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The PAC/MWC Dominoes Begin to Fall

No news is good news... The PAC and MWC are waiting for a legal ruling and information on media deals... Those deals will indicate a preference for adding the 18th biggest market in the US (and give the inviting conference "cover")... hang tight my friends. This is happening.

If it doesn't, I'm not sure my fandom will recover based on what I've been told. lol
 
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No news is good news... The PAC and MWC are waiting for a legal ruling and information on media deals... Those deals will indicate a preference for adding the 18th biggest market in the US... hang tight my friends. This is happening.

If it doesn't, I'm not sure my fandom will recover based on what I've been told. lol

Don't play with my emotions.
 
No news is good news... The PAC and MWC are waiting for a legal ruling and information on media deals... Those deals will indicate a preference for adding the 18th biggest market in the US (and give the inviting conference "cover")... hang tight my friends. This is happening.

If it doesn't, I'm not sure my fandom will recover based on what I've been told. lol
I pray you are right. Just spent about an hour and a half at Beach Hut deli. Talking with a buddy about what a move to either Pac-12 or Mountain West would mean. Can't believe we're even having this conversation.
 
I pray you are right. Just spent about an hour and a half at Beach Hut deli. Talking with a buddy about what a move to either Pac-12 or Mountain West would mean. Can't believe we're even having this conversation.
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I have been following @BillFarleyPhD on X. His bio includes “experience negotiating NBA and MiLB Stadium financing & JVs w/ public & private equity” plus 7 years in Sacramento’s City Manager’s office, 0 years with Fortune 1000 companies, and that he negotiated over $1.b in public-private partnerships, including an “11th hour deal to keep the NBA Kings in Sacramento” and a Triple-A Ballpark for the Rivercats.

He has been very skeptical about Sac State's push for Pac-12. Still is, but now writes that they have an "outside chance..."


But, now?


"Instead of NIL contingent pledges, watch for a naming rights sponsorship of the prospective football stadium. The Sac State President indicated this was forthcoming. A solid naming rights deal in the $30+ million range could set things in motion. The CSU system could lend its balance sheet (as it did with San Diego State) to help Sac State underwrite public financing for the project. A mega-naming rights sponsor and CSU support could set the dominoes in motion to secure funding from counties and cities in the region. If that happens Sac State has an outside chance at getting that Pac-12 invite."
 
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Dr. Wood said funding had 'already' been secured.
He hasn't divulged the funding source(s), but maybe he is hedging his statement based on an anticipated funding source?
I like the big donor approach, but if that big donor ever leaves, bad juju. It would have to be a giant corporation for a $30M+ naming right. Then it would no longer be Hornet Stadium. How much did Snap Dragon pay?

Prefer to have multiple middle sized donors to balance the portfolio.
 
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Pretty negative Nelly of Bill.
I saw his post few days ago where he mentioned some pessimism. I asked what was his source for him posting such info?
He referred me to an article from student reporter at Hornet,
I suggested he speak w SAC12 group not a student reporter.
He said student reporter had good info. I replied and said. How much experience would you expect a student reporter to have with T&C’s and various types of notes and options for various different sources of potential funding? He never replied after that.
 
In addition. Dr Wood mentioned that he is following the exact same model that he learned from his time at SDSU and the president of SDSU that mentored his.

SDSU did have CSU support w the business model to assist w SnapDragon.

Interviews have pointed several times to this: “We don’t have final renderings and a budget for the stadium yet”. This is our goal.

With an FBS invite we would have new revenue to factor into financing, Stadium size & Upgrades in options would be based upon FBS / Corp Sponsors, City Sports Funding, Sac Republic long term lease and naming funds.

The math hasn’t been done until we see if we get an FBS invite. If we don’t and stay FCS our referendum will finance the base model stadium in my opinion. But it will be built and beautiful.

The giant video screens etc might come at a later date etc? $$?

I like the new big funding from the Native American Indian Casinos. They will be a huge partner. They love sports and more tourism.

Let’s not get doom & gloom from a guy wanting to make himself popular in a topic when guy didn’t even do a real interview w SAC12 group.

Details aren’t going to be locked down until we get official YES or NO from PAC & MWC.

My read of the situation
 
Always amused by people who say no one has personally given them all of the information, therefore the whole operation is a scam.

It's common sense based on the reporting that the funding for a 25k seat stadium has been secured and the scope of the project will change based on what conference the school plays in. It's also understandable that the size of the naming rights deal they may get is dependent on this as well. More revenue from a PAC-12 deal and a higher demand you can make for the naming rights deal because of brand will change the project.

So you will not get a "cost" or full funding numbers until the variables have been solidified.

NIL money could be a concern if the school can't consistently tap into a source to keep that well from running dry.
 
No doom or gloom here. I am open to hearing or reading all sides, except for current Pac 12 fans. If Bill's bio is true, I think his opinion is worth hearing. As for the Hornet report, I took Bill's comments as complimenting them for asking the right questions.
 
Thanks for posting the Farley opinion, it's always comical to read opinions from those who aren't in the weeds like we are. Farley hasn't lived in the Sac area since 2008, he obviously doesn't have the pulse on the situation like us in the area do and relying on a student journalist for the basis of forming his opinion is pretty weak and comical all at the same time. When I need to make critical work decisions, I always rely on my student intern for guidance...said no competent person ever.

The financing concerns are valid until Dr. Wood presents the details. But the common denominator with his opinion, and others who have voiced financing concerns, fail to consider some critical facts to the situation:
  1. First and foremost Farley, and many other haters, conflate the stadium with an FBS invite. Dr. Wood and Dr. Orr have made it clear that a new stadium is going to happen regardless of what conference we end up in. An FBS invite will obviously bolster the financial aspect of the stadium build, and possibly allow the project to grow in scope (seating capacity), but lets delve further into this...
  2. The naysays always fail to bring up the student fee increase. I'm not in the financial space so I have no idea what $4M per year carved out for athletic facilities can leverage in the public bond market. This would give us a good ballpark on the bare bone budget for the stadium. Would be curious if anyone could provide a knowledgeable response to this.
  3. Dr. Wood has said bonding for the stadium is going to the CSU Board of Trustees in November. I would assume it's a rubber stamp and the Board wouldn't even consider voting on such a thing if it was all smoke and mirrors. I deal with capital improvement project documents that go for Board approval (not the CSU) on a regular basis. You don't go to the Board, any Board, until all the ducks are in a row. The level of embarrassment from a Board rejection for a CIP related project/funding request will cost you your reputation and possibly your job/career.
  4. As mentioned in one of his interviews, this is something Dr. Wood (and his team) have been working on since he became president 14 months ago. Related to item 3 above, you don't take a project of this size and scope for Board approval without having all the proper planning done ahead of time. A lot of time has been spend on this effort, you can't ad lib such a heavy lift without it falling apart immediately.
  5. Dr. Wood has said he is not using general funds for this project...doesn't mean he can't or won't. We've already seen him raid a bucket of money to get the Well renovation built, so we know he won't hesitate to do it again if needed. Which leads me to the last and most important point...
  6. Dr. Wood has staked his entire reputation on this stadium project. If he pushed forward with the stadium without some assurances on funding, then he'll look like a clown and be forever mired by this embarrassment in anything he does in this region, or elsewhere. Dr. Wood subscribes to some questionable philosophies and principles, but anyone who has ever dealt with hardened and experienced bureaucrats knows that they will maintain/defend their reputation at all costs. He and his team didn't come all this way to let a few million bucks (see 5 above) get in the way of this legacy move.
I'll close this long post with my biggest concern about this whole stadium effort. We could see an economic collapse submarine this whole effort like we saw with the event center in the late 2000's. Again, I'm not in the financial space, but anyone who goes grocery shopping knows inflation is a large part of the higher prices people are paying for food and goods. I see it on construction projects at a much impactful scale. If inflation remains unchecked and we end up in a hyperinflation situation (we're printing money at an insane rate while also lowering interest rates, yay), this project and many others would be done for. Politically, if Mean Tweets reclaims his rightful seat on the throne (oh no you can't post that here!!!), then you can bet there will be a lot of people looking to pull some economic levers to undermine his Orange reign. Interesting times ahead.

 
PAC 12 will pause any new deals until they get some media revenue valuation data completed.
They want Memphis but I think that ship sailed once they signed that AAC K few weeks ago.

They have a projected completion time in the article.


We are in a good place. We are prepared which it appears that no other university is prepared.
 
Thanks for posting the Farley opinion, it's always comical to read opinions from those who aren't in the weeds like we are. Farley hasn't lived in the Sac area since 2008, he obviously doesn't have the pulse on the situation like us in the area do and relying on a student journalist for the basis of forming his opinion is pretty weak and comical all at the same time. When I need to make critical work decisions, I always rely on my student intern for guidance...said no competent person ever.

The financing concerns are valid until Dr. Wood presents the details. But the common denominator with his opinion, and others who have voiced financing concerns, fail to consider some critical facts to the situation:
  1. First and foremost Farley, and many other haters, conflate the stadium with an FBS invite. Dr. Wood and Dr. Orr have made it clear that a new stadium is going to happen regardless of what conference we end up in. An FBS invite will obviously bolster the financial aspect of the stadium build, and possibly allow the project to grow in scope (seating capacity), but lets delve further into this...
  2. The naysays always fail to bring up the student fee increase. I'm not in the financial space so I have no idea what $4M per year carved out for athletic facilities can leverage in the public bond market. This would give us a good ballpark on the bare bone budget for the stadium. Would be curious if anyone could provide a knowledgeable response to this.
  3. Dr. Wood has said bonding for the stadium is going to the CSU Board of Trustees in November. I would assume it's a rubber stamp and the Board wouldn't even consider voting on such a thing if it was all smoke and mirrors. I deal with capital improvement project documents that go for Board approval (not the CSU) on a regular basis. You don't go to the Board, any Board, until all the ducks are in a row. The level of embarrassment from a Board rejection for a CIP related project/funding request will cost you your reputation and possibly your job/career.
  4. As mentioned in one of his interviews, this is something Dr. Wood (and his team) have been working on since he became president 14 months ago. Related to item 3 above, you don't take a project of this size and scope for Board approval without having all the proper planning done ahead of time. A lot of time has been spend on this effort, you can't ad lib such a heavy lift without it falling apart immediately.
  5. Dr. Wood has said he is not using general funds for this project...doesn't mean he can't or won't. We've already seen him raid a bucket of money to get the Well renovation built, so we know he won't hesitate to do it again if needed. Which leads me to the last and most important point...
  6. Dr. Wood has staked his entire reputation on this stadium project. If he pushed forward with the stadium without some assurances on funding, then he'll look like a clown and be forever mired by this embarrassment in anything he does in this region, or elsewhere. Dr. Wood subscribes to some questionable philosophies and principles, but anyone who has ever dealt with hardened and experienced bureaucrats knows that they will maintain/defend their reputation at all costs. He and his team didn't come all this way to let a few million bucks (see 5 above) get in the way of this legacy move.
I'll close this long post with my biggest concern about this whole stadium effort. We could see an economic collapse submarine this whole effort like we saw with the event center in the late 2000's. Again, I'm not in the financial space, but anyone who goes grocery shopping knows inflation is a large part of the higher prices people are paying for food and goods. I see it on construction projects at a much impactful scale. If inflation remains unchecked and we end up in a hyperinflation situation (we're printing money at an insane rate while also lowering interest rates, yay), this project and many others would be done for. Politically, if Mean Tweets reclaims his rightful seat on the throne (oh no you can't post that here!!!), then you can bet there will be a lot of people looking to pull some economic levers to undermine his Orange reign. Interesting times ahead.


I think the single biggest point here is Dr. Wood staking his reputation on taking Sac State Athletics to the next level - regardless of the conference. I first heard from him and Dr. Nelson about these stadium improvements, and arena happenings about a year ago, maybe 2 months into Dr. Wood's reign. I remember being disappointed when there wasn't a big roll out around Give Sac State day, etc. But this was all being calculated in the background.

I am definitely not on board with most of Dr. Wood's pet projects, but whether he's that hardcore or not on all the equity, black excellence, etc. stuff, I really could care less if he's equally as passionate about the campus experience, athletics, etc. I realize some of that stuff is just what you get in a modern college ecosystem. But either way, he HAD to take care of so many of those little things first before rolling out a legacy effort like this to appease the majority of the complainers (there will always be some). He couldn't just take the reigns and drop a groundbreaking effort like this.

His reputation IS on the line. At least with the things he can control, like the stadium, arena, etc. And, he and his brother have done everything they can at this point in realignment to make Sac State a player. At worst we are in the national discussion, and we are getting new facilities. As I've said before, the off the record conversations I've had lead me to believe that before the end of October (possibly by homecoming?), we will accept a bid to a new conference effective 7/1/26.
 

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