PLAYOFF PICTURE

[luckyintheorder]

Is it better to have three strong teams or 5 teams with two or three first round losses? I lean towards first round byes and a home game. SRS ratings are showing the BSC is lowly rated this season (someone else posted our relative strength somewhere)

Not a playoff bracketologist by any means.

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

3 strong with wins the final week and probable byes for all first week.
EWU
NAU
MSU

5 possibles -- 3 first week road games probable UM, SUU and MSU, NAU may have first week home game.
EWU win outright
NAU loss to SUU
UM win over MSU
SUU (yuck)
MSU (should CAA or MVC teams crap the bed last week)

 

[EWU98]

MSU (should CAA or MVC teams crap the bed last week)

Oh you mean like McGhee did on that last play versus SUU? :roll: :mrgreen:

 

[EWURanger]

I really think MSU gets knocked out of the playoff picture this Saturday. Quite frankly, I just don't think they're a very good team this season and UM probably blows them out of the stadium this weekend.

The NAU/SUU and UM/MSU games are obviously huge. If MSU loses, then they are obviously done but if UM loses they are probably going on the road on week 1. If they win, they could be looking at 6-8 seed.

If NAU wins they could be looking at something similar to UM. If they lose, I still think they're in, but go on the road.

SUU is in if they win - bubble team if they don't.

I think SUU will beat NAU in Cedar City, and the Sky gets 4 teams in.

EWU @ 10-2 (Auto-bid and most likely #3 seed)
UM @ 10-2 (At large, home playoff game)
NAU @ 9-3 (At large, road game round 1)
SUU @ 9-3 (At large, road game round 1)

 

[ewueagle2010]

I don't see it. I don't think the Griz are nearly as good as their record and especially as good as their fans think they are. It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see MSU beat them this weekend. As bad as the Cats have looked recently, they'll be pumped for this one. McGhee, Kirk, Bleskin, Daly are all seniors and I think they'll remember the feeling of getting blown up by UM two years ago in Bozeman. I say this with reservations, because the Cats also have quite the history of choking.

But back to UM, I've already mentioned their schedule was weak so I won't beat that drum again, but think about their resume. If they lose to MSU, they'll be 9-3 overall, 5-3 in conference. They could have EASILY been 3-5 as they lucked out against Cal Poly and it took OT to beat Sac State. Now I know, a win is a win, and credit them for finding ways to win those games. However, that's not a good sign for a team that's begging for a seed and home games in the playoffs. In addition, I have no evidence to support this theory, but it wouldn't surprise me if Jordan Johnson doesn't play well this Saturday. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't he leave last week's game with a possible concussion? And wasn't it also reported that he didn't return due to having the flu? Don't concussions and flu like symptoms usually go hand in hand? Not saying UM is covering something up, but let's just say nothing would surprise me at this point. hno:

 

[marceagfan5]

Two thoughts on the playoffs

1.) Here are my thoughts on the seeds

#1 - Easy, NDSU is the one seed

#2-#5 - Goes to EWU, EIU, Maine, and SELA. Those 4 are competing for 2-5 seeds. They could shake out any way you look at it. Maine is the only team with a "testy" game this weekend.

#6-#8 - Mcneese, Griz, NAU, and Towson are fighting for the 3 remaining spots. Coastal and Fordham have an argument, but most likely it's between the 4. What it will probably come down to is NAU and UM on the last seed (if both win). NAU probably gets the nod for their head to head win.


2.) Big Sky teams in the playoffs

This is crazy how it could end up. The Griz are ranked 5th in the country right now, but if MSU and SUU both win the Griz would end up 5th in the Big Sky?

Will the Big Sky get 5 teams in? I know it comes down to who you beat compared over who you lost to, but its crazy to think we could have 5 teams in. If anyone is the odd one out its probably MSU or SUU. I don't think the Griz are left out, too much $$$ at stake.

If NAU isn't seeded, i'd expect they would our 2nd round game (if they win their first) because of geography and the fact we didn't play during the season.

Whatever Montana school makes it and isn't seeded, is probably headed to NDSU.

Just my two cents...

 

[EWURanger]

I don't see it. I don't think the Griz are nearly as good as their record and especially as good as their fans think they are. It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see MSU beat them this weekend. As bad as the Cats have looked recently, they'll be pumped for this one. McGhee, Kirk, Bleskin, Daly are all seniors and I think they'll remember the feeling of getting blown up by UM two years ago in Bozeman. I say this with reservations, because the Cats also have quite the history of choking.

But back to UM, I've already mentioned their schedule was weak so I won't beat that drum again, but think about their resume. If they lose to MSU, they'll be 9-3 overall, 5-3 in conference. They could have EASILY been 3-5 as they lucked out against Cal Poly and it took OT to beat Sac State. Now I know, a win is a win, and credit them for finding ways to win those games. However, that's not a good sign for a team that's begging for a seed and home games in the playoffs. In addition, I have no evidence to support this theory, but it wouldn't surprise me if Jordan Johnson doesn't play well this Saturday. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't he leave last week's game with a possible concussion? And wasn't it also reported that he didn't return due to having the flu? Don't concussions and flu like symptoms usually go hand in hand? Not saying UM is covering something up, but let's just say nothing would surprise me at this point. hno:

You don't think the selection committee would seed a 10-2 Montana team? Remember, there are 8 seeds this year. I'm not saying they will get 1-5, but if they beat Montana State it is VERY probable that they will get in one of those top 8 spots. Trust me, I'm no fan of Montana, but if you think they won't put a 10-2 Montana who is currently #5 in most polls in one of the top 8 seeds, well...I don't know what to tell ya.

 

[ewueagle2010]

I don't see it. I don't think the Griz are nearly as good as their record and especially as good as their fans think they are. It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see MSU beat them this weekend. As bad as the Cats have looked recently, they'll be pumped for this one. McGhee, Kirk, Bleskin, Daly are all seniors and I think they'll remember the feeling of getting blown up by UM two years ago in Bozeman. I say this with reservations, because the Cats also have quite the history of choking.

But back to UM, I've already mentioned their schedule was weak so I won't beat that drum again, but think about their resume. If they lose to MSU, they'll be 9-3 overall, 5-3 in conference. They could have EASILY been 3-5 as they lucked out against Cal Poly and it took OT to beat Sac State. Now I know, a win is a win, and credit them for finding ways to win those games. However, that's not a good sign for a team that's begging for a seed and home games in the playoffs. In addition, I have no evidence to support this theory, but it wouldn't surprise me if Jordan Johnson doesn't play well this Saturday. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't he leave last week's game with a possible concussion? And wasn't it also reported that he didn't return due to having the flu? Don't concussions and flu like symptoms usually go hand in hand? Not saying UM is covering something up, but let's just say nothing would surprise me at this point. hno:

You don't think the selection committee would seed a 10-2 Montana team? Remember, there are 8 seeds this year. I'm not saying they will get 1-5, but if they beat Montana State it is VERY probable that they will get in one of those top 8 spots. Trust me, I'm no fan of Montana, but if you think they won't put a 10-2 Montana who is currently #5 in most polls in one of the top 8 seeds, well...I don't know what to tell ya.

I should have been more clear. What I think is right, and what I think will happen are two different things. Montana will be over hyped no matter what and them being left out of the playoffs at 9-3 is probably not going to happen. But if another team that finishes ahead of them in the Big Sky is left out, that's BS.

 

[LDopaPDX]

I think both Montana and Montana State are Southern Utah fans this week. A Southern Utah win assures them (SUU) of a playoff berth. A T-Bird win would also put Montana State in with a win, as they would be given an edge over NAU due to their head-to-head win. A T-Bird win also helps Montana if they win as they'd assure themselves of a higher seed with NAU having 3-loss. A 2-loss NAU will be seeded in front of Montana given their head-to-head win. With these situations at play, I sort of think the Southern Utah / NAU game is a win-and-your-in, lose-and-your-out game. Montana is almost certainly in regardless, and Montana State is in a must-win position.

 

[HannahO]

I don't see it. I don't think the Griz are nearly as good as their record and especially as good as their fans think they are. It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see MSU beat them this weekend. As bad as the Cats have looked recently, they'll be pumped for this one. McGhee, Kirk, Bleskin, Daly are all seniors and I think they'll remember the feeling of getting blown up by UM two years ago in Bozeman. I say this with reservations, because the Cats also have quite the history of choking.

But back to UM, I've already mentioned their schedule was weak so I won't beat that drum again, but think about their resume. If they lose to MSU, they'll be 9-3 overall, 5-3 in conference. They could have EASILY been 3-5 as they lucked out against Cal Poly and it took OT to beat Sac State. Now I know, a win is a win, and credit them for finding ways to win those games. However, that's not a good sign for a team that's begging for a seed and home games in the playoffs. In addition, I have no evidence to support this theory, but it wouldn't surprise me if Jordan Johnson doesn't play well this Saturday. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't he leave last week's game with a possible concussion? And wasn't it also reported that he didn't return due to having the flu? Don't concussions and flu like symptoms usually go hand in hand? Not saying UM is covering something up, but let's just say nothing would surprise me at this point. hno:

You don't think the selection committee would seed a 10-2 Montana team? Remember, there are 8 seeds this year. I'm not saying they will get 1-5, but if they beat Montana State it is VERY probable that they will get in one of those top 8 spots. Trust me, I'm no fan of Montana, but if you think they won't put a 10-2 Montana who is currently #5 in most polls in one of the top 8 seeds, well...I don't know what to tell ya.

I should have been more clear. What I think is right, and what I think will happen are two different things. Montana will be over hyped no matter what and them being left out of the playoffs at 9-3 is probably not going to happen. But if another team that finishes ahead of them in the Big Sky is left out, that's BS.

This is probably correct (even though a 9-3 UM team would have no wins against ranked teams). But, looking on the bright side, isn't it nice that this topic doesn't have to be filled with angst about whether we'll make the play offs!

 

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I really think MSU gets knocked out of the playoff picture this Saturday. Quite frankly, I just don't think they're a very good team this season and UM probably blows them out of the stadium this weekend.

The NAU/SUU and UM/MSU games are obviously huge. If MSU loses, then they are obviously done but if UM loses they are probably going on the road on week 1. If they win, they could be looking at 6-8 seed.

If NAU wins they could be looking at something similar to UM. If they lose, I still think they're in, but go on the road.

SUU is in if they win - bubble team if they don't.

I think SUU will beat NAU in Cedar City, and the Sky gets 4 teams in.

EWU @ 10-2 (Auto-bid and most likely #3 seed)
UM @ 10-2 (At large, home playoff game)
NAU @ 9-3 (At large, road game round 1)
SUU @ 9-3 (At large, road game round 1)

This exactly. :nod:

 

[HannahO]

I saw this info posted over on eGriz and thought it covered a lot of bases.

How playoff teams are selected:

http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/public/ncaa/fcs+selections/fcs+selections

How the bracket is built:

http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/public/ncaa/fcs+selections/fcs+bracket

The Playoff committee:

http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/public/ncaa/fcs+selections/fcs+committee

 

[EWURanger]

On another note, Toledo is playing N. Illinois on ESPN2 tonight. A Toledo victory would definitely help out our SoS, so...go Rockets?

Some more interesting stuff from the above links:

Margin of victory is not factored into any team’s NCAA SRS rating.

The time of the season in which a game is played (early-season versus late-season games) is not factored into a team’s NCAA SRS rating.

Teams from the same conference will not be paired for first-round games or for second round games when both teams are playing their first games of the championship (except for teams from the same conference that did not play against each other during the regular season; such teams may play each other in the first/second round).

...See: NAU

There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference.

 

[marceagfan5]

On another note, Toledo is playing N. Illinois on ESPN2 tonight. A Toledo victory would definitely help out our SoS, so...go Rockets?

Some more interesting stuff from the above links:

Margin of victory is not factored into any team’s NCAA SRS rating.

The time of the season in which a game is played (early-season versus late-season games) is not factored into a team’s NCAA SRS rating.

Teams from the same conference will not be paired for first-round games or for second round games when both teams are playing their first games of the championship (except for teams from the same conference that did not play against each other during the regular season; such teams may play each other in the first/second round).

...See: NAU

There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference.

Basically they are saying, whatever Big Sky teams aren't seeded are headed to EWU and NDSU in the 2nd round due to geography. Still wonder why Wagner came here last year, thats about as far away as you can get. We would probably get NAU, and NDSU would get someone else (Griz, MSU, or SUU)

 

[Seattle Eagle]

NIU is up 28-17 in the 4th. Interestingly, NIU is the only team that's beaten E. Illinois this year.

 

[EWURanger]

NIU is up 28-17 in the 4th. Interestingly, NIU is the only team that's beaten E. Illinois this year.

They played a pretty good 1st half, but couldn't stop anything in the 2nd. EIU must be a pretty decent to hang with NIU - they looked like a really good team.

 

[Seattle Eagle]

NIU is up 28-17 in the 4th. Interestingly, NIU is the only team that's beaten E. Illinois this year.

They played a pretty good 1st half, but couldn't stop anything in the 2nd. EIU must be a pretty decent to hang with NIU - they looked like a really good team.

They are considerably better than any of the teams in their conference. Their style of play seems very on par with Eastern except that I think we're maybe a little more balanced. The QB will play in the NFL for sure.

 

[Rjones61]

NIU is up 28-17 in the 4th. Interestingly, NIU is the only team that's beaten E. Illinois this year.

They played a pretty good 1st half, but couldn't stop anything in the 2nd. EIU must be a pretty decent to hang with NIU - they looked like a really good team.

They are considerably better than any of the teams in their conference. Their style of play seems very on par with Eastern except that I think we're maybe a little more balanced. The QB will play in the NFL for sure.

Eastern Illinois reminds me A LOT of Eastern Washington.

Stellar Quarterback
Avg crowd attendance ~9,500
Name starts with Eastern
Offensively focused team

I just did a lot of digging on Eastern Illinois. I hope we see them at playoffs. Although they are every bit, if not better than us at offense, they are not prepared defensively for an Eastern Washington team. No one in their conference has a very strong offense and their secondary play is a little iffy. If we meet up, I think Eastern will absolutely torch their defense.

That being said, E. Illinois could easily torch our defense as well. I watched a few games and it seemed to me as if their passing success comes largely due to their VERY impressive o-line play. I like the way our d-line has been playing, but I don't know if any d-line in the FCS can create good penetration. They have only given up 6 sacks in the year. That coupled with a future NFL quarterback, it will take stellar secondary play to slow down E. Illinois.

 

[ewueagle2010]

NIU is up 28-17 in the 4th. Interestingly, NIU is the only team that's beaten E. Illinois this year.

They played a pretty good 1st half, but couldn't stop anything in the 2nd. EIU must be a pretty decent to hang with NIU - they looked like a really good team.

They are considerably better than any of the teams in their conference. Their style of play seems very on par with Eastern except that I think we're maybe a little more balanced. The QB will play in the NFL for sure.

Eastern Illinois reminds me A LOT of Eastern Washington.

Stellar Quarterback
Avg crowd attendance ~9,500
Name starts with Eastern
Offensively focused team

I just did a lot of digging on Eastern Illinois. I hope we see them at playoffs. Although they are every bit, if not better than us at offense, they are not prepared defensively for an Eastern Washington team. No one in their conference has a very strong offense and their secondary play is a little iffy. If we meet up, I think Eastern will absolutely torch their defense.

That being said, E. Illinois could easily torch our defense as well. I watched a few games and it seemed to me as if their passing success comes largely due to their VERY impressive o-line play. I like the way our d-line has been playing, but I don't know if any d-line in the FCS can create good penetration. They have only given up 6 sacks in the year. That coupled with a future NFL quarterback, it will take stellar secondary play to slow down E. Illinois.

The only way I'd want to play them, is if we get the #2 seed and they come to Cheney. I'd never hope to hit the road and go play them.

 

[eaglesfootball]

NIU is up 28-17 in the 4th. Interestingly, NIU is the only team that's beaten E. Illinois this year.

They played a pretty good 1st half, but couldn't stop anything in the 2nd. EIU must be a pretty decent to hang with NIU - they looked like a really good team.

They are considerably better than any of the teams in their conference. Their style of play seems very on par with Eastern except that I think we're maybe a little more balanced. The QB will play in the NFL for sure.

Eastern Illinois reminds me A LOT of Eastern Washington.

Stellar Quarterback
Avg crowd attendance ~9,500
Name starts with Eastern
Offensively focused team

I just did a lot of digging on Eastern Illinois. I hope we see them at playoffs. Although they are every bit, if not better than us at offense, they are not prepared defensively for an Eastern Washington team. No one in their conference has a very strong offense and their secondary play is a little iffy. If we meet up, I think Eastern will absolutely torch their defense.

That being said, E. Illinois could easily torch our defense as well. I watched a few games and it seemed to me as if their passing success comes largely due to their VERY impressive o-line play. I like the way our d-line has been playing, but I don't know if any d-line in the FCS can create good penetration. They have only given up 6 sacks in the year. That coupled with a future NFL quarterback, it will take stellar secondary play to slow down E. Illinois.

i noticed the same things as you. many parallels there.

 

[tomq04]

Maine lost, so they are out of the top 5 seeds...that moves SELA in with their win...who is left? Griz with a win, Costal Carolina should get a top 8 with a win. NAU maybe a top 8 with a win? I still can't figure out the top 10 teams, it really seems to be a top 4 conference.

NDSU, EIU/EWU, SELA