2017 FCS Playoff Projection 10/29

[WILDCAT]

Next week; NAU beats MSU, UCDavis beats SUU, we beat PSU, EWU wins, and UM wins. The following week; we beat ISU, SUU beats NAU, EWU wins, and MSU beats UM.

Weber wins the BSC title and gets a first round BYE in the playoffs. There is a three way tie for second place and one of those three gets left behind. They will cry about it, but that is what happens on the bubble. Someone's bubble get burst. There is a remote chance of the BSC getting four teams in, but there has been too much strength elsewhere in the country.

Who, out of EWU, SUU, and NAU, would you leave behind?

Suu gets in for sure. They have 3 top 25 wins.

If NAU loses to SUU, and Eastern wins out I see Eastern getting the nod, history and a stronger finish helps them

What'll probably happen is if the scenario you described happens, Weber will get a low top 8 seed, probably 8. Suu will host San Diego, and Eastern will play at a MVFC or Southland team

Yeah, I could see that happening. It all depends on how much value they put on good wins, as opposed to bad losses. In that scenario SUU would have losses to Sac and UCDavis. I'm not sure how much weight that would carry. You are right to say that EWU has a better history with playoffs than does NAU. Somebody's ox will get gored.

SUU isn't going to lose next week, it would be a nice gift for Weber but it isn't going to happen. I can see MSU winning @NAU because I'm not sold on NAU. It's probably not going to happen but it wouldn't surprise me if it does.

While unlikely it's not un probable. UC Davis is going to be riding high and the Aggies have played really well at home.

NAU with Case Cookus will not lose to MSU at home. Heck if it wasn't for Cookus getting ejected NAU would have beaten Montana in Missoula. I put Montana State's chances at winning in Flaggy at around 35%.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Remember, teams from the same conference that have already played won't play each other in their first playoff game. If Weber or SUU get a seed and 1st round bye, the earliest they would meet would be in the quarterfinals. It's unlikely that Weber and SUU meet again, especially if one of them gets a seed.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Not likely, but SUU is plenty capable of losing at Davis, especially after losing RB Felala for the season. You only have to look at that blowout loss to Sac to see that it's possible.

With Cookus, NAU wins yesterday (just like Weber probably beats SUU with Cantwell) and shouldn't have any problem with MSU at home.

 

[WILDCAT]

Remember, teams from the same conference that have already played won't play each other in their first playoff game. If Weber or SUU get a seed and 1st round bye, the earliest they would meet would be in the quarterfinals. It's unlikely that Weber and SUU meet again, especially if one of them gets a seed.

The rematch scenario only matters in Round one, after that The NCAA is going to make as few flight games as possible. I would be willing to put money on a Weber/SUU rematch in round 2.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Remember, teams from the same conference that have already played won't play each other in their first playoff game. If Weber or SUU get a seed and 1st round bye, the earliest they would meet would be in the quarterfinals. It's unlikely that Weber and SUU meet again, especially if one of them gets a seed.

The rematch scenario only matters in Round one, after that The NCAA is going to make as few flight games as possible. I would be willing to put money on a Weber/SUU rematch in round 2.

From the NCAA: "Teams from the same conference will not be paired for First Round games or for Second Round games when both teams are playing their first games of the championship (except for teams from the same conference that did not play against each other during the regular season; such teams may play each other in the first and second round)."

If one of them has a first round bye, they won't meet in the second round either.

 

[WILDCAT]

Remember, teams from the same conference that have already played won't play each other in their first playoff game. If Weber or SUU get a seed and 1st round bye, the earliest they would meet would be in the quarterfinals. It's unlikely that Weber and SUU meet again, especially if one of them gets a seed.

The rematch scenario only matters in Round one, after that The NCAA is going to make as few flight games as possible. I would be willing to put money on a Weber/SUU rematch in round 2.

From the NCAA: "Teams from the same conference will not be paired for First Round games or for Second Round games when both teams are playing their first games of the championship (except for teams from the same conference that did not play against each other during the regular season; such teams may play each other in the first and second round)."

If one of them has a first round bye, they won't meet in the second round either.

I stand corrected.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Remember, teams from the same conference that have already played won't play each other in their first playoff game. If Weber or SUU get a seed and 1st round bye, the earliest they would meet would be in the quarterfinals. It's unlikely that Weber and SUU meet again, especially if one of them gets a seed.

The rematch scenario only matters in Round one, after that The NCAA is going to make as few flight games as possible. I would be willing to put money on a Weber/SUU rematch in round 2.

From the NCAA: "Teams from the same conference will not be paired for First Round games or for Second Round games when both teams are playing their first games of the championship (except for teams from the same conference that did not play against each other during the regular season; such teams may play each other in the first and second round)."

If one of them has a first round bye, they won't meet in the second round either.

I stand corrected.

Could meet in 2nd round if both play 1st round and win. But I'm thinking if both win out one of them will get a seed with a 1st round bye.

 

[WILDCAT]

Remember, teams from the same conference that have already played won't play each other in their first playoff game. If Weber or SUU get a seed and 1st round bye, the earliest they would meet would be in the quarterfinals. It's unlikely that Weber and SUU meet again, especially if one of them gets a seed.

The rematch scenario only matters in Round one, after that The NCAA is going to make as few flight games as possible. I would be willing to put money on a Weber/SUU rematch in round 2.

From the NCAA: "Teams from the same conference will not be paired for First Round games or for Second Round games when both teams are playing their first games of the championship (except for teams from the same conference that did not play against each other during the regular season; such teams may play each other in the first and second round)."

If one of them has a first round bye, they won't meet in the second round either.

I stand corrected.

Could meet in 2nd round if both play 1st round and win. But I'm thinking if both win out one of them will get a seed with a 1st round bye.

I agree, for Weber to get the seed SUU needs to lose one more game and Weber needs to win out. For SUU to get the Seed they just need to win out. Fight to the Finish.

 

[oldrunner]

Here is an interesting development at EWU. This could have an impact.

https://twitter.com/srjimallen/status/927327965829926912

 

[WILDCAT]

Here is an interesting development at EWU. This could have an impact.

https://twitter.com/srjimallen/status/927327965829926912

Really how hard is it to stay out of trouble? hno:

 

[oldrunner]

Here is an interesting development at EWU. This could have an impact.

https://twitter.com/srjimallen/status/927327965829926912

Really how hard is it to stay out of trouble? hno:

And SUU lost their #1 running back to a season ending injury. That probably hurts them less than the situation at EWU. Montana is on their third or fourth team QB right now. This is the time of season when about anything can and often does go wrong. Buckle up.

What is the situation with our DBs?

 

[WILDCAT]

There is also a good chance no one from the Big Sky gets a seed. Prior FCS braketology had no Big Sky teams with a seed. A lot could happen though in the last 2 weeks

 

[SWeberCat02]

Since the playoffs expanded to 24 teams, beginning with the 2013 season:

2013 - #3 EWU, #8 UM, NAU (Host), SUU
2014 - #4 EWU, UM (Host), MSU (Host)
2015 - #6 PSU, UM (Host), SUU
2016 - #2 EWU, #7 UND, Cal Poly (Host), WSU

That's 4 teams, 3 teams, 3 teams, and 4 teams;
2 seeds, 1 seed, 1 seed, and 2 seeds;
3/4 host, 3/3 host, 2/3 host, and 3/4 host.

Just based on history and the strength of the conference this season, I'm guessing it's a 3 team conference in 2017, with 1 team getting a seed, and 2 or 3 teams hosting. Similar to 2015 when PSU surprised and won the conference. Weber should at least be hosting a game if they win out. If UM loses again (still have to play at MSU), my prediction is SUU gets a seed, Weber hosts, and NAU goes on the road. If UM wins out, SUU gets a seed, Weber hosts, and UM hosts.

 

[WSUWildcat]

Since the playoffs expanded to 24 teams, beginning with the 2013 season:

2013 - #3 EWU, #8 UM, NAU (Host), SUU
2014 - #4 EWU, UM (Host), MSU (Host)
2015 - #6 PSU, UM (Host), SUU
2016 - #2 EWU, #7 UND, Cal Poly (Host), WSU

That's 4 teams, 3 teams, 3 teams, and 4 teams;
2 seeds, 1 seed, 1 seed, and 2 seeds;
3/4 host, 3/3 host, 2/3 host, and 3/4 host.

Just based on history and the strength of the conference this season, I'm guessing it's a 3 team conference in 2017, with 1 team getting a seed, and 2 or 3 teams hosting. Similar to 2015 when PSU surprised and won the conference. Weber should at least be hosting a game if they win out. If UM loses again (still have to play at MSU), my prediction is SUU gets a seed, Weber hosts, and NAU goes on the road. If UM wins out, SUU gets a seed, Weber hosts, and UM hosts.

Except hosting is more about the bid/money than it is about seeding.

 

[n.ogdencat]

I wouldn't hold my breath on hosting a playoff game, unless we get a seed. We won't be able to outbid other teams. A seed is a definite possibility however.

 

[oldrunner]

My prediction is that it will end up like 2015.

2017- WSU #6, SUU host, EWU/NAU road

 

[SWeberCat02]

Since the playoffs expanded to 24 teams, beginning with the 2013 season:

2013 - #3 EWU, #8 UM, NAU (Host), SUU
2014 - #4 EWU, UM (Host), MSU (Host)
2015 - #6 PSU, UM (Host), SUU
2016 - #2 EWU, #7 UND, Cal Poly (Host), WSU

That's 4 teams, 3 teams, 3 teams, and 4 teams;
2 seeds, 1 seed, 1 seed, and 2 seeds;
3/4 host, 3/3 host, 2/3 host, and 3/4 host.

Just based on history and the strength of the conference this season, I'm guessing it's a 3 team conference in 2017, with 1 team getting a seed, and 2 or 3 teams hosting. Similar to 2015 when PSU surprised and won the conference. Weber should at least be hosting a game if they win out. If UM loses again (still have to play at MSU), my prediction is SUU gets a seed, Weber hosts, and NAU goes on the road. If UM wins out, SUU gets a seed, Weber hosts, and UM hosts.

Except hosting is more about the bid/money than it is about seeding.

Seeds get byes and home games, regardless. The rest of the field isn't seeded but paired geographically, and yes, bid to host. If NAU (2013) and Poly (2016) can win a bid to host, then shame on Weber if they can't. This team deserves to host a game.

 

[SWeberCat02]

My prediction is that it will end up like 2015.

2017- WSU #6, SUU host, EWU/NAU road

Unless SUU loses they get the auto bid, and very unlikely Weber would get a seed over them in that case.

 

[SWeberCat02]

I wouldn't hold my breath on hosting a playoff game, unless we get a seed. We won't be able to outbid other teams. A seed is a definite possibility however.

"4. When determining host institutions for playoff games when both teams are unseeded, criteria shall apply as follows: (1) quality of facility, (2) revenue potential plus estimated net receipts, (3) attendance history and potential, (4) team’s performance (i.e., conference place finish, head-to-head results and number of Division I opponents), and (5) student-athlete well-being (e.g., travel and missed class time)."

hno: Yeah, better hope for a seed.

 

[oldrunner]

My prediction is that it will end up like 2015.

2017- WSU #6, SUU host, EWU/NAU road

Unless SUU loses they get the auto bid, and very unlikely Weber would get a seed over them in that case.

I really believe that Davis has a great chance of beating SUU, at Davis. I don't even think it would be a huge upset. Davis is good, and capable of beating anybody in the BSC. Plus, they have been quite hot as of late. Plus, SUU didn't do well the last time they traveled to the great state of California. I'll be checking in on that game Saturday.