loss being to Weber in Ogden. They ended up making the championship game. Weber was 9-3. I remember being pissed at the time, but looking back, I can understand why UM got the seed.

SUU's resume is better. In non-conference they beat two FCS teams from quality conferences, including a ranked N Iowa team. Most importantly, SUU beat Weber head to head on the road, and earned the auto-bid with it. Weber's non-conference win at Sac St looks like a solid win now, but the MT Western game really hurts Weber's SOS. Another FCS game would have really helped Weber. And I don't think the committee will look that closely at the Cal loss. They won't bother to see or consider that Weber could have won that game. They'll just look at it as a L. And in the same way, I don't think they'll look that closely at the Weber loss to SUU. They'll just look at it as a loss, probably not even knowing, or caring, that Weber was without Cantwell for much of the game.

The same thing applies in 2017 that applied in 2008; rankings matter: http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs
Weber is #9 and SUU is #18.

Also, North Carolina A&T and Grambling aren't playoff eligible due to their conferences affiliation with the Celebration Bowl (personally, I would rather participate in a playoff, but $$$ talks).

 

[SWeberCat02]

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2017DIMFBL_PreChampsManual_20170914.pdf

NCAA SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM (NCAA SRS)

The NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee will use the NCAA Simple Rating System (NCAA SRS) as a tool for evaluating teams for selection into the 24-team championship.

The NCAA SRS is a ranking system used to gauge team quality. Within the NCAA SRS, the rating of a team will be calculated largely by two components: a strength-of-schedule measure (SOS) and a win-loss differential (WL).

A team’s SOS measure is simply the average NCAA SRS rating of that team’s opponents for the season.

A team’s WL measure factors whether a game was won or lost; the location of the game (home/away/neutral site); and the NCAA (sub)division of the opponent.

1. In a game between two FCS teams played at a neutral site, the winning team gets one point and the losing team loses one point.

2. In a game between two FCS teams played at a non-neutral site, a home win counts 0.75 for the home team and -0.75 for the losing team. A road team win counts 1.25 for the visiting team and -1.25 for the home team. In other words, there is a bonus/penalty of +/- 0.25 for the home/away teams depending on the outcome.

3. An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division I opponents. For instance, a home FCS win against a Division II opponent counts only as +0.65 points (0.75 for a home win - 0.1 penalty for playing a Division II opponent). In addition, a road FCS win against an FBS opponent counts +1.35 points for the FCS team (1.25 points for a road win + 0.1 bonus for beating an FBS opponent).

4. The WL measure is then doubled to equalize the contributions of the WL factor and SOS factor toward a team’s NCAA SRS rating.

5. Margin of victory will be factored into a team’s NCAA SRS rating. This component is capped at 21 points.

The teams’ ratings are independent in that one team’s rating depends on its opponents’ ratings, which depend on their opponents’ ratings, etc., based on the “network” of college football games played each week during the football season. The NCAA SRS will also standardize the data in order to equalize the variance in total number of games played (i.e., 11 or 12 regular-season games).

Games against Division III or non-NCAA opponents are not factored into any team’s NCAA SRS rating.

The time of the season in which a game is played (early-season versus late-season games) is also not factored into a team’s NCAA SRS rating.

The NCAA SRS will not “force select” any teams into the championship; rather, it is one of several resources that the Division I Football Championship Committee will have at its disposal when debating the merits of teams under consideration for championship selection.

The NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee will begin reviewing NCAA SRS data during the later portion of the football season as it prepares for championship selections. At that time, NCAA SRS rankings may also be posted on the NCAA website (www.ncaa.com/fcs).

 

[SWWeatherCat]

NCAA SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM (NCAA SRS)

The NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee will use the NCAA Simple Rating System (NCAA SRS) as a tool for evaluating teams for selection into the 24-team championship.

Ouch! Just looking at these teams we're most familiar with it's apparent that "Simple" is derived from simpleton! How in thee L can this represent a useful tool for team selection? If EWU and UND are head-scratches, then :wtf: is CP?
02. EWU
08. UND
18. CP
20. SUU
27. WSU
29. UM
39. NAU
44. UNC

 

[SWeberCat02]

Remembering that SRS is only "one of several resources that the Division I Football Championship Committee will have at its disposal when debating the merits of teams under consideration for championship selection," here is a look at last season's SRS rankings for teams that were selected to the playoffs:

1. (2.00 SRS) North Dakota St: At-Large, #1 Seed
2. (1.91) Eastern Wash.: Auto-Bid, #2 Seed
3. (1.36) Jacksonville St.: Auto-Bid, #3 Seed
4. (1.35) Sam Houston St.: Auto-Bid, #5 Seed
5. (1.22) South Dakota St.: Auto-Bid, #8 Seed
6. (1.22) The Citadel: Auto-Bid, #6 Seed
7. (1.09) James Madison: Auto-Bid, #4 Seed
8. (1.05) North Dakota: At-Large, #7 Seed
9. (1.03) Central Ark.: At-Large, Hosted
10. (1.02) Youngstown St.: At-Large, Hosted

12. (0.86) Charleston So.: Auto-Bid
13. (0.86) Lehigh: Auto-Bid
14. (0.81) Chattanooga: At-Large, Hosted

16. (0.72) Villanova: At-Large, Hosted
17. (0.70) Wofford: At-Large, Hosted
18. (0.68) Cal Poly: At-Large, Hosted

21. (0.48) Richmond: At-Large, Hosted
22. (0.46) Illinois St.: At-Large

24. (0.45) Samford: At-Large

26. (0.40) San Diego: Auto-Bid
27. (0.34) Weber St.: At-Large
28. (0.29) N.C. A&T: At-Large

30. (0.24) New Hampshire: At-Large, Hosted

48. (-0.13) Saint Francis (PA): Auto-Bid

#11 Coastal Caro. was an independent transitioning to FBS
#15 Grambling is in the SWAC, which doesn't participate in the playoffs
#23 Princeton is in the Ivy, which doesn't participate in the playoffs

 

[SWeberCat02]

NCAA SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM (NCAA SRS)

The NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee will use the NCAA Simple Rating System (NCAA SRS) as a tool for evaluating teams for selection into the 24-team championship.

Ouch! Just looking at these teams we're most familiar with it's apparent that "Simple" is derived from simpleton! How in thee L can this represent a useful tool for team selection? If EWU and UND are head-scratches, then :wtf: is CP?
02. EWU
08. UND
18. CP
20. SUU
27. WSU
29. UM
39. NAU
44. UNC

That was last season's. This season's hasn't been released yet.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Remembering that SRS is only "one of several resources that the Division I Football Championship Committee will have at its disposal when debating the merits of teams under consideration for championship selection," here is a look at last season's SRS rankings for teams that were selected to the playoffs:

1. (2.00 SRS) North Dakota St: At-Large, #1 Seed
2. (1.91) Eastern Wash.: Auto-Bid, #2 Seed
3. (1.36) Jacksonville St.: Auto-Bid, #3 Seed
4. (1.35) Sam Houston St.: Auto-Bid, #5 Seed
5. (1.22) South Dakota St.: Auto-Bid, #8 Seed
6. (1.22) The Citadel: Auto-Bid, #6 Seed
7. (1.09) James Madison: Auto-Bid, #4 Seed
8. (1.05) North Dakota: At-Large, #7 Seed
9. (1.03) Central Ark.: At-Large, Hosted
10. (1.02) Youngstown St.: At-Large, Hosted

12. (0.86) Charleston So.: Auto-Bid
13. (0.86) Lehigh: Auto-Bid
14. (0.81) Chattanooga: At-Large, Hosted

16. (0.72) Villanova: At-Large, Hosted
17. (0.70) Wofford: At-Large, Hosted
18. (0.68) Cal Poly: At-Large, Hosted

21. (0.48) Richmond: At-Large, Hosted
22. (0.46) Illinois St.: At-Large

24. (0.45) Samford: At-Large

26. (0.40) San Diego: Auto-Bid
27. (0.34) Weber St.: At-Large
28. (0.29) N.C. A&T: At-Large

30. (0.24) New Hampshire: At-Large, Hosted

48. (-0.13) Saint Francis (PA): Auto-Bid

#11 Coastal Caro. was an independent transitioning to FBS
#15 Grambling is in the SWAC, which doesn't participate in the playoffs
#23 Princeton is in the Ivy, which doesn't participate in the playoffs

The top 8 got the 8 seeds, suggesting to me that SRS is the major factor in determining seeds.

 

[SWeberCat02]

I don't know why everyone is expecting SUU to get a Seed if we both end up tied. Lets remember what happened in 2008. Didn't Weber and Montana end up tied? Didn't Weber win the head to head? Who got the seed and who didn't?

2008 is ancient history, but UM was 11-1 that season, with their only loss being to Weber in Ogden. They ended up making the championship game. Weber was 9-3. I remember being pissed at the time, but looking back, I can understand why UM got the seed.

SUU's resume is better. In non-conference they beat two FCS teams from quality conferences, including a ranked N Iowa team. Most importantly, SUU beat Weber head to head on the road, and earned the auto-bid with it. Weber's non-conference win at Sac St looks like a solid win now, but the MT Western game really hurts Weber's SOS. Another FCS game would have really helped Weber. And I don't think the committee will look that closely at the Cal loss. They won't bother to see or consider that Weber could have won that game. They'll just look at it as a L. And in the same way, I don't think they'll look that closely at the Weber loss to SUU. They'll just look at it as a loss, probably not even knowing, or caring, that Weber was without Cantwell for much of the game.

The same thing applies in 2017 that applied in 2008; rankings matter: http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs
Weber is #9 and SUU is #18.

Also, North Carolina A&T and Grambling aren't playoff eligible due to their conferences affiliation with the Celebration Bowl (personally, I would rather participate in a playoff, but $$$ talks).

They may play a limited role, but we all know how screwed up the two polls are, so I think other factors, like SRS, are much more important in the selection process.

 

[SWWeatherCat]

NCAA SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM (NCAA SRS)

The NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee will use the NCAA Simple Rating System (NCAA SRS) as a tool for evaluating teams for selection into the 24-team championship.

Ouch! Just looking at these teams we're most familiar with it's apparent that "Simple" is derived from simpleton! How in thee L can this represent a useful tool for team selection? If EWU and UND are head-scratches, then :wtf: is CP?
02. EWU
08. UND
18. CP
20. SUU
27. WSU
29. UM
39. NAU
44. UNC

That was last season's. This season's hasn't been released yet.

Thanks, just noticed that (Last Updated - November 20, 2016). Now it doesn't seem as ridiculous

 

[hawkssb04]

Best path to a seed? NAU beats SUU this week and we take care of business against ISU. If that happens, Weber gets a seed.

We have to absolutely drub ISU and hope for the SUU loss (in a close one). If NAU blows out SUU, which isn't likely, that wouldn't bode well for a seed for us. However, I strongly believe that regardless of what happens this week, Weber will NOT host an opening-round playoff game.

 

[hawkssb04]

I don't know why everyone is expecting SUU to get a Seed if we both end up tied. Lets remember what happened in 2008. Didn't Weber and Montana end up tied? Didn't Weber win the head to head? Who got the seed and who didn't?

Montana got the seed, and we went on the road at Cal Poly. Beat them (who many thought would run the table and win it all), and then got sent back on the road to Montana. Don't count on anything being "fair" when it comes to seeding or hosting. It's all about money at the end of the day.

 

[WILDCAT]

Best path to a seed? NAU beats SUU this week and we take care of business against ISU. If that happens, Weber gets a seed.

We have to absolutely drub ISU and hope for the SUU loss (in a close one). If NAU blows out SUU, which isn't likely, that wouldn't bode well for a seed for us. However, I strongly believe that regardless of what happens this week, Weber will NOT host an opening-round playoff game.

The only way I see Weber hosting a first round game is if San Diego is matched up with us. However should NAU make the playoffs I can see the committee sending San Diego to Northern Arizona. NAU is afterall much closer to San Diego than we are and the NCAA is notorious for creating as little travel as possible, hence why Cal Poly got USD last year and we did not.

 

[the dan]

I would love for Weber to host San Diego during a late November snowstorm.

 

[SWWeatherCat]

I would love for Weber to host San Diego during a late November snowstorm.

:twisted: :agree: :twisted:

 

[SWWeatherCat]

Any guesses as to why Weber (8-2/6-1) has led and continues to lead SUU (8-2/6-1) in both polls? I haven't understood that for much of the season. It's not tough to see that SUU is legit and questionable call or not, the Thunderturds beat the Wildkitties decisively H2H, in Ogden no less. I think an argument can be made that Weber has a very slightly tougher SOS, coming from a tougher BSC slate and OOC being a push or slightly in favor of SUU

The polls seem to more accurately rank a similar comparison between EWU (6-4/5-2) and UM (7-3/5-2) with Eastern leading in both polls, having a stronger SOS (IMO) and having won a H2H. An interesting observation: in the last 8 games for each, both are 6-2 with EWU losing to WSU & SUU, and UM losing to WSU & EWU.

 

[oldrunner]

Any guesses as to why Weber (8-2/6-1) has led and continues to lead SUU (8-2/6-1) in both polls? I haven't understood that for much of the season. It's not tough to see that SUU is legit and questionable call or not, the Thunderturds beat the Wildkitties decisively H2H, in Ogden no less. I think an argument can be made that Weber has a very slightly tougher SOS, coming from a tougher BSC slate and OOC being a push or slightly in favor of SUU

The polls seem to more accurately rank a similar comparison between EWU (6-4/5-2) and UM (7-3/5-2) with Eastern leading in both polls, having a stronger SOS (IMO) and having won a H2H. An interesting observation: in the last 8 games for each, both are 6-2 with EWU losing to WSU & SUU, and UM losing to WSU & EWU.

I think that SUUs loss to Sac is hurting them the most.

 

[WILDCAT]

Any guesses as to why Weber (8-2/6-1) has led and continues to lead SUU (8-2/6-1) in both polls? I haven't understood that for much of the season. It's not tough to see that SUU is legit and questionable call or not, the Thunderturds beat the Wildkitties decisively H2H, in Ogden no less. I think an argument can be made that Weber has a very slightly tougher SOS, coming from a tougher BSC slate and OOC being a push or slightly in favor of SUU

The polls seem to more accurately rank a similar comparison between EWU (6-4/5-2) and UM (7-3/5-2) with Eastern leading in both polls, having a stronger SOS (IMO) and having won a H2H. An interesting observation: in the last 8 games for each, both are 6-2 with EWU losing to WSU & SUU, and UM losing to WSU & EWU.

I think that SUUs loss to Sac is hurting them the most.

That and the fact that Weber has been in the polls longer than SUU, and since that SUU loss Weber has kept winning as has SUU and the pollsters don't usually leapfrog teams who win over other teams who win.

 

[WILDCAT]

According to the latest ask the A.D. Jerry Bovee claimed that Weber has already submitted a bid to host a first round game and that it was a substantially larger bid than last year's. Here's hoping.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9jNQftnidQ