eaglesfootball
Active member
i think our offense is good enough to give NDSU some serious problems. it might take another perfect game on offense but we can beat those guys.
-
Hi Guest,
We've updated the site to combine all the forums that were part of the Big Sky Fans Network into one location. This will make it easier to navigate and participate in all the discussions for each school without having to have multiple accounts, etc. We are still working out some tweaks but please let us know if you notice anything.
With the migration, in some circumstances, your username could have been merged with one of your other usernames from the other forums. If this is the case, you can request to change your username in your account details page of your profile. -
Hi Guest, want to participate in the discussions, keep track of read/unread posts and more? Create your free account and increase the benefits of your eGriz.com experience today!
-
Guest, do want an ad free experience on BigSkyFans.com among other benefits? Upgrade your account today!
Simply click your profile name > account upgrades > BigSky Club > choose between the year long subscription (two free months) or month to month
Thanks for the continued support. Cheers!
PLAYOFF PICTURE
- Thread starter marceagfan5
- Start date
Seattle Eagle
Active member
luckyintheorder said:
You make some good points. No doubt we're an offensive juggernaut this season and that will most likely win us more games down the road. The offense isn't my concern. We could very well be a better team than 2010 in terms of talent, but the difference is that the 2010 team had a defense that could take the ball away from opponents and make some stops when we needed them. I haven't seen that this season so much, and I think at this point we are who we are as a team. The defense isn't going to magically start playing a lot better with two games remaining in the regular season, especially considering we have several injuries to key players.
When you look at past champions, the consistent theme is that almost every single one of them had a fairly good defense. We will continue to score loads of points on teams, and I love that. But when all is said and done this team will go as far as the defense takes it. Hopefully we can get favorable draws that don't include Sam Houston State, because we all know how well that's gone the past two outings against those folks.
luckyintheorder
Active member
eaglesfootball said:
+1
luckyintheorder
Active member
Seattle Eagle said:
Yep. I have posted several times that the injuries are actually going to be a strength as the Defense pulls together to achieve results. Although critical of the defensive play calling/game planning for the past couple of years am not critical of the talent and effort on the field. Eastern is winning the games they should with larger margins than in 2010 or 2012, doing a better job of second half adjustments and they are getting stops about 20-25 percent of the time, especially in the second half. Lastly, the offense is the greatest factor for our defense as it puts opposing teams in an untenable position of having to score (perceived or real) each possession to keep pace. It makes teams have to do unnatural things and adds pressure our defense can use. Loved Renaud and company in 2010, but this is a deeper and better D line with several who can penetrate when teams abandon the run to keep up with our O.
Don't really want to see SHSU, but anticipate a difficult draw throughout the playoffs and will probably have to beat SHSU, SE La and/or E Illinios before facing NDSU. Sports Network has us in Eastern Illinios draw. Probable CAA matchup in quarters with William and Mary and E. Ill. in semi's.
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf
Fun to be a part, as a fan, of these young peoples success and success of the program even from across the country.
luckyintheorder
Active member
LDopaPDX said:
+1 defer.
luckyintheorder
Active member
EWURanger said:
Ranger, do you have a link to the "rules" for playoff selection or seeding you reference above?
http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=37917" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
What they're referencing in the above thread is the SRS formula and GPI. Unknown how accurate it is, though. Read it from the top and make your way through. It gives a fairly good explanation if the new system they're using this season.
What they're referencing in the above thread is the SRS formula and GPI. Unknown how accurate it is, though. Read it from the top and make your way through. It gives a fairly good explanation if the new system they're using this season.
From a "game-potential" perspective of drawing the brackets, there is NO WAY they wouldn't set us up for another game against Sam Houston. They are quickly becoming as big of a rival as Montana, who I would expect to be set up against as well. There are too many story archs playing out with SHSU, not to mention playing them in the regular season 2 more years.
Bring 'em back to Cheney! No way would I miss that one, was too much fun last year.
Bring 'em back to Cheney! No way would I miss that one, was too much fun last year.
marceagfan5
Active member
tomq04 said:
If Sam Houston wins out, they probably steal the #3 seed from us. If we win out and Sam Houston doesn't, I think we will receive, at worst, the #3 seed. If sam houston wins out, pretty sure they would bump us to the #4 due to their win, which means we would be heading to their place rather than Sam Houston coming here...
and for all those that think NDSU is unbeatable, I don't think they are as good as advertised. They play in a conference with teams that do not have the type of firepower offenses like the Big Sky and their D is built to dominate the run. The don't often face teams with strong passing offenses, which I think would really hurt them. Even during their playoff runs the last two years, they faced GSU in the semi's both years, wofford and SDSU on the way their, and they get a month to prepare for SHSU's rushing attack in the chipper. NDSU would really struggle stopping us...
luckyintheorder
Active member
EWURanger said:
Danke
Don't get tired of seeing that catch too. The run after is AMAZING! Wow
luckyintheorder
Active member
marceagfan5 said:
+1 NDSU is certainly beatable. Good point on the type of offenses they see week in and out.
I have been thinking for a few weeks that we match-up much better with NDSU than we do with Sam Houston. I think we have a lot more team speed on both sides of the ball the NDSU does. We'd give them some serious problems for sure. No doubt their game plan would be to lean on us, but we've shown that we can stop the run when we need to this year.
I'm not sure how we'd beat SHSU, although I certainly think it's possible. I think the biggest problem for the big Sky teams that have faced them is that we just don't see a lot of offenses like that in this conference.
I'm not sure how we'd beat SHSU, although I certainly think it's possible. I think the biggest problem for the big Sky teams that have faced them is that we just don't see a lot of offenses like that in this conference.
luckyintheorder
Active member
EWURanger said:
. I was trying to remember the 2010 game against NDSU and always thought we were about to put them away but they had that good RB and QB Whitney? got several key first downs running the ball. Not so sure that losing the way they did with fumble on 1 yard line wasn't the springboard for them the next two years. Wouldn't mind taking that away from them this year. Time will tell. Should we go the distance, SHSU may be able to make the same claim on EWU championship after last two meetings outcomes.Have a lot of ideas on how to stop SHSU but won't go all X's and O's. Read option offenses take a lot of defensive discipline. Our D line is playing much better now than early in the season and the young LB crew is finding its form. No worries about DB's even with injuries, they are doing a better job of keeping plays in front of them. EWU has a lot of talent. Stop Bell and Sincere running wild and the rest takes care of itself. This is a BROAD generalization.
luckyintheorder said:EWURanger said:
Have a lot of ideas on how to stop SHSU but won't go all X's and O's. Read option offenses take a lot of defensive discipline. Our D line is playing much better now than early in the season and the young LB crew is finding its form. No worries about DB's even with injuries, they are doing a better job of keeping plays in front of them. EWU has a lot of talent. Stop Bell and Sincere running wild and the rest takes care of itself. This is a BROAD generalization.
Good post. It seems as if many positions on our team are peaking for playoffs. Always love how Eastern manages to do this every year.
Seattle Eagle
Active member
luckyintheorder said:Seattle Eagle said:
Yep. I have posted several times that the injuries are actually going to be a strength as the Defense pulls together to achieve results. Although critical of the defensive play calling/game planning for the past couple of years am not critical of the talent and effort on the field. Eastern is winning the games they should with larger margins than in 2010 or 2012, doing a better job of second half adjustments and they are getting stops about 20-25 percent of the time, especially in the second half. Lastly, the offense is the greatest factor for our defense as it puts opposing teams in an untenable position of having to score (perceived or real) each possession to keep pace. It makes teams have to do unnatural things and adds pressure our defense can use. Loved Renaud and company in 2010, but this is a deeper and better D line with several who can penetrate when teams abandon the run to keep up with our O.
Don't really want to see SHSU, but anticipate a difficult draw throughout the playoffs and will probably have to beat SHSU, SE La and/or E Illinios before facing NDSU. Sports Network has us in Eastern Illinios draw. Probable CAA matchup in quarters with William and Mary and E. Ill. in semi's.
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf
Fun to be a part, as a fan, of these young peoples success and success of the program even from across the country.
I can understand putting things in a positive light with injuries on defense in as much as it allows younger guys to get experience. But I guess I am not understanding how losing 2 All America caliber Safeties is somehow going to make us better right now. Brown and Mcdonald were the starters for a reason. Because they are the best players at those positions.
luckyintheorder
Active member
EWURanger said:
OK, making some progress on understanding the SRS:
Basics http://www.footballperspective.com/five-weeks-in-the-first-edition-of-ncaa-srs-ratings/
Week 11 SRS non FBS (this isn't pretty, MSU isn't in the top 24, EWU SOS is 25th, SRS 5th) this is a mix of FCS and lower divisions. SOS is WEIRD IMO.
http://www.footballperspective.com/non-fbs-college-football-ratings-through-11-weeks/
System for producing SRS ratings.
1) For each game not played at a neutral site, 3 points are given to the road team. After that adjustment, all wins and losses of between 7 and 24 points are recorded exactly as such. This means that a 24-10 road win goes down as +17 for the road team, -17 for the home team.
2) With one exception, wins of 7 or fewer points are scored as 7-point wins and losses of 7 or fewer points are scored as 7 point losses. So a 4-point home win goes down as +7 (and not a 1) and a 1-point home loss is a -7 (and not a -4). The one exception is that road losses of 3 or fewer (and home wins of 3 or fewer) are graded as ties. So a 21-20 home victory goes down as a 0 for both teams.
3) Wins/Losses of more than 24 points are scored as the average between the actual number and 24. This is to avoid giving undue credit to teams that run up the score. So a 75-point home win goes down as a 48-point win.
Once we have a rating for each team in each game, we then adjust each result for strength of schedule. This is an iterative process, where we adjust the ratings hundreds of times (to adjust for SOS, you have to adjust for the SOS of each opponent, and the SOS of each opponent’s opponent, and so on.) in Excel. Then we produce final ratings, where the SRS rating is the sum of the Margin of Victory and Strength of Schedule in every week.
luckyintheorder
Active member
Seattle Eagle said:luckyintheorder said:Seattle Eagle said:
Yep. I have posted several times that the injuries are actually going to be a strength as the Defense pulls together to achieve results. Although critical of the defensive play calling/game planning for the past couple of years am not critical of the talent and effort on the field. Eastern is winning the games they should with larger margins than in 2010 or 2012, doing a better job of second half adjustments and they are getting stops about 20-25 percent of the time, especially in the second half. Lastly, the offense is the greatest factor for our defense as it puts opposing teams in an untenable position of having to score (perceived or real) each possession to keep pace. It makes teams have to do unnatural things and adds pressure our defense can use. Loved Renaud and company in 2010, but this is a deeper and better D line with several who can penetrate when teams abandon the run to keep up with our O.
Don't really want to see SHSU, but anticipate a difficult draw throughout the playoffs and will probably have to beat SHSU, SE La and/or E Illinios before facing NDSU. Sports Network has us in Eastern Illinios draw. Probable CAA matchup in quarters with William and Mary and E. Ill. in semi's.
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf
Fun to be a part, as a fan, of these young peoples success and success of the program even from across the country.
I can understand putting things in a positive light with injuries on defense in as much as it allows younger guys to get experience. But I guess I am not understanding how losing 2 All America caliber Safeties is somehow going to make us better right now. Brown and Mcdonald were the starters for a reason. Because they are the best players at those positions.
Hmmm... Do you expect Brown and Raynes to not return by the playoff's? Your pushback here makes sense if you don't see general defensive improvement as I do (there is a complimentary article in the SR today about 3rd quarter D dominance the last four games). http://www.spokesman.com/eagles/stories/2013/nov/12/eagle-football-benefits-depth-charge/
To speak specifically to your query about the safeties I see that it is more than just getting young guys experience, which many were getting anyway this season -- "injuries are actually going to be a strength as the Defense pulls together to achieve results". This is the element of mental toughness that is achieved through adversity IMO. EWU has quite a few young DB types like Weatheroy, Tucker et.al and seniors like Scheutzle and Murphy who can all play good minutes, add depth and improve during the remainder of the regular season so they can contribute after Brown and Raynes come back to make EWU even deeper in the playoff's. These young men are putting it all out there and showing the desire to compete and leads me to the conclusions I have reached; if they weren't, my concern could mirror your own.
eaglesfootball
Active member
luckyintheorder said:
this srs thing is confusing as hell and mostly seems like a bunch of bs.
On one of the other boards, someone posted this link regarding the myth surrounding defense winning championships: :nod:
http://freakonomics.com/2012/01/20/does-defense-really-win-championships/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I'm in the camp that we are improving and can continue to improve on defense - especially in the basics like tackling. Hamlin doesn't miss many, but there were several times last week where we had kids in position to make a play and they simply whiffed. It never ceases to amaze me in watching practices even late in the season how much fundamentals like tackling are drilled. Gotta keep getting in the reps.
Regarding seeding, I think it's a toss up between Maine, SHSU, and EIU.
Losing to Sam on the road and early in the season certainly helps. So does the fact that this year, our WOU win should count relatively the same as Maine's wins against Norfolk State and Bryant.
EIU has had a great season and challenged itself with a great OOC schedule. That said, they still play in the OVC, and their wins against SIU and ISUr are of only marginal quality at this point.
All three have losable games remaining with SELA, UNH, and JSU and UTM. I think our cause would also be helped by Montana and NAU winning out, placing three Big Sky teams in the top 10, and raising our conference ranking.
If everyone wins out, this will boil down to how the committee treats our loss to Toledo. They can choose to disregard it-which would give us a 2 or 3 seed, or they can prioritize undefeated FCS seasons against an OVC schedule and the likes of Bryant and NSU which would mean we're the 4.
http://freakonomics.com/2012/01/20/does-defense-really-win-championships/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I'm in the camp that we are improving and can continue to improve on defense - especially in the basics like tackling. Hamlin doesn't miss many, but there were several times last week where we had kids in position to make a play and they simply whiffed. It never ceases to amaze me in watching practices even late in the season how much fundamentals like tackling are drilled. Gotta keep getting in the reps.
Regarding seeding, I think it's a toss up between Maine, SHSU, and EIU.
Losing to Sam on the road and early in the season certainly helps. So does the fact that this year, our WOU win should count relatively the same as Maine's wins against Norfolk State and Bryant.
EIU has had a great season and challenged itself with a great OOC schedule. That said, they still play in the OVC, and their wins against SIU and ISUr are of only marginal quality at this point.
All three have losable games remaining with SELA, UNH, and JSU and UTM. I think our cause would also be helped by Montana and NAU winning out, placing three Big Sky teams in the top 10, and raising our conference ranking.
If everyone wins out, this will boil down to how the committee treats our loss to Toledo. They can choose to disregard it-which would give us a 2 or 3 seed, or they can prioritize undefeated FCS seasons against an OVC schedule and the likes of Bryant and NSU which would mean we're the 4.
