FIRE B.J. HILL!!!!

[bearuncle]

Clearing up something from the discussion on Tevin's minutes & stats: he's playing fewer minutes because he's not the starting point guard, as he had been all of last year and late the year previous. With Wilson & Spence in place, Tevin's moved to being part of a rotation for the 2 & 3 spots: Tate, Tim & him. However, three players for two starting spots...All three have started at varying times already this year, and it could change again at some point.

So, let's lay it out like this:
PG: Wilson, Spence, Svihovec
SG: Unruh, Huskisson, Svihovec, Wilson
3: Unruh, Huskisson, Svihovec, Johnson
F: Barden, Lee, Huskisson, Johnson
C: Osborne, Barden, Lee, McDavis, Keane

That's a ton of flexibility there, depending on what game situations dictate.

OK guys, I guess I'm not sucked in, I'm all in on this thread. So, here goes....first off, this looks like a depth chart to me. Is it Hill's or Cloverdale's?

Let's play some "Billy Ball". I looked at the season productions for the top 8 players getting the most minutes. I came up with a formula using minutes played, points, rebounds, assists and turnovers and tried to express it all in one number.

Here's the formula: points/minutes played + rebounds/minutes played + assists/minutes played - turnovers/minutes played.

This is how the top 8 came out (and to be honest, I wasn't surprised):

1. Tim Huskisson 0.78
2. Dominique Lee 0.71
2. Derrick Barden 0.71
4. Tevin Svihovec 0.51
5. Tate Unruh 0.50
6. Connor Osborne 0.38
7. Jordan Wilson 0.37
8. Corey Spence 0.28

In other words, Tim contributes something positive every 1.28 minutes on the floor. Tevin and Tate are a wash and do something positive every 2 minutes. And so on down the list.

So it's obvious which players are the top 5 producers on the floor and in my opinion need to be on the floor during crunch time for the Bears. This was my thinking which led to my post "what's your starting lineup" even before I sat down and crunched numbers last night.

Tim is a solid producer. Derrick is Derrick. He needs to be on the floor. Dominique should replace Connor. Tevin and Tate are a wash yet have very different games. One is a jump shooter, the other has a more aggressive game and shoots nearly 3x as many free throws and has 11 more assists on the season.

Do the numbers suggest that Tevin should slide back over to the PG position as he has a few times this season? DowntownBear suggests that on paper we shouldn't lose a single conference game. Is he right? Would this lineup have produced a 14-1 season to this point rather than 11-4? I can really see 13-2 as a record. We got handled by Wyoming and MSU. The other 2 losses (Colo St and NM St) could've ended differently with this group on the floor together for more minutes.....

I realize there's a lot more to winning basketball than just stats. But those 5 guys are athletic and their games mesh together well. Tevin, a slashing point guard who isn't afraid to play tough defense on anyone; can contribute with team high assists. Tate, a shooting guard who can really light it up. Tim, a '3' who's as productive and athletic as anyone he'll match up against all season. Derrick and Dominique, interchangable 4 and 5 who might be slightly undersized, but battle harder and are as skilled as anyone in the league who plays their position.

These are ONLY my opinions and observations. Granted, I have a vested interest in this team and in my nephew. But believe me, I haven't spoken with him about any of this. It's just the basketball fan in me thinking out loud.

Can't wait to hear your guys thoughts....

(P.S. please agree with all of this, because if I have to start over and start crunching numbers again, my job performance might suffer...ha!)

 

[larryteeling]

The reason the team is better this year is the improved play at point.Wilson is a freshman an improving every game.

 

[4thegame]

That was last years team (exchanging Connor and Dom). Are you saying Dom makes that much difference?

 

[bearuncle]

The reason the team is better this year is the improved play at point.Wilson is a freshman an improving every game.

I agree that he is improving as the year evolves. Although its tough to beat his first minutes played against Kansas St. He sure didnt look like a Freshman.

Lets compare his firts 15 games to Tevins entire season 2012 -2013. In my formula, last year Tevin was 0.52 compared to his 0.51 this year. Wilson has a 0.37 this years. The one statistic I love about Wilsons is his turnover numbers. He has less than one a game. But has only 1.7 assist per game. That is a nice To/As ratio just not alot of assists out of your point. Remembering the numbers the formula suggests last year Tevin was involved personally with something productive every 2 minutes just like the numbers reveal this year. . Wilson on the other hand is on the floor 2.7 min for his positives regarding a point,rebound or assist minus theturnovers.

So why are we better this year? Number one Tim's numbers are awesome and I see nothing but up sides to his game. Number 2 Lee is a wonderfull addition. We have depth, which allows everyone a sub. Number 3 Competition in practice (anyone remember me using that as a reason for lack of improvement to the team last year) Number 4 these kids are all a year older,smarter and just better. It's the same reason Kentucky doesn't win the NCAA every year kid get better the longer in a system and the older they get. ITs the same reason only freaks of nature can go from highschool to th NBA.

Regarding Tevin back to the point how do we know? The numbers suggest those 5 should be on the floor.

 

[bearuncle]

That was last years team (exchanging Connor and Dom). Are you saying Dom makes that much difference?

The numbers this years suggest he is almost twice as productive. IMO the eye test agrees with the stats he just looks better.

 

[bearsradio]

OK guys, I guess I'm not sucked in, I'm all in on this thread. So, here goes....first off, this looks like a depth chart to me. Is it Hill's or Cloverdale's?

Mine based on where guys have played at varying times this year. Your mileage may vary.

 

[bearuncle]

OK everyone, I promise this will be the last time regarding the BIllyball stuff. IT has been 48 hours since I posted the numbers. I thought at least someone might have some thoughts. In reality, it really doen't matter as the Bears continue to win. And they look good doing it. Last night IMO was as well as they have played all year.

I just can't help this last thought: If you look at last nights stats, it's the exact same five young men I keep mentioning having the greatest impact.

Have a great weekend

 

[Anonymous]

OK everyone, I promise this will be the last time regarding the BIllyball stuff. IT has been 48 hours since I posted the numbers. I thought at least someone might have some thoughts. In reality, it really doen't matter as the Bears continue to win. And they look good doing it. Last night IMO was as well as they have played all year.

I just can't help this last thought: If you look at last nights stats, it's the exact same five young men I keep mentioning having the greatest impact.

Have a great weekend

I think as fans, the more we post, the more interest of the blog we could generate. I can tell you the reason I didn't comment on your post is because it didn't make sense to me. I think basketball is a great deal different than baseball and there are too many variables in basketball to really use the Billy Ball math to put the best team on the floor on any given night. I think it would work if you used it directly against the team we are playing that night and deciding how our starting five numbers match up against their starting five and using the results to decide what five would be best on that night. But to do it just in general, I don't see how it could be accurate. Then again, I don't know enough about it, so I didn't comment. I understand the math but don't understand the logic...maybe "understand" is the wrong word. I understand the math and the logic, I don't see the value in the results or how that helps decide the best starting five. I think stats is the best data source to assist with making the starting five decision.

 

[beardevil39]

I am just glad fans are talking !! I don't agree or disagree with his post and as much fun as it is to armchair quarterback, lets let BJ coach ! Hell, his formula seems to be working ! Lets see how far he can take this team !

 

[303Bear]

I don't agree with or disagree with the Billy Ball numbers either. I think they are informative. But I will say so much more goes into determining who is on the court at a particular moment than just the numbers can reflect. Some guys are just better players coming off the bench than they are as starters, others may not play as well if they go over a certain threshold in minutes played, some will just flat out shut down the key players with defense in key moments (don't know how you reflect that with these numbers), and still others just aren't the most reliable during crunch time. Only a coach really knows and understands what works best for his team and situation. So far I would say the overall results show that Coach Hill has a pretty good understanding of his team.

 

[Anonymous]

I don't agree with or disagree with the Billy Ball numbers either. I think they are informative. But I will say so much more goes into determining who is on the court at a particular moment than just the numbers can reflect. Some guys are just better players coming off the bench than they are as starters, others may not play as well if they go over a certain threshold in minutes played, some will just flat out shut down the key players with defense in key moments (don't know how you reflect that with these numbers), and still others just aren't the most reliable during crunch time. Only a coach really knows and understands what works best for his team and situation. So far I would say the overall results show that Coach Hill has a pretty good understanding of his team.

I agree... But let's not forget that he brought in an entirely new coaching staff that are in their first year together. If they can gel together like this in year one, we might have something special on our hands for years to come.

 

[Anonymous]

OK everyone, I promise this will be the last time regarding the BIllyball stuff. IT has been 48 hours since I posted the numbers. I thought at least someone might have some thoughts. In reality, it really doen't matter as the Bears continue to win. And they look good doing it. Last night IMO was as well as they have played all year.

I just can't help this last thought: If you look at last nights stats, it's the exact same five young men I keep mentioning having the greatest impact.

Have a great weekend

I think as fans, the more we post, the more interest of the blog we could generate. I can tell you the reason I didn't comment on your post is because it didn't make sense to me. I think basketball is a great deal different than baseball and there are too many variables in basketball to really use the Billy Ball math to put the best team on the floor on any given night. I think it would work if you used it directly against the team we are playing that night and deciding how our starting five numbers match up against their starting five and using the results to decide what five would be best on that night. But to do it just in general, I don't see how it could be accurate. Then again, I don't know enough about it, so I didn't comment. I understand the math but don't understand the logic...maybe "understand" is the wrong word. I understand the math and the logic, I don't see the value in the results or how that helps decide the best starting five. I think stats is the best data source to assist with making the starting five decision.

I hope my post did not come across as if I disagree with your numbers or post, because I don't. I just don't know enough about it one way or the other to intelligently speak to or hold an intelligent conversation about the results.

 

[bearuncle]

Thanks for the thoughts, the Billyball thing is just math. Its how most GM's in sports try to put the best team on the field, floor or whatever for the least amount of money. It is all just based on an individuals statistics.

As far as being offended, not a chance. This was simply a fun exercise between Bear wins.

Now, Im off to being a real BB fan as my daughters have tournaments this weekend. Don't worry guys I don't armchair quarterback their teams. I just sit and watch. I promise

 

[DowntownBear]

Nearly three and a half months ago I was chastised for this post. Now after this latest tail spin and that this team has obviously quit playing for him I thought I'd bring it back up. Based on the other threads it seems I may be gaining allies. I feel really bad for the seniors on this team....

 

[Anonymous]

Nearly three and a half months ago I was chastised for this post. Now after this latest tail spin and that this team has obviously quit playing for him I thought I'd bring it back up. Based on the other threads it seems I may be gaining allies. I feel really bad for the seniors on this team....

Wait a second... Okay, so the season hasn't gone the way we want so far. It is still a relatively okay season. I think having a brand new coaching staff from top to bottom, starting freshmen unfamiliar with the program, and having to mix in broken or ineffective players into the mix out of loyalty is what get you the results the Bears have seen so far. This team has a crazy bright future and I think next year will truly be their year. I am still on board this year but do not think Hill is the only culprit that got them to this point, there is a little bit to go around on everyone... I still don't think he should be fired...

 

[Bearsfan24]

I think when you have this big of slide at the end of the season, considering how you started, I feel that it falls on the coaches. Come seasons end you should be playing some of your best ball. They could still make a run in the conference tourney but it's not looking good.

 

[Blofeld]

Hate to say it but this team totally underachieved.

Seeing that shitdog NAU at 3 and we finished 6th in this crappy conference...

Underachieved in like the last 4 seasons... I'll let that speak for itself that is on coaching.

I see this team worse next year, who is going to score, rebound.... show up? :thumbdown:

 

[Brian]

If the team underachieved does that mean that coach Hill overachieves in recruiting?

When you look at UNC basketball in the Big Sky, where do we fit in with facilities, support and money? My guess it's somewhere in the bottom 3rd. The fact that we are competing at this level says something good about what BJ Hil has put together.

 

[Beardown]

Brian brings up a good point. We've got the lowest paid coach in the conference and probably the smallest budget in the conference and done of the worst facilities in the conference. It's amazing we don't finish last every season. In that sense Hill and other coaches are overachieving!

 

[larryteeling]

Hill,does do a lot with less,he's a keeper.