Maine @ Weber St

[Mainebrother]

Weber is a 5.5 point favorite.

So was Jacksonville State in Orono no less. They were a 3 point favorite to beat Maine...
I guess that tells you what good predicitons will do. I say leave it on the field. Other teams
have underestimated Maine as well...they predicted Maine 8th in the CAA this year...

 

[n.ogdencat]

Mainefutball welcome to the forum! Always fun talking sports with opposing team fans. Maine is a good team. Everyone left are good teams and want to continue advancing. Should be a heck of a game this Friday. One thing is for certain it's going to be cold.

There is something I find odd. If you watched Weber vs. Sac did you come out to Ogden? Weber played Sac at home. Yes, you are right Weber didn't play well and Sac came amped. Their former coach was at one time the Weber coach and he didn't want to lose. All of our games against the Hornets have been close the last few years. That's Weber State Football honestly.

 

[Mainebrother]

Mainefutball welcome to the forum! Always fun talking sports with opposing team fans. Maine is a good team. Everyone left are good teams and want to continue advancing. Should be a heck of a game this Friday. One thing is for certain it's going to be cold.

There is something I find odd. If you watched Weber vs. Sac did you come out to Ogden? Weber played Sac at home. Yes, you are right Weber didn't play well and Sac came amped. Their former coach was at one time the Weber coach and he didn't want to lose. All of our games against the Hornets have been close the last few years. That's Weber State Football honestly.

No I saw them on TV from Sacramento. I did see Weber down at Cap Poly down near Morro Bay which
is one of my most favorite places. Have seen a couple games over at U.C. Davis. Sacramento State is not very good at least this year. I have been relatively impressed with U.C. Davis but I guess EWU may have them for lunch this Saturday...

We do have a very decent band but I don't think they will be coming...

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=maine%20stein%20song%20on%20youtube&view=detail&mid=183DED5DCE72B5C1FF4A183DED5DCE72B5C1FF4A&FORM=VIRE

We also have a famous Maine Grad Rudy Valle who later went on to star in Hollywood in the 1930's.

www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Rudy+Vallee+Maine+Stein+Song&&view=detail&mid=67FA491DFADB0FC4CF9C67FA491DFADB0FC4CF9C&&FORM=VRDGAR

 

[SWWeatherCat]

Mainefutball welcome to the forum! Always fun talking sports with opposing team fans. Maine is a good team. Everyone left are good teams and want to continue advancing. Should be a heck of a game this Friday. One thing is for certain it's going to be cold.

There is something I find odd. If you watched Weber vs. Sac did you come out to Ogden? Weber played Sac at home. Yes, you are right Weber didn't play well and Sac came amped. Their former coach was at one time the Weber coach and he didn't want to lose. All of our games against the Hornets have been close the last few years. That's Weber State Football honestly.

Not to mention Weber has been somewhat of a work-in-progess in my opinion, losing 3 to the NFL from last season. Although both sides of the ball have been coming along, this is especially true for the offense. Hill's team loves physical, grind-it-out football and has found success with it. Big offensive shows aren't their MO but the offense has improved greatly from the first half of the season making Weber a little better rounded team.

Oh, and @Mainefutball, Weber -6 (now) is a betting spread, not any "team underestimating Maine." Jacksonville St./Maine was pretty close to a tossup, even with the @Maine/weather advantage so good on Maine for the big win. The last two weeks I watched some of Jacksonville's games and was not impressed with their defense. You're sorely mistaken if you think that's the same kind of D Maine will face @Weber. Maine will have totally shocked me and more than likely won easily if they come close to 42 pts in the game, let alone a half. Weber has given up 21ppg this season and 18ppg the previous season. The two highest opponent scores the last two years is 41 by PAC-12 runner-up Utah, and 33 by a PAC-12 Cal team, both of course on the road in warm, good weather.

I'm not predicting a Weber win but certainly believe they are capable of it. In fact, I've questioned their rank/seed and hoped they are as good as they are regarded. They are the best version of themselves so far this season, have advantages being the home team, and have a stellar defense capable of keeping them in position to have a chance to win almost any game. I like their chances.

 

[the dan]

Weber is a 5.5 point favorite.

So was Jacksonville State in Orono no less. They were a 3 point favorite to beat Maine...
I guess that tells you what good predicitons will do. I say leave it on the field. Other teams
have underestimated Maine as well...they predicted Maine 8th in the CAA this year...

Ugh. It’s a point spread, not a prediction. :blah:

 

[Mainebrother]

Congratulations to Chris Ferguson who has been named the @CFPerformance FCS National Performer of the Week!

- 5 TDs
- UMaine Playoff School-Record for TDs in a game
- First home playoff win in UMaine history

#BlackBearNation | #BearWitness | #FCSPlayoffs

 

[WSUWildcat]

Congratulations to Chris Ferguson who has been named the @CFPerformance FCS National Performer of the Week!

- 5 TDs
- UMaine Playoff School-Record for TDs in a game
- First home playoff win in UMaine history

#BlackBearNation | #BearWitness | #FCSPlayoffs

Congrats to him. Looks like he finished tied with Jake Constantine with 5 TDs ...
Constantine had more yards and a higher completion percentage.:stir:
Weber isn't likely to allow him to throw the fade every play.

 

[SWWeatherCat]

Congratulations to Chris Ferguson who has been named the @CFPerformance FCS National Performer of the Week!

- 5 TDs
- UMaine Playoff School-Record for TDs in a game
- First home playoff win in UMaine history

#BlackBearNation | #BearWitness | #FCSPlayoffs

Congrats to him. Looks like he finished tied with Jake Constantine with 5 TDs ...
Constantine had more yards and a higher completion percentage.:stir:
Weber isn't likely to allow him to throw the fade every play.

...and against a better defense from the little I've seen of both JVS & SEMO :stir: :lol:

 

[shelMr]

Tickets purchased! Is it Friday yet? :rockon: :rockon: :rockon:

 

[n.ogdencat]

Mainefutball welcome to the forum! Always fun talking sports with opposing team fans. maine is a good team. Everyone left are good teams and want to continue advancing. Should be a heck of a game this Friday. One thing is for certain it's going to be cold.

There is something I find odd. If you watched Weber vs. Sac did you come out to Ogden? Weber played Sac at home. Yes, you are right Weber didn't play well and Sac came amped. Their former coach was at one time the Weber coach and he didn't want to lose. All of our games against the Hornets have been close the last few years. That's Weber State Football honestly.

No I saw them on TV from Sacramento. I did see Weber down at Cap Poly down near Morro Bay which
is one of my most favorite places. Have seen a couple games over at U.C. Davis. Sacramento State is not very good at least this year. I have been relatively impressed with U.C. Davis but I guess EWU may have them for lunch this Saturday...

We do have a very decent band but I don't think they will be coming...

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=maine%20stein%20song%20on%20youtube&view=detail&mid=183DED5DCE72B5C1FF4A183DED5DCE72B5C1FF4A&FORM=VIRE

We also have a famous Maine Grad Rudy Valle who later went on to star in Hollywood in the 1930's.

www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Rudy+Vallee+Maine+Stein+Song&&view=detail&mid=67FA491DFADB0FC4CF9C67FA491DFADB0FC4CF9C&&FORM=VRDGAR

Morro Bay is awesome and you've gotta love SLO. I've been to two Weber vs. Cal Poly games in SLO and both were really neat experiences. The Central Coast is definitely a destination worth traveling to. Last time I went, my wife and I stayed at the Madonna Inn and witnessed the amazing waterfall urinal. :rofl: :rofl:

I've never been to a football game at Sac (went to a basketball game there once, not the best facility, but it was fun and their fans are great to talk to), but have been to one at UC Davis. Knowing that you are living in NorCal, I'm somewhat shocked that you haven't been overwhelmed by messages from Sir Velo; Weber's resident Bay Area champion fan.

As for the game. Admittedly, I haven't watched a lot of CAA games, but from what I have seen is that offensives in the CAA aren't exactly high-powered like the offenses in the Big Sky (defense isn't really a priority for most Big Sky teams). A lot of smash-mouthed and possession controlling football in the CAA. However, that doesn't mean the bears defense isn't stout, but it does help explain their overall defensive numbers, since the schemes are far different. Yet, like I said, I am definitely not an expert on CAA football. To me, I think the bears are somewhat similar to last years Western Illinois team that visited Ogden. Weber's offense was far more fluid last year (I think it is quicker and more talented this year, but still learning), but our defense is far better than last years.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Here's a breakdown of each team's schedule.

No common opponents.

WSU has played 1 FBS and 0 Non-D1. Maine has played 2 FBS and 0 Non-D1. Opponent's overall combined record is 66-71 (.482) for WSU, and 57-78 (.422) for Maine. SOS edge goes to WSU.

WSU is 6-0 in Home games. Weber's six Home wins were against S Dakota (4-7), N Colorado (2-9), E Wash (10-2), Montana St (8-5), Sac St (2-8), and SEMO (9-4). Those teams are a combined 35-35 (.500). Average score in wins and all Home games was 32-18. E Wash, Montana St, and SEMO were playoff teams.

Maine is 4-3 in Away games. Maine's four Away wins were against FBS W Kentucky (3-9), Rhode Island (6-5), Towson (7-5), and Richmond (4-7). Those teams are a combined 20-26 (.435). Average score in Away wins was 33-25. Away losses were to FBS C Michigan (1-11), Yale (5-5), and William & Mary (4-6). Those teams are a combined 10-22 (.313). Average score in Away losses was 13-26. Overall combined record of all teams played Away is 30-48 (.385). Average score in all Away games was 24-26. Only Towson was a playoff team.

It's also worth noting that although Maine won the CAA outright, going 7-1, they didn't play 3 of the next best 4 teams (JMU 6-2, Delaware 5-3, and Stony Brook 5-3). And the CAA has gone 2-5 in the playoffs.

Based on records and average scores Weber should be the favorite, with the score being something like 29-21. Latest 5Dimes line has WSU -7, O/U 48.5.

 

[WSUWildcat]

Here's a breakdown of each team's schedule.

No common opponents.

WSU has played 1 FBS and 0 Non-D1. Maine has played 2 FBS and 0 Non-D1. Opponent's overall combined record is 66-71 (.482) for WSU, and 57-78 (.422) for Maine. SOS edge goes to WSU.

WSU is 6-0 in Home games. Weber's six Home wins were against S Dakota (4-7), N Colorado (2-9), E Wash (10-2), Montana St (8-5), Sac St (2-8), and SEMO (9-4). Those teams are a combined 35-35 (.500). Average score in wins and all Home games was 32-18. E Wash, Montana St, and SEMO were playoff teams.

Maine is 4-3 in Away games. Maine's four Away wins were against FBS W Kentucky (3-9), Rhode Island (6-5), Towson (7-5), and Richmond (4-7). Those teams are a combined 20-26 (.435). Average score in Away wins was 33-25. Away losses were to FBS C Michigan (1-11), Yale (5-5), and William & Mary (4-6). Those teams are a combined 10-22 (.313). Average score in Away losses was 13-26. Overall combined record of all teams played Away is 30-48 (.385). Average score in all Away games was 24-26. Only Towson was a playoff team.

It's also worth noting that although Maine won the CAA outright, going 7-1, they didn't play 3 of the next best 4 teams (JMU 6-2, Delaware 5-3, and Stony Brook 5-3). And the CAA has gone 2-5 in the playoffs.

Based on records and average scores Weber should be the favorite, with the score being something like 29-21. Latest 5Dimes line has WSU -7, O/U 48.5.

Nice analysis.

Maine may really struggle against Weber's defense. I don't see us giving up much in the run game which will cause them issues if they have to be one dimensional.

On offense,if Weber establishes the run early this could be a blow out. If the run game struggles, Weber may struggle to score. Constantine will need to continue to play like he has the last 5 games. I suspect we will grind it out on offense and keep things close.

Based on the CAA's record in the playoffs and after watching most of Maine's game on Saturday, I think Weber wins this 27-17.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Maine has some good Away wins, but some bad Away losses. Seems like they play up to their good opponents but down to their bad opponents, at least on the road. Also, they seem to be playing better the latter part of the season. I'd expect they will come to Ogden and play well. A win for Weber won't be easy.

 

[weberwildcat]

maine and weber look very similar based on scoring, points allowed and yardage. weather wont benefit one team over the other. neither throw it a ton so snow or rain wouldnt do one of them in like washington state in the apple cup or nau at weber in the snow bowl of 2009 :lol: this game should be awesome to watch. might be 25 degrees at kickoff :yikes:

 

[SWeberCat02]

Interestingly Maine has given up an average of 25 points in Away wins, and 26 points in Away losses. That's basically the same. But they have scored an average of 33 points in Away wins, and 13 points in Away losses. That's a big difference. Whether Weber can hold Maine closer to 33 or 13 could determine who wins this game. Weber gives up an average of 18 points at home and has not given up more than 28.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Forecast I looked at says 31 degrees at kickoff and 29 degrees by the end of the game. Bundle up.

 

[Umbear]

Here's a breakdown of each team's schedule.

No common opponents.

WSU has played 1 FBS and 0 Non-D1. Maine has played 2 FBS and 0 Non-D1. Opponent's overall combined record is 66-71 (.482) for WSU, and 57-78 (.422) for Maine. SOS edge goes to WSU.

WSU is 6-0 in Home games. Weber's six Home wins were against S Dakota (4-7), N Colorado (2-9), E Wash (10-2), Montana St (8-5), Sac St (2-8), and SEMO (9-4). Those teams are a combined 35-35 (.500). Average score in wins and all Home games was 32-18. E Wash, Montana St, and SEMO were playoff teams.

Maine is 4-3 in Away games. Maine's four Away wins were against FBS W Kentucky (3-9), Rhode Island (6-5), Towson (7-5), and Richmond (4-7). Those teams are a combined 20-26 (.435). Average score in Away wins was 33-25. Away losses were to FBS C Michigan (1-11), Yale (5-5), and William & Mary (4-6). Those teams are a combined 10-22 (.313). Average score in Away losses was 13-26. Overall combined record of all teams played Away is 30-48 (.385). Average score in all Away games was 24-26. Only Towson was a playoff team.

It's also worth noting that although Maine won the CAA outright, going 7-1, they didn't play 3 of the next best 4 teams (JMU 6-2, Delaware 5-3, and Stony Brook 5-3). And the CAA has gone 2-5 in the playoffs.

Based on records and average scores Weber should be the favorite, with the score being something like 29-21. Latest 5Dimes line has WSU -7, O/U 48.5.

Not quite fair to weight the FBS team records the same as FCS. WKU on the road is a huge win, not win over a below avg fcs school. Also important to note they did not have their QB for two if their road losses. This explains the point differential as we do not have a capable backup. This will be an awesome game, just felt like these stats were being cherry picked.

 

[the dan]

Really looking forward to Friday night. Sagarin has Weber as a 9 point favorite while Massey projects Weber to win 28-14. I am not as optimistic as Massey.

Some interesting stats about Maine:

Maine Offense
*Maine averages a modest 3.76 yards per rush. Their QB is not a threat running the ball.
*Maine's QB is a 2nd year starter who completes 57.8% of his passes with 19 TDs and 8 INTs. He averages 187 yards passing per game.
*Maine has allowed just 24 sacks.

Maine Defense
*Maine allows just 2.2 yards per rush, best in FCS.
*Maine has 44 QB sacks.
*They allow some yards through the air but it hasn't been done in an efficient manner. Maine is 17th in FCS in defensive pass efficiency.

Maine Special Teams
*Maine has missed 9 extra points and is 9/15 on field goals, including just 2/8 on 40-49 yard field goals.
*Maine has kicked only 7 touchbacks on 62 attempts. Expect some pooch kicks, I'd be shocked if they kick to Shaheed.
*Maine has blocked 4 punts and 1 field goal. Weber has had 3 FGs blocked.
*Maine does a good job of limiting punt return opportunities. Only 11 of their 79 punts this season were returned.

Misc
*Maine is +5 in turnovers compared to +11 for WSU.
*Maine averages 84 penalty yards per game.

My #1 concern is Maine's pass rush combined with Constantine's propensity for fumbling when he's sacked. Schramm will need to get creative to slow them down.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Here's a breakdown of each team's schedule.

No common opponents.

WSU has played 1 FBS and 0 Non-D1. Maine has played 2 FBS and 0 Non-D1. Opponent's overall combined record is 66-71 (.482) for WSU, and 57-78 (.422) for Maine. SOS edge goes to WSU.

WSU is 6-0 in Home games. Weber's six Home wins were against S Dakota (4-7), N Colorado (2-9), E Wash (10-2), Montana St (8-5), Sac St (2-8), and SEMO (9-4). Those teams are a combined 35-35 (.500). Average score in wins and all Home games was 32-18. E Wash, Montana St, and SEMO were playoff teams.

Maine is 4-3 in Away games. Maine's four Away wins were against FBS W Kentucky (3-9), Rhode Island (6-5), Towson (7-5), and Richmond (4-7). Those teams are a combined 20-26 (.435). Average score in Away wins was 33-25. Away losses were to FBS C Michigan (1-11), Yale (5-5), and William & Mary (4-6). Those teams are a combined 10-22 (.313). Average score in Away losses was 13-26. Overall combined record of all teams played Away is 30-48 (.385). Average score in all Away games was 24-26. Only Towson was a playoff team.

It's also worth noting that although Maine won the CAA outright, going 7-1, they didn't play 3 of the next best 4 teams (JMU 6-2, Delaware 5-3, and Stony Brook 5-3). And the CAA has gone 2-5 in the playoffs.

Based on records and average scores Weber should be the favorite, with the score being something like 29-21. Latest 5Dimes line has WSU -7, O/U 48.5.

Not quite fair to weight the FBS team records the same as FCS. WKU on the road is a huge win, not win over a below avg fcs school. Also important to note they did not have their QB for two if their road losses. This explains the point differential as we do not have a capable backup. This will be an awesome game, just felt like these stats were being cherry picked.

Good to know about your QBs. I wouldn't call a road win over a bad W Kentucky team from a weak FBS conference a huge win. A good win, yes. And I said it was a good win in another post. FBS C Mich was probably the worst team in the nation at that level. And Maine was their only win. I didn't cherry pick anything, only stated the simple facts about both team's schedules and scoring results. Looked at Home games for Weber and Away games for Maine because obviously the game is a Home game for Weber and an Away game for Maine. These stats say almost exactly what the pros have the game at, Weber about a touchdown favorite. You could also look at who played and didn't play in Weber's games. I don't have the time or desire to look that closely at all the games. But for you, Weber's FCS only opponent's overall combined record is 57-67 (.460) and Maine's is 53-58 (.477). So maybe SOS is a push.

 

[Mainebrother]

I guess I am going out on a limb based on what I saw with Sacramento State and Cal Poly with Weber State. I don't think Weber is all that physical on the offensive side of the ball and I don't feel that Webers defense is going to have that easy a time with Maine's offense. We have a big offensive line and give Fergie time and he will start to pick apart Webers defense.

That said your defense is quick and seems to get a lot of picks and cause a number of fumbles. SEMO got behind early and appeared to be playing not to make another mistake. Maine won't be doing that...they will let it hang out the entire game and will intimidate Weber wherever and whenever they can....whether Weber is intimidated is another matter. We intimidated JSU on both sides of the ball last weekend.
I can pretty guarantee this is going to be a physical in your face type of game...there may be some fights on the field...I don't predict that but Maine does bow to anyone...it is going to be a tough in your face type of game between Maine and Weber...I expect a few bloody noses and some bumps and bruises on both sides...that is just how Maine plays the game...