Playoff Chances

[weberdude]

As a Weber State fan, would you rather see WSU:

Make the playoffs, go to Missoula, and get beat once again by a superior football team?

Or

Not make the playoffs at all?

Montana is clearly the best team in the conference, and I wouldn't look forward to seeing that point proved in Missoula yet again. The UM game was a tough loss that showed what the WSU football team is all about. They're a good team, but far from great. There is real talent, but there are also significant deficiencies. I'd take Cameron Higgins ahead of most other FCS QBs, but he's wilted in Missoula two straight years now. I also don't count close games against Wyoming and Colorado State as moral victories--and neither do the results charts.

I know, the true competitor would say they want another chance at Montana, but I haven't seen "true competitor" in this team yet. Case in point: Of WSU's four victories, only one opponent has a winning record (EWU). The combined record of teams WSU has beaten: 10-21 Big Sky, 14-30 Overall

The playoff road out of the West will go through Missoula, and I haven't seen any other western team that appears good enough to beat UM in the playoffs.

 

[everettgriz]

Thanks for the props, WD. They're appreciated by Griz fans.

 

[wsucatfan]

If there is no chance for the playoffs might as well take Higgins and Smith out for the rest the season. Then we can see how Mike Hoke and Bo Bolen can do in the final two games. Nothing against Higgins or Smith and I know Higgins will be back but might as well see how the others are going to do after their gone.

Are you kidding, this isn't the NFL where we can throw away the rest of the season to stockpile draft picks. Not only do we need to win the next two games, we need to win them big. If we want any chance of post-season play we need to make a huge statement to end the season. Coach Mac and the team would be pissed off at this suggestion.

 

[wsucatfan]

As a Weber State fan, would you rather see WSU:

Make the playoffs, go to Missoula, and get beat once again by a superior football team?

Or

Not make the playoffs at all?

Montana is clearly the best team in the conference, and I wouldn't look forward to seeing that point proved in Missoula yet again. The UM game was a tough loss that showed what the WSU football team is all about. They're a good team, but far from great. There is real talent, but there are also significant deficiencies. I'd take Cameron Higgins ahead of most other FCS QBs, but he's wilted in Missoula two straight years now. I also don't count close games against Wyoming and Colorado State as moral victories--and neither do the results charts.

I know, the true competitor would say they want another chance at Montana, but I haven't seen "true competitor" in this team yet. Case in point: Of WSU's four victories, only one opponent has a winning record (EWU). The combined record of teams WSU has beaten: 10-21 Big Sky, 14-30 Overall

The playoff road out of the West will go through Missoula, and I haven't seen any other western team that appears good enough to beat UM in the playoffs.

I for one hope we get into the playoffs I would love to see Mac and the team get a second shot at the Griz, if you want to be the best you have to beat the best. I could care less who we start off playing, bring it.
Mac has laid the foundation for WSU to be sucessful for years to come. No need to jump off a bridge yet.

 

[Da Griz]

I would love to see Mac and the team get a second shot at the Griz, if you want to be the best you have to beat the best. I could care less who we start off playing, bring it.

Attaboy... THAT'S college football!

 

[Wildcat 100]

Montana beats Idaho State with a last second field goal, 12-10. What about the fake injury timeout, since they didn't have any timeouts left.....interesting.

Just proves my point, Montana is a 'homer', they have a very hard time winning on the road, c'mon....Idaho State...... the film doesn't lie......go Jizzlies

 

[native]

I think there is a slight chance because the Great West and Southland? are beating each other up pretty bad. Cental Arkansas, Mcnesse St, and Texas State all could lose multiple games (Central Ark isn't eligible either). Nobody from the Great West will get in, and the UNI conference isn't looking as solid as they once were. I just don't see the NCAA only having one Western team in the playoffs. But being 7-4 is quite the stretch.

The one good thing you guys have going for you is that all 7 of your wins would come against Division 1 schools. That is always one of the unwritten qualifications the playoff committee looks at. I wouldn't exactly count you guys out; in 2006 in when we went, we were 7-4 with the all the wins against Division 1 teams, and the one against Colorado.

I do think that if the Big Sky happens to get 2 bids (which is a big if) Weber has the best chance. Looking at the schedule, my predictions are that Weber finishes 7-4 (6-2), N Arizona finishes 6-5 (5-3), E Wash finishes 7-4 (5-3), and Montana St finishes 7-4 (5-3). If this is how it ended, and the SKy gets 1 at large, I think Weber gets it due to its 6-2 conference record and strength of schedule.

If we finish the way you are predicting, Weber will be the only team from the Big Sky eligible for an at-large bid, since the Wildcats will be the only team besides Montana with 7 or more DI wins. MSU and EWU both played a DII opponent.

But as other posters have noted, this year there are lots of "bubble" teams out there with the potential to finish with 8 DI wins. We might make it anyway, because of strength of schedule/power rating, but it will be by the skin of our teeth.

Since Weber is just barely on the outside looking in, beauty points will count with fickle poll voters. These final two victories must be very convincing! ...and EWU must probably lose one, or at least look weak. Head-to-head does not count for much in at-large deliberations.

 

[native]

As a Weber State fan, would you rather see WSU:

Make the playoffs, go to Missoula, and get beat once again by a superior football team?

Or

Not make the playoffs at all?

Montana is clearly the best team in the conference, and I wouldn't look forward to seeing that point proved in Missoula yet again. The UM game was a tough loss that showed what the WSU football team is all about. They're a good team, but far from great. There is real talent, but there are also significant deficiencies. I'd take Cameron Higgins ahead of most other FCS QBs, but he's wilted in Missoula two straight years now. I also don't count close games against Wyoming and Colorado State as moral victories--and neither do the results charts.

I know, the true competitor would say they want another chance at Montana, but I haven't seen "true competitor" in this team yet. Case in point: Of WSU's four victories, only one opponent has a winning record (EWU). The combined record of teams WSU has beaten: 10-21 Big Sky, 14-30 Overall

The playoff road out of the West will go through Missoula, and I haven't seen any other western team that appears good enough to beat UM in the playoffs.

Perish the f***ing thought! I would rather go to the playoffs, meet the Griz again in Missoula, and WIN!

 

[SWeberCat02]

I think there is a slight chance because the Great West and Southland? are beating each other up pretty bad. Cental Arkansas, Mcnesse St, and Texas State all could lose multiple games (Central Ark isn't eligible either). Nobody from the Great West will get in, and the UNI conference isn't looking as solid as they once were. I just don't see the NCAA only having one Western team in the playoffs. But being 7-4 is quite the stretch.

The one good thing you guys have going for you is that all 7 of your wins would come against Division 1 schools. That is always one of the unwritten qualifications the playoff committee looks at. I wouldn't exactly count you guys out; in 2006 in when we went, we were 7-4 with the all the wins against Division 1 teams, and the one against Colorado.

I do think that if the Big Sky happens to get 2 bids (which is a big if) Weber has the best chance. Looking at the schedule, my predictions are that Weber finishes 7-4 (6-2), N Arizona finishes 6-5 (5-3), E Wash finishes 7-4 (5-3), and Montana St finishes 7-4 (5-3). If this is how it ended, and the SKy gets 1 at large, I think Weber gets it due to its 6-2 conference record and strength of schedule.

If we finish the way you are predicting, Weber will be the only team from the Big Sky eligible for an at-large bid, since the Wildcats will be the only team besides Montana with 7 or more DI wins. MSU and EWU both played a DII opponent.

But as other posters have noted, this year there are lots of "bubble" teams out there with the potential to finish with 8 DI wins. We might make it anyway, because of strength of schedule/power rating, but it will be by the skin of our teeth.

Since Weber is just barely on the outside looking in, beauty points will count with fickle poll voters. These final two victories must be very convincing! ...and EWU must probably lose one, or at least look weak. Head-to-head does not count for much in at-large deliberations.

You are correct, Native. A team must win at least 7 games against DI opponents to be eligible for an at large bid. With that in mind, only Montana is already eligible, and Weber, Eastern, N Arizona, and Montana St all must win out to be eligible (all 4 teams have 5 DI wins, with 2 games remaining). And as Weber still plays N Arizona, Eastern still plays N Arizona, and N Arizona still plays both Weber and Eastern, it's not possible for all three of those teams to win out. With that said, I believe it will take 8 total wins to get an at large, and that would mean Weber and N Arizona have no chance. That leaves Eastern and Montana St. Eastern plays at S Utah and at N Arizona. I don't think they win both those games. Montana St plays Sac St and Montana. And I don't think they beat Montana. So, I'm predicting Montana will be the only Big Sky team in this year. (At least we can look forward to next year, when the playoffs expand to 20 teams.)

 

[SWeberCat02]

This is from CSN and was posted prior to last weekend's games (Weber is not even mentioned):

http://www.championshipsubdivisionnews.com/index.php/2009/11/06/the-csn-way-clarity?blog=5

The Big Sky is a huge X-factor this year in terms of at-large bids. Eastern Washington, who just discovered that they are eligible for the postseason, could get to 7 D-I wins and an 8-3 record if they win their last two games, but they wouldn’t have a quality win to show the committee. If Northern Arizona wins out, they’ll most certainly be in - but that’s because they would have beaten FBS Ole Miss this weekend. And Montana State - who can get to 8-3 and 7 D-I wins if they win out - might have just enough of a resume if they do it since that would mean they’d have beaten Montana to do it.

My predictions for the playoffs so far:

Autobids:
Big Sky: Montana
CAA: Richmond
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
OVC: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Holy Cross
SoCon: Elon
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

At-Larges:
1. CAA: Villanova
2. MVFC: South Dakota State
3. CAA: New Hampshire
4. SoCon: Appalachian State
5. CAA: William & Mary
6. Patriot: Lafayette
7. Southland: McNeese State
8. MVFC: Northern Iowa

The next five: Liberty, Florida A&M, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Central Connecticut State

Seeds: No. 1 Richmond, No. 2 Montana, No. 3 Southern Illinois, No. 4 Elon

The seven-win teams that could be waiting in the wings: UMass, Georgia Southern, The Citadel

 

[native]

I think there is a slight chance because the Great West and Southland? are beating each other up pretty bad. Cental Arkansas, Mcnesse St, and Texas State all could lose multiple games (Central Ark isn't eligible either). Nobody from the Great West will get in, and the UNI conference isn't looking as solid as they once were. I just don't see the NCAA only having one Western team in the playoffs. But being 7-4 is quite the stretch.

The one good thing you guys have going for you is that all 7 of your wins would come against Division 1 schools. That is always one of the unwritten qualifications the playoff committee looks at. I wouldn't exactly count you guys out; in 2006 in when we went, we were 7-4 with the all the wins against Division 1 teams, and the one against Colorado.

I do think that if the Big Sky happens to get 2 bids (which is a big if) Weber has the best chance. Looking at the schedule, my predictions are that Weber finishes 7-4 (6-2), N Arizona finishes 6-5 (5-3), E Wash finishes 7-4 (5-3), and Montana St finishes 7-4 (5-3). If this is how it ended, and the SKy gets 1 at large, I think Weber gets it due to its 6-2 conference record and strength of schedule.

If we finish the way you are predicting, Weber will be the only team from the Big Sky eligible for an at-large bid, since the Wildcats will be the only team besides Montana with 7 or more DI wins. MSU and EWU both played a DII opponent.

But as other posters have noted, this year there are lots of "bubble" teams out there with the potential to finish with 8 DI wins. We might make it anyway, because of strength of schedule/power rating, but it will be by the skin of our teeth.

Since Weber is just barely on the outside looking in, beauty points will count with fickle poll voters. These final two victories must be very convincing! ...and EWU must probably lose one, or at least look weak. Head-to-head does not count for much in at-large deliberations.

You are correct, Native. A team must win at least 7 games against DI opponents to be eligible for an at large bid. With that in mind, only Montana is already eligible, and Weber, Eastern, N Arizona, and Montana St all must win out to be eligible (all 4 teams have 5 DI wins, with 2 games remaining). And as Weber still plays N Arizona, Eastern still plays N Arizona, and N Arizona still plays both Weber and Eastern, it's not possible for all three of those teams to win out. With that said, I believe it will take 8 total wins to get an at large, and that would mean Weber and N Arizona have no chance. That leaves Eastern and Montana St. Eastern plays at S Utah and at N Arizona. I don't think they win both those games. Montana St plays Sac St and Montana. And I don't think they beat Montana. So, I'm predicting Montana will be the only Big Sky team in this year. (At least we can look forward to next year, when the playoffs expand to 20 teams.)

There is indeed a real possibility that the Big Sky will send only one team to the playoffs this year, but it ain't over 'til it's over.

One reason I hold out hope for a second BSC bid is the fact that it will be very difficult for the selection committee to hold both the Big Sky and the Great West combined to only one playoff participant. Clearly the BSC and GWFC are two of the top four power conferences this year, and the selection committee is made of of representatives from each of four regional committees. If a second Big Sky team finishes with 7 DI wins, and no other FCS team in the top 20 of the GPI finishes with more than 7 DI wins, I think the BSC gets an at-large bid.

 

[smjcpa1]

I will be VERY surprised if any team from the GWFC gets an invite to the playoffs. Cal-Poly is not as good this year, and their conference does not get an auto bid.

 

[native]

I will be VERY surprised if any team from the GWFC gets an invite to the playoffs. Cal-Poly is not as good this year, and their conference does not get an auto bid.

Correct. There is no longer a single GWFC team capable of reaching the minimum threshold of 7 Division I victories required to be considered for an at-large bid - in part because of the beat-downs administered this year by Big Sky teams!

Even perennial powerhouses Cal Poly and Davis played and scheduled themselves out of any possibility of contention by losing back on 31 October. At that point, it became impossible for either team to achieve the minimum threshold of DI wins.

 

[Da Griz]

Montana is a 'homer', they have a very hard time winning on the road

MONTANA:
41-34 at Northern Arizona
45-30 at Sac State
12-10 at Idaho State
Away average spread = 8

WEBER:
36-29 at Portland
31-13 at Eastern
28-20 at Northern Colorado
10-31 at Montana State
Away average spread = 3

 

[Wildcat 4Ever]

Montana is a 'homer', they have a very hard time winning on the road

MONTANA:
41-34 at Northern Arizona
45-30 at Sac State
12-10 at Idaho State
Away average spread = 8

WEBER:
36-29 at Portland
31-13 at Eastern
28-20 at Northern Colorado
10-31 at Montana State
Away average spread = 3

strike a nerve again.....the truth will set you free......cmon, Idaho State......every Grizz fan changed their shorts after that one.......have a great day......truth is truth, do what you want with that quote, not your truth......

 

[native]

Montana is a 'homer', they have a very hard time winning on the road

MONTANA:
41-34 at Northern Arizona
45-30 at Sac State
12-10 at Idaho State
Away average spread = 8

WEBER:
36-29 at Portland
31-13 at Eastern
28-20 at Northern Colorado
10-31 at Montana
Away average victory spread = 11[/b]

FIFY, but point well taken, DG.

Montana is a great program, and it is a pleasure to beat the Griz once in while.

If a few Griz players stop the illegal blocks intended to create injuuries, such as those against Derek Johnson a couple of years ago, and Ryan Eastman this year, I would have no beef with the Montana program on the field, which I otherwise admire very much.

 

[Wildcat 4Ever]

Montana is a 'homer', they have a very hard time winning on the road

MONTANA:
41-34 at Northern Arizona
45-30 at Sac State
12-10 at Idaho State
Away average spread = 8

WEBER:
36-29 at Portland
31-13 at Eastern
28-20 at Northern Colorado
10-31 at Montana
Away average victory spread = 11[/b]

FIFY, but point well taken, DG.

Montana is a great program, and it is a pleasure to beat the Griz once in while.

If a few Griz players stop the illegal blocks intended to create injuuries, such as those against Derek Johnson a couple of years ago, and Ryan Eastman this year, I would have no beef with the Montana program on the field, which I otherwise admire very much.

Native,

I agree with you, the Grizz have a good program, so they don't need all the extra 'stuff', they can win more often that not on their own merit and skills.

You bring up Derek Johnson and Ryan Eastman, both valid examples of their illegal blocking. At this years game, Reynolds has 45 yds rushing in the first half, Eastman lining up as a DE on some plays, QB points at him, audibles, and the play goes away from that side. That is a lot of respect for a NG/DE. That happened almost every time they placed Eastman on the edge either left or right. Linehan and Barkdull were able to contain the edge and Sedillo would shoot the gap and make the play. Second half starts, illegal block against Eastman, he's out for the game and Reynolds rushes for 196 yds (approx.); great game for Reynolds and good adjustment by Grizz coaches.....bad day for WSU defense and Eastman who probably is done for the season.....good think he's only a sophomore.

 

[SWeberCat02]

It appears that there is one at-large spot left, and it looks to me like Weber must win Sat, and both Montana St and Eastern must lose for Weber to have any shot at that last spot. But even if this happens, Weber could still not get an invite, as Liberty, Lafayette, and Colgate should all finish with 9 wins. I predicted earlier that Montana St and Eastern both lose and Weber wins, but after watching N Arizona in the snow bowl, I now think Eastern will win and get the last spot over Liberty.

 

[wordup]

Money is always an issue and I do not think the NCAA will want to pay a $1,000 per ticket for Colgate or Liberty to travel to Missoula just to get their butts kicked. Further, I think NAU has a very good chance at beating EWash. NAU plays well at home and EWash is a hot-cold team alot like Weber this year. MSU is just plain average at best and the Grizz should make quick work of those guys, Weber will run all over Cal Poly. I think Weber's chances, while not great are very real in deed.

 

[wordup]

the word the team is getting from the FCS is that if they win and the other two teams lose they are a lock. I dont know how credible the info is but thats what I'm hearing they're hearing.