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The PAC/MWC Dominoes Begin to Fall

Conference affiliation announcements shouldn't come from Dr. Wood unless a conference already announces it first. None of that matters if Dr. Wood can't bring the stadium across the finish line.

Only new news on the Pac front is that new lawsuits started flying from the departing MW members to get out of or reduce the exit fees they have to pay. I haven't read up on them much but it sounds like the lawsuits have a low chance of success. This tells me the new Pac members saw the new media deal valuation/projections and are realizing they are going to need to find more cash from somewhere or it's just a tactic to get the MW to settle on lower fees. Not sure why else you would give a ton of billable hours to your legal counsel for a case you are likely to lose.
 
I have no inside knowledge, but I will also try to connect the dots based on timing of recent events.

I agree with SD that the lawsuits regarding exit fees most likely coincides with projected media revenue. If those revenues are low, there will be no poaching of high level teams from Eastern conferences. Hence the reassurance to insiders that an announcement will be made "soon". Fresno and SDSU are not a part of the lawsuit yet, but that makes sense as they have wanted into the Pac so bad for so long that they've already accounted for the exit fees in their budget.

It would be very difficult to nail down a coach like Marion without being able to tell him the direction of the program. Would also explain why Vick would throw his hat into the ring when he was all but guaranteed a HC gig with an FCS program in his hometown/state. (Vick and Sac State both benefited from the ESPN news)

My takeaway is the Twitter commentors (even high profile ones) saying it's over for Sac State don't know anymore about the situation than you or I. They actually probably know less.
 
sports360az.com

Mailbag: Pac-12 assets and CFP revenue, the postseason calendar, the Sac State expansion option and more

The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to [email protected] and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity. Can you explain the 2024 bowl season and College...
sports360az.com sports360az.com

John Wilner, sports reporter, Bay Area News group

Is Sacramento State a realistic expansion option for the Pac-12, or are the Hornets a better fit for the Mountain West? — @MarcSheehan006

Sacramento State has done a fabulous job marketing itself as an expansion candidate for the Pac-12 or Mountain West and went so far as to set a goal of securing $50 million in NIL pledges this fall. Last we checked, the Hornets had roughly $35 million pledged.

(Note: They do not have $35 million in hand, much less the $50 million that an ESPN report suggested earlier this week.)

Sacramento State is an FCS program that resides in the nation’s No. 20 media market, is reasonably close to the Bay Area tech money and has easy access to high-level recruits. (Folsom High School is a powerhouse.)

But we have not received confirmation of serious interest by the two FBS conferences, which are taking contrasting approaches to expansion.

The Mountain West is hustling to increase membership, having added UC Davis (in all sports but football) and currently targeting Northern Illinois. Meanwhile, the Pac-12 paused expansion in order to focus on media rights negotiations.

Something else to consider: The Big Ten and SEC don’t want more FCS schools making the jump to the FBS — they believe there are too many mouths to feed already — and have made their feelings known at the highest levels.

Our hunch is that Sacramento State will remain an FCS school at least through this round of western conference realignment.
 
I’m going to make my Projection!

I think PAC12 wants us because of the many reasons, geography in good proximity of conference, funded across the board a exciting new FB Coach and new FB Stadium,

I think the litigation has PAC in a jam financially because they need $$ to pay exit fees to for example a Memphis. But between litigation w MWC, Buyout Costs and currently not an active conference revenue yet they are apprehensive to over extend to buyout a Memphis as example.

Back to Sac St. they like what we’re doing, etc but our brand sends the wrong message to a program like Memphis who thinks unknowingly that we aren’t up to par because of our old image.

I feel confident that if PAC / MWC can settle then the PAC would know its budget to buyout a big team or 2 or 3?

However I think Gloria Nevarez is savage smart aggressive and she will intentionally DRAG this out slowly because she recognizes it has paralyzed PAC expansion while she meanwhile locked down Hawaii (full member), GCU, UTEP, FUCD and NIU without competition.

I think if we get FBS exemption from NCAA we get PAC Invite soon. If this drags out we get PAC invite in few months after ego’s go down because the PAC is going to be pressed by Octagon to sign TV deal to start conference revenue for next FB Season.

Bottom line. I predict we will be in the PAC which is a great conference for us to grow into.we will hear nothing but trash talk from FresNECK until we finally beat them in FB to shut them up.

I think Pres. Wood knows this but he’s tied up with a confidentiality agreement that keeps him unable to share the news.

Anyways… my prediction. I’m feeling this is how it will play out.
 
HornetFootballFan said:
I’m going to make my Projection!

I think PAC12 wants us because of the many reasons, geography in good proximity of conference, funded across the board a exciting new FB Coach and new FB Stadium,

I think the litigation has PAC in a jam financially because they need $$ to pay exit fees to for example a Memphis. But between litigation w MWC, Buyout Costs and currently not an active conference revenue yet they are apprehensive to over extend to buyout a Memphis as example.

Back to Sac St. they like what we’re doing, etc but our brand sends the wrong message to a program like Memphis who thinks unknowingly that we aren’t up to par because of our old image.

I feel confident that if PAC / MWC can settle then the PAC would know its budget to buyout a big team or 2 or 3?

However I think Gloria Nevarez is savage smart aggressive and she will intentionally DRAG this out slowly because she recognizes it has paralyzed PAC expansion while she meanwhile locked down Hawaii (full member), GCU, UTEP, FUCD and NIU without competition.

I think if we get FBS exemption from NCAA we get PAC Invite soon. If this drags out we get PAC invite in few months after ego’s go down because the PAC is going to be pressed by Octagon to sign TV deal to start conference revenue for next FB Season.

Bottom line. I predict we will be in the PAC which is a great conference for us to grow into.we will hear nothing but trash talk from FresNECK until we finally beat them in FB to shut them up.

I think Pres. Wood knows this but he’s tied up with a confidentiality agreement that keeps him unable to share the news.

Anyways… my prediction. I’m feeling this is how it will play out.
Click to expand...
I hope your prediction is right. I would love to be in the PAC.
 
HornetFootballFan said:
I’m going to make my Projection!

I think PAC12 wants us because of the many reasons, geography in good proximity of conference, funded across the board a exciting new FB Coach and new FB Stadium,

I think the litigation has PAC in a jam financially because they need $$ to pay exit fees to for example a Memphis. But between litigation w MWC, Buyout Costs and currently not an active conference revenue yet they are apprehensive to over extend to buyout a Memphis as example.

Back to Sac St. they like what we’re doing, etc but our brand sends the wrong message to a program like Memphis who thinks unknowingly that we aren’t up to par because of our old image.

I feel confident that if PAC / MWC can settle then the PAC would know its budget to buyout a big team or 2 or 3?

However I think Gloria Nevarez is savage smart aggressive and she will intentionally DRAG this out slowly because she recognizes it has paralyzed PAC expansion while she meanwhile locked down Hawaii (full member), GCU, UTEP, FUCD and NIU without competition.

I think if we get FBS exemption from NCAA we get PAC Invite soon. If this drags out we get PAC invite in few months after ego’s go down because the PAC is going to be pressed by Octagon to sign TV deal to start conference revenue for next FB Season.

Bottom line. I predict we will be in the PAC which is a great conference for us to grow into.we will hear nothing but trash talk from FresNECK until we finally beat them in FB to shut them up.

I think Pres. Wood knows this but he’s tied up with a confidentiality agreement that keeps him unable to share the news.

Anyways… my prediction. I’m feeling this is how it will play out.
Click to expand...

Things can always change, nothing is in stone - but SAC to PAC feels pretty damn close to me if you put all the evidence together.

I’ve been a realist and a many times burned fan for 25 years, but this feels different.
 
BOT has money in 27/28 or 28/29 FY for stadium replacement. I am sure everything will be tracking to those dates. ‘Soon’ is subjective.

I thought the State doesn’t fund athletic venues, so this BOT money can’t amount to much other than the monetary replacement of the original 6,000 seat stadium built in 1969.

Utter embarrassment of MBB can’t be helping. Probably worse program in the nation.
 
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