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2017 FCS Playoff Projection 10/29
- Thread starter WSUfan1
- Start date
If the Cats, somehow, find themselves at #1 in the Big Sky on Nov 19, I believe they will get a seed. No way the Big Sky with 13 teams doesn't get a seed.
PurpleBlood
Active member
After hours of analysis, I believe the cats deserve and will get a seed if they take care of business these next two weeks. South Dakota or South Dakota State should fall out after playing each other. Also, Elon and Wofford play JMU and South Carolina. Both teams have barly squeezed out 7-1 records, including overtime this weekend vs bad teams; if they lose we should be ahead.
Projected teams ahead of us:
JMU
NDSU
Jacksonville State
Sam Houston
Central Arkansas
Winner of South Dakota vs South Dakota State
Southern Utah (could easily lose and give weber 7th spot)
Weber at number 8
My only concern for that 8th and final spot is Stoney Brook, but they didn't play the top 2 teams of the conference and lost to an unranked Delaware. Of course this assumes Elon and Wofford lose, and the committee does not have their head up their rear end. I'm hoping SUU does lose because you never know with this committee.
Projected teams ahead of us:
JMU
NDSU
Jacksonville State
Sam Houston
Central Arkansas
Winner of South Dakota vs South Dakota State
Southern Utah (could easily lose and give weber 7th spot)
Weber at number 8
My only concern for that 8th and final spot is Stoney Brook, but they didn't play the top 2 teams of the conference and lost to an unranked Delaware. Of course this assumes Elon and Wofford lose, and the committee does not have their head up their rear end. I'm hoping SUU does lose because you never know with this committee.
PurpleBlood
Active member
"Weber's beat chance at a seed is if SUU loses one and Weber wins out."
Can you tell me who you think deserves to be ahead of us if Wofford and Elon lose? The real question is, does the committee care about the eye test and style points? Stoney Brook, Elon and Wofford all won in overtime this last week and have not been impressive on the scoreboard. We need to make sure these next two games aren't even close.
Can you tell me who you think deserves to be ahead of us if Wofford and Elon lose? The real question is, does the committee care about the eye test and style points? Stoney Brook, Elon and Wofford all won in overtime this last week and have not been impressive on the scoreboard. We need to make sure these next two games aren't even close.
PurpleBlood said:
It's really hard to tell, only two teams that were holding a seed last weekend (South Dakota / NDSU) lost, NDSU will not be losing a seed, I doubt USD will fall out, but it's a possibility. They have a good resume. The Big Sky is looked as being really week this year and it's only because the usual top names are all struggling.
The other teams the FCS committee will be looking at is Western Illinois and Stony Brook. Western Illinois is from the Missouri Valley and the FCS committee loves that conference. Stony Brook has looked strong this year in the CAA which is another stronger looking conference than the Big Sky.
SWWeatherCat
Active member
oldrunner said:I really believe that Davis has a great chance of beating SUU, at Davis. I don't even think it would be a huge upset. Davis is good, and capable of beating anybody in the BSC. Plus, they have been quite hot as of late. Plus, SUU didn't do well the last time they traveled to the great state of California. I'll be checking in on that game Saturday.SWeberCat02 said:
After spending some time analyzing who and how UCD has played at home and who and how SUU has played on the road I still maintain SUU will come away with the W, and think a Davis win would most certainly be an upset. My guess is 32-24 SUU. As for "the last time (SUU) traveled to the (?great) state of California," it was a classic trap game against a very decent SAC team after a huge, emotional win over Northern Iowa. SUU has played better opponents on the road than UCD has played at home.
SWWeatherCat
Active member
WILDCAT said:
I believe that's Weber's only chance. People are speculating without taking into consideration the lack of respect for the BSC this year (and possibly rightfully so) and the lack of recognition of BSC teams not EWU or UM.
oldrunner
Active member
IMO, if the playoff committee is considering quality wins, they must also consider poor quality losses. I think that if WSU wins out, they get the nod, no matter what the other two teams do. WSU did not lose to Sac State, while SUU did. Yes SUU was able to beat us when they speared our QB in the head and knocked him out of the game, but when you look at the rest of the two teams seasons, WSU comes out on top. If NAU wins out, SUU is a moot point and then it becomes a strength of schedule issue.
Our Wildcats just need to take care of business.
Our Wildcats just need to take care of business.
SWeberCat02
Active member
WILDCAT said:
I think Jacks is right because they would have beaten SUU and Weber lost to SUU, assuming SUU finishes in third place.
SWeberCat02
Active member
oldrunner said:
SUU beat Weber plus two FCS teams from strong conferences in non-conference play, including a N Iowa team that's been ranked most of the year. Plus they'd have the auto bid. No way would the committee consider Weber the better team if both win out.
SWeberCat02
Active member
WILDCAT said:
"The second tiebreaker is record against common scheduled conference opponents in descending order."
http://www.bigskyconf.com/news/2012/10/25/fb_1025124525.aspx
From 2012 but assume it hasn't changed
oldrunner
Active member
"The second tiebreaker is record against common scheduled conference opponents in descending order."
I think that is just to work out who gets the BSC auto bid. Everything after that is up to the playoff committee. At that point, I think that all things are on the table for consideration. I would think that the first thing for them to do is decide who is in the 24 team field. The second thing is who the seeded teams will be. The third thing is first round matchups and where the games will be played.
Getting a first round BYE is huge. If you don't get that, the next best thing is a home game. If we win out, I would be disappointed in anything less than a home game. However, if there are co-champions, there is a chance of two BSC teams getting seeded.
I think that is just to work out who gets the BSC auto bid. Everything after that is up to the playoff committee. At that point, I think that all things are on the table for consideration. I would think that the first thing for them to do is decide who is in the 24 team field. The second thing is who the seeded teams will be. The third thing is first round matchups and where the games will be played.
Getting a first round BYE is huge. If you don't get that, the next best thing is a home game. If we win out, I would be disappointed in anything less than a home game. However, if there are co-champions, there is a chance of two BSC teams getting seeded.
http://www.fcs.football/info.asp?type=2017
Currents STATS playoff projections has Weber hosting NAU in the first round. Winner moving on to play @ South Dakota State.
Projected Seeds and their remaining schedules.
#1 James Madison- vs Richmond, @ Elon
#2 Jacksonville State- @ Tenn-Martin, vs Tennessee State
#3 North Dakota State- vs South Dakota, @ Illinois State
#4 Central Arkansas- @ Incarnate Word, vs Abilene Christian
#5 Sam Houston State- @ Abilene Christian, vs Houston Baptist
#6 Elon- @ New Hampshire, vs James Madison
#7 Wofford- @ VMI, @ South Carolina
#8 South Dakota State- vs Illinois State, @ South Dakota
If Weber or any Big Sky team for that matter wants to achieve a seed, they need to hope at least 2 of seeds 6,7,8 lose at least one more time.
Elon for sure has the hardest road, playing @ 6-3, 4-2 New Hampshire and then hosting the undefeated Dukes of James Madison. Could very well lose both, or go 1-1. I don't see Elon beating JMU and I think Elon losing to New Hampshire could also benefit the Big Sky teams still vying for a seed.
Wofford should take care of winless VMI, and I don't see the committee really punishing Wofford too much should they lose to South Carolina. Depending on how bad of course.
And last South Dakota State, the Jackrabbits had a very impressive win over the NDSU Bison. Helping their resume out big time. Best chance for a Jackrabbit loss is @ South Dakota, the Yotes are tough in their dome and do have a shot of beating their instate foe.
Though not seeded, a South Dakota loss to NDSU would be helpful as well.
It's a tough road to run for a Big Sky team to get a seed, but the fact of the matter is the Sky looks weak to the committee's eyes. Gonna need some major dominoes to fall in our favor. Weber doesn't technically need the automatic bid to get a seed. NAU should they win out may get the automatic Bid, but Weber, should they win out, will finish ranked higher, will have one less loss and (at least currently) have a higher sagarin ranking. Of the two, Weber should get the seed.
Currents STATS playoff projections has Weber hosting NAU in the first round. Winner moving on to play @ South Dakota State.
Projected Seeds and their remaining schedules.
#1 James Madison- vs Richmond, @ Elon
#2 Jacksonville State- @ Tenn-Martin, vs Tennessee State
#3 North Dakota State- vs South Dakota, @ Illinois State
#4 Central Arkansas- @ Incarnate Word, vs Abilene Christian
#5 Sam Houston State- @ Abilene Christian, vs Houston Baptist
#6 Elon- @ New Hampshire, vs James Madison
#7 Wofford- @ VMI, @ South Carolina
#8 South Dakota State- vs Illinois State, @ South Dakota
If Weber or any Big Sky team for that matter wants to achieve a seed, they need to hope at least 2 of seeds 6,7,8 lose at least one more time.
Elon for sure has the hardest road, playing @ 6-3, 4-2 New Hampshire and then hosting the undefeated Dukes of James Madison. Could very well lose both, or go 1-1. I don't see Elon beating JMU and I think Elon losing to New Hampshire could also benefit the Big Sky teams still vying for a seed.
Wofford should take care of winless VMI, and I don't see the committee really punishing Wofford too much should they lose to South Carolina. Depending on how bad of course.
And last South Dakota State, the Jackrabbits had a very impressive win over the NDSU Bison. Helping their resume out big time. Best chance for a Jackrabbit loss is @ South Dakota, the Yotes are tough in their dome and do have a shot of beating their instate foe.
Though not seeded, a South Dakota loss to NDSU would be helpful as well.
It's a tough road to run for a Big Sky team to get a seed, but the fact of the matter is the Sky looks weak to the committee's eyes. Gonna need some major dominoes to fall in our favor. Weber doesn't technically need the automatic bid to get a seed. NAU should they win out may get the automatic Bid, but Weber, should they win out, will finish ranked higher, will have one less loss and (at least currently) have a higher sagarin ranking. Of the two, Weber should get the seed.
