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The PAC/MWC Dominoes Begin to Fall

Campaign promises are cheap.

As easily as it materialized, is as easily as it could vaporize.

If we were longterm serious, our football team would be 5-1 or 4-2 right now. Or, 6-0 with all the 'money' that is floating around Sac in NIL and other promises. Being beaten at home by EWU and their $13M athletic budget is not acceptable.

Just wait until the conferences see our '24-25 MBB results. That will be like a fatal car crash in slow motion.

Gotta look at this as a business and so far, this is how the MWC/PacX are evaluating things.

How would 'Big10 information' remotely know what is going on with the MWC? Probably a NDSU hoser.
Meh, not a good take given what is currently transpiring or the current situation the Pac/MW find themselves in. On the field success is rarely a reason for an invite. If it was a major metric, UTEP doesn't get an MW invite, UNLV wouldn't have been in consideration for a Pac invite, the list goes on. Countless other former FCS transitioned programs never get an FBS ticket if there was some "on the field" metric required.

I put the "Big Ten Information" guy in the same bucket as the rest of the haters on the distant outside making comments on what they want to happen. Making a statement about concerns and not following up on details is just click bait. Yawn.

That said, Dr. Wood is going to have to deliver on the stadium funding details fairly soon. If he is in fact taking a bonding measure to the CSU board in November, we'll see it pop up on a Board meeting agenda in the coming weeks.





Regarding the pending Pac moves, their current pause means they are putting their future fully in the hands of TV executives as they await their market valuations to be complete. The Pac will need a TV deal worth $12M+ per year to have any chance at luring any of the AAC schools away from their current situation. If that TV deal money doesn't materialize, the Pac will have to make some emergency/bottom of the barrel additions, probably from the CUSA (Texas State, Sam Houston State, and if desperate enough, even a horrid New Mexico State). The Pac has to add a current FBS school in all sports to maintain its FBS status, otherwise they'll lose out on playoff payouts.

For the Mountain West, with Hawai'i's addition they hit the 8 minimum needed to maintain FBS status and will survive at least for another half decade. The MW needs to add one more member to get a full 8 game conference slate. Texas State publicly rejected the MW and New Mexico has blocked NMSU from sharing a conference for decades which leaves the MW with no regional FBS options. Football only additions from the MAC (Northern Illinois and Toledo) have been floated as possibilities.

If a TV exec tells the Pac to add us for TV deal reasons then we are in. It's that simple. We don't address their membership count issue, but in theory they could get a waiver for a year until we complete our transition to FBS. Unfortunately that would cost the Pac millions in payout monies so while that is an option, it would probably be their last play if all else falls through.

I'm more bullish on our MW membership potential. Of all the craziness that has been going on in FBS realignment, the MW has been the only one making logical/regional moves. Adding UTEP (they'll be a travel partner with UNM) and coercing Hawai'i into full membership status were no-brainer moves for the MW. I can't see a reason why the current MW membership wouldn't want to maintain at least one trip to CA for football every year, in addition to the other benefits of adding a large market to their lineup entails. They'll also need to bolster their membership lineup for the inevitable raid from the Pac (UNLV & maybe Air Force) that will happen in a handful of years. Getting us on board now (along with possibly even Tarleton State) would prime them for any future FCS move-ups for the next round of realignment.

tldr; given what we know as of now, I like our FBS chances. Dr. Wood needs to finalize the stadium funding details and I think everything else will fall into place for us.
 
Meh, not a good take given what is currently transpiring or the current situation the Pac/MW find themselves in. On the field success is rarely a reason for an invite. If it was a major metric, UTEP doesn't get an MW invite, UNLV wouldn't have been in consideration for a Pac invite, the list goes on. Countless other former FCS transitioned programs never get an FBS ticket if there was some "on the field" metric required.

I put the "Big Ten Information" guy in the same bucket as the rest of the haters on the distant outside making comments on what they want to happen. Making a statement about concerns and not following up on details is just click bait. Yawn.

That said, Dr. Wood is going to have to deliver on the stadium funding details fairly soon. If he is in fact taking a bonding measure to the CSU board in November, we'll see it pop up on a Board meeting agenda in the coming weeks.





Regarding the pending Pac moves, their current pause means they are putting their future fully in the hands of TV executives as they await their market valuations to be complete. The Pac will need a TV deal worth $12M+ per year to have any chance at luring any of the AAC schools away from their current situation. If that TV deal money doesn't materialize, the Pac will have to make some emergency/bottom of the barrel additions, probably from the CUSA (Texas State, Sam Houston State, and if desperate enough, even a horrid New Mexico State). The Pac has to add a current FBS school in all sports to maintain its FBS status, otherwise they'll lose out on playoff payouts.

For the Mountain West, with Hawai'i's addition they hit the 8 minimum needed to maintain FBS status and will survive at least for another half decade. The MW needs to add one more member to get a full 8 game conference slate. Texas State publicly rejected the MW and New Mexico has blocked NMSU from sharing a conference for decades which leaves the MW with no regional FBS options. Football only additions from the MAC (Northern Illinois and Toledo) have been floated as possibilities.

If a TV exec tells the Pac to add us for TV deal reasons then we are in. It's that simple. We don't address their membership count issue, but in theory they could get a waiver for a year until we complete our transition to FBS. Unfortunately that would cost the Pac millions in payout monies so while that is an option, it would probably be their last play if all else falls through.

I'm more bullish on our MW membership potential. Of all the craziness that has been going on in FBS realignment, the MW has been the only one making logical/regional moves. Adding UTEP (they'll be a travel partner with UNM) and coercing Hawai'i into full membership status were no-brainer moves for the MW. I can't see a reason why the current MW membership wouldn't want to maintain at least one trip to CA for football every year, in addition to the other benefits of adding a large market to their lineup entails. They'll also need to bolster their membership lineup for the inevitable raid from the Pac (UNLV & maybe Air Force) that will happen in a handful of years. Getting us on board now (along with possibly even Tarleton State) would prime them for any future FCS move-ups for the next round of realignment.

tldr; given what we know as of now, I like our FBS chances. Dr. Wood needs to finalize the stadium funding details and I think everything else will fall into place for us.
Agree 100%. And our full sports programs in a great recruiting region and nice proximity to both San Jose & Reno NV are great bonuses!

The other sweet spot long term is that if we get MWC it c ock blocks FUCD because we don’t need 4 MWC teams that tightly packed. UCD isn’t prepared to react fast enough. Thankful SAC ST started this process a year ago.

Our stadium being built regardless of an FBs invite is ✅ and I’m so thankful!

But we all know 100% the upgrades to that stadium with FBS invite are much better than the base model staying BigSky as option 3.

The other factor is getting SAC Republic locked in on 5-10 yr lease.

That owner SAC Republic? I’m surprised media has t interviewed him about this yet? Unless he’s in NDA w Sac State until SAC finalizes stadium design plans that are pending an FBS invite.

Base model Mercedes VS AMG package
 

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