Good post. Lots of speculation to be had on the Thompson/FBS news and I think your points are valid.What do Orr/Wood do at this juncture? Sac12 and PacX have gone silent and cold. They were pushing $75M in NIL not a month ago and now crickets. Jan BOT will show their hand as shovels gotta start digging to meet any chance of moving through the FBS reclassification in time for either MWC or PacX.
Wild hair, do they go FBS indy until an invite from these two? Kinda like a standoff, FBS conference wont take Sac because they are not FBS and Sac cant move to FBS because they are not in a conference. Something has to give.
Do they shoot for the stars and open the purse for a HC/staff that can make the move to FBS, if that is still happening or plug the gap with a short term transitional HC/staff?
Wonder if AT left because he knew he was in over his head as a HC, as a position coach/analyst at Stanford probably paid the same, or does he know the Sac to FBS is all hot air and lost faith?
Last time the Sac12 went dormant, they returned with more NIL pledges. I wouldn't count out the Pac/MW effort until we get firm "no's" from both conferences. Agree with you on the BOT movement. Need to see something no later than spring or I think we can stick a fork in the stadium talk. Dr. Wood could be waiting for the final design package from the architect before going to the BOT for bonds and final approval of the plans.
FBS indy won't happen, but I wouldn't be opposed to that effort. However, if Dr. Wood delivers on a stadium then we'll get a seat at either the Pac or MW. Both conferences need bodies and neither will invite FCS programs until all the FBS candidates are settled (the pending Pac media deal will determine if they can poach an FBS member).
How Wood/Orr handle the HC vacancy will determine how realistic FBS aspirations actually are. The only qualified coach on staff to take over is Richardson, and he probably didn't want the duties of being an HC as the announcement indicated a national search would happen. My take is that a hire from the D2 ranks or below indicates we'll be in the FCS ranks for the foreseeable future. A hire from the D1 ranks (HC experience preferred) means the admin is still invested in this program, and if the hire has FBS HC experience then I think that is very telling. The good news is the timing of Thompson's move came when the coaching carousel is hot, so the Hornets will have plenty interested candidates to chose from.
Coach Thompson to Stanford probably doubles his salary, plus whatever perks Stanford offers. He's also going to work for a HC in Taylor that his already familiar with. I don't think the FBS aspirations had much to do with this move given the timing of gearing up for FBS would be another year or 2 away.
Also of note, hiring a new HC from the outside puts all the Taylor bounce back news to bed for good. I think Taylor is gone at Stanford if they can't get bowl eligible next season. The timing would have lined up with our situation had Coach Thompson had another subpar year so there was a decent chance at that happening. That talk is done if anyone other than Richardson is hired as HC.